Free NFL Sports Betting Bets! Best Odds, EV plays, Arbs, for Monday September 29th.
Happy Monday! We have a MNF double header as the Jets take on the Dolphins. And the Bengals take on the Broncos. Let's jump right into sports betting picks for today!
Bet 1: Garrett Wilson Over 22.5 Longest Reception
Book: ESPNBet
Odds: +105 (Can take up to -103)
Through the first three weeks of the 2025 NFL season, Miami’s secondary has struggled to find consistency. The Dolphins have allowed 715 passing yards, which averages out to roughly 238 yards per game — placing them among the lower half of the league in pass defense. Opposing quarterbacks have been highly efficient, completing 63 of 80 attempts against Miami and averaging an alarming 8.9 yards per pass attempt. On top of that Garrett Wilson is the best WR they've seen all season, combine that with Miami's bad defense this is shaping up to be a great bet.
We're also getting the best odds here on this play. Sharp sportsbooks like DraftKings, Bet365, and Unibet are pricing this same prop around -120 to -114, which implies a higher probability of it hitting. According to PickTheOdds’ fair value model, the true line should be -103, making +105 a profitable outlier — a value opportunity bettors can exploit.
Bet 2: Jaylen Waddle Under 4.5 Receptions
Book: PointsBet
Odds: -115 (Can take up to -125)
Through three games this season, Waddle is averaging just 3.7 receptions per game. In 2025, Waddle is logging a career-low 16.6% target share (i.e. he saw about 16.6 % of all pass attempts thrown his way) while also posting a weak 17.4% targets per route run—both marks are among the worst of his career. Jaylen Waddle will be playing against the Jets who allow the 7TH FEWEST Receptions to WRs on the season.
On this odds side of things we're getting the best number by far at -115 on PointsBet.
1) FanDuel: -154
2) Pinnacle: -180
3) DraftKings: -150
All of these other sportsbooks are giving Waddle a much HIGHER chance of going UNDER 4.5 receptions which leaves almost a 4% EV on this bet at -115.
Bet 3: Mike Gesicki Over 25.5 Receiving Yards
Book: Fanatics
Odds: +105 (Can take up to +102)
With Fant sidelined, Gesicki steps into extra routes on MNF. Gesicki/Browning had a connection last season. Fant run a route on 35% of pass plays and drawn a 15.7% target share through three weeks, Gesicki looks to fill right into this role. With Jamar Chase having a hard assignment tonight in Pat Surtain, I could see Browning taking the easier passes to avoid Surtain aka Gesicki.
Fanatics is the only book offering this bet at + money. Other books (FanDuel, UniBet, PointsBet) all have this bet at - money indicating they believe Gesicki will go OVER 25.5. Fanatics having this at + indicates they believe Gesicki will go UNDER 25.5, it's more likely that the other three sportsbooks are more accurate with their projection so getting this at +105 gives us a 3.3% edge.
Bet #4: Total TDS 1Q Over / Under 0.5
Books: Bet365 and FanDuel
Odds: -170 and +192
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take the Over 0.5 Total TDS 1Q on Bet365 at -170 odds for $129.54. If this side hits you win $205.
Let's say you take the Under 0.5 Total TDS 1Q on FanDuel at +192 odds for $70.46. If this side hits you win $205.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $205
No matter the result you make at least $5
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
