Happy Tuesday! Yesterday's picks went 2/4. Incarnate Word unfortunately lost at the buzzer, and the Red Wings dominated the Canucks resulting in no offense for the them. 50% isn't good enough, let's try and go for a sweep today. For the slate today we have 2 NBA games, 10 NHL games, and 35 CBB games. Let's jump right into the sports betting picks for tonight!
Bet #1 Jalen Suggs Under 4.5 Assists
Book: BetWay
Odds: +150 (Can take up to +139)
Jalen Suggs profiles well for an under 4.5-assist look tonight. He’s stayed under this number in 4 of his last 5 games, and his season average of 4.2 assists already sits below the line. Miami’s defense is also a tough matchup — they consistently force slower possessions, limit drive-and-kick creation, and rank among the stingier teams in opponent assist opportunities thanks to strong point-of-attack pressure and disciplined rotations. Suggs’ usage has leaned more toward scoring and defensive impact than pure facilitation lately, and with Miami’s tendency to force the ball out of primary handlers’ hands, the environment naturally caps his assist ceiling. All of that points toward another game where staying under 4.5 is the more likely outcome.
This play grades out as a strong +EV spot because the model lists it at 4.8% EV, with sharp books pricing the under between +116 to +122, which collectively implies a fair value of around +139. When the sharper side of the market is sitting roughly 10–30 cents shorter than what you can bet it at, that’s a clear signal the +150 number is mispriced. Grabbing +150 gives you meaningful closing-line value compared to the consensus sharp projection, and anytime you’re getting a price above fair value—especially by this margin—you’re locking in a mathematically profitable position long-term.
Bet #2 Josh Morrissey Under 0.5 Points
Book: UniBet
Odds: +104 (Can take up to -101)
This Morrissey under 0.5 points play shows clear value because the model grades it at 2.5% EV, with sharp books sitting between -114 and -120 on the same prop — a strong indicator that the true price should be shorter. That sharp consensus translates to a fair value of roughly -101, meaning the market believes the under is favored, not plus-money. Being able to grab it at +104 (or in similar cases +150 when offered elsewhere) gives you a massive edge relative to where the most respected books are pricing it. Any time you can bet a line at a price significantly better than fair value, especially when sharps are aligned on the opposite side of the market, you’re locking in long-term +EV.
Bet #3 Loyola Maryland Moneyline
Book: Bet365
Odds: -105 (Can take up to -110)
Loyola Maryland presents an intriguing moneyline angle thanks to steady offensive improvement and a profile that gives them a real chance to outperform expectations. The Greyhounds are scoring in the mid-70s per game and have already shown they can produce efficient nights on offense when their spacing and guard play are clicking. Their lead contributors have been reliable, with strong backcourt production and enough depth to avoid the long scoring droughts that usually bury mid-major underdogs. Loyola has also shown they can compete in pace-controlled, grind-it-out games — a style that naturally favors underdogs by reducing variance. With opponents often struggling to create separation against their defensive pressure and Loyola demonstrating the ability to capitalize on momentum swings, the Greyhounds offer the kind of statistical profile and matchup value that makes their moneyline a legitimate, live play.
This Loyola Maryland moneyline grades as a +EV play because the model shows a 2.4% EV, with sharp books pricing the Greyhounds between -118 and -125, signaling that the true market consensus views Loyola as a stronger favorite than the available number. That sharp alignment produces a fair value of -110, meaning any price better than that—such as -105 here—creates immediate value relative to where the most respected books are sitting. Anytime you're able to bet a side at a significantly better number than both the sharp consensus and the fair price, you're capturing long-term edge, and this Loyola Maryland line fits that profile cleanly.
Bet #4 Mamukelashvili Over 9.5 Points / Under 9.5 Points
Books: FanDuel / MGM
Odds: +136 / -105
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Mamukelashvili Over 9.5 Points on FanDuel at +136 odds for $90.55. If this side hits you win $213.
Let's say you take Mamukelashvili Under 9.5 Points on MGM at -105 odds for $109.45. If this side hits you win $213.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $213
No matter the result you make at least $13.