Free MLB Sports Betting Bets! Best Odds, EV plays, Arbs, for Wednesday October 1st.
Happy MLB post season! We have 4 wildcard games on tap for today so let's jump directly into the sports betting picks for today!
Bet 1: Red Sox / Yankees Under 7.5 Total Points
Book: PointsBet
Odds: -105 (Can take up to -118)
Both teams are sending out reliable arms — Brayan Bello for Boston and Carlos Rodón for New York — two starters capable of working deep and limiting damage. Bello’s ground-ball approach has proven effective against the Yankees this season, while Rodón’s strikeout stuff can neutralize Boston’s middle order. In a postseason environment, scoring typically tightens as managers rely more heavily on bullpen matchups and limit risky offensive tactics. Game 1 already showcased a low-scoring tone, and with both sides treating every inning like it’s decisive, runs should be at a premium. Combine that with cooler fall conditions and two lineups that have been inconsistent down the stretch, and the under 7.5 looks like the sharper side of this total.
This Under 7.5 total in the Red Sox vs. Yankees matchup presents strong expected value at -105, especially when compared to market consensus. Sharper books like FanDuel, Pinnacle, and Circa have the same line priced between -130 and -152, with a fair value projection closer to -118. That indicates PointsBet’s number is mispriced — offering roughly 5.8% positive EV. When sharp books are shading heavily toward the under, it typically signals respected money backing a lower-scoring outcome. Getting the Under 7.5 at -105 is simply a better price than what the sharpest books are offering — and that’s where the long-term value lies.
Bet 2: Yamamoto Over 7.5 Strikeouts
Book: Bet365
Odds: +135 (Can take up to +122)
Yamamoto has consistently demonstrated elite swing-and-miss stuff, ranking near the top of the league in strikeout rate thanks to his sharp splitter and deceptive fastball command. The Reds’ lineup, meanwhile, has been one of the more strikeout-prone units this season — especially against right-handed pitching — with several young hitters who struggle to adjust to off-speed movement. In high-stakes postseason environments, Yamamoto tends to lean heavily on his strikeout pitches, trusting his stuff rather than pitching to contact. If he’s efficient early and able to work deep into the game, his combination of pitch mix, velocity, and opponent tendencies make clearing 7.5 strikeouts a very realistic outcome.
Bet 3: Littell Under 2.5 Strikeouts
Book: Hard Rock
Odds: -115 (Can take up to -135)
Littell isn’t a high-strikeout arm — he relies more on pitch-to-contact efficiency and ground balls rather than overpowering stuff — which limits his K upside. The Dodgers, meanwhile, are one of the toughest teams in baseball to strike out, featuring a patient lineup that ranks near the top in contact rate and walk percentage against right-handed pitching. They’re disciplined at the plate and rarely chase pitches out of the zone, which further caps Littell’s ability to rack up strikeouts. Considering his recent outings have shown limited swing-and-miss potential and a tendency to exit early due to pitch count or matchup management, staying under 2.5 strikeouts aligns well with both his usage trends and the Dodgers’ elite approach at the plate.
This Littell under 2.5 strikeouts prop offers clear betting value, with Hard Rock listing it at -115, while the fair value is closer to -135, creating a 7.4% edge. That gap indicates the market is undervaluing the likelihood of Littell staying under this number. Sharp books like Circa, FanDuel, and BetMGM are heavily juiced toward the under, suggesting strong consensus that this line should be shorter. Littell isn’t a high-strikeout pitcher to begin with, and facing a disciplined Dodgers lineup that rarely whiffs compounds the challenge. Add in the possibility of an early hook due to matchup usage or pitch count management, and there’s little room for him to exceed this total. With both market support and underlying matchup data pointing in the same direction, this under presents a strong +EV opportunity.
Bet 4: Littell Over / Under 2.5 Strikeouts
Books: NoVig and Hard Rock
Odds: +142 and -115
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take the Over 2.5 Strikeouts on NoVig at +142 odds for $87.17 If this side hits you win $210.
Let's say you take the Under 2.5 Strikeouts on Hard Rock at -115 odds for $112.83 If this side hits you win $210.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $210
No matter the result you make at least $10.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
