Happy Monday! We're starting off the week strong with MNF, a trio of NBA games, 5 NHL games, and 7 CBB to cap off the slate. Let's start the week on a good note by going 4/4 on the sports betting picks for today!
Bet #1 Omarion Hampton Over 11.5 Rush Attempts
Book: Hard Rock
Odds: +100 (Can take up to -107)
Omarion Hampton looks well-positioned to clear 11.5 rush attempts — before his injury he went over this number in 4 of 5 games, posting carry totals of 15, 8, 19, 12, and 12 while averaging 13.2 attempts per game, showing the Chargers trusted him with steady volume when on the field. Add in the coaching context: Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman have long been committed to establishing the run, consistently building offenses around a physical lead back and a high-volume ground game. With Hampton healthy again and returning to a system that wants to run the ball, his prior usage plus the run-first philosophy makes Over 11.5 rush attempts a strong, data-backed play.
This is a +EV bet purely from a market and pricing standpoint: the sharp books are all sitting between -108 and -123 on Hampton’s Over 11.5 rush attempts, creating a consensus fair value of about -107. When the true market price is projected at -107 but a sportsbook is offering +100, you’re getting a clear pricing inefficiency — meaning you’re paying less than what the sharp side believes the bet is actually worth. That discrepancy produces the 3.2% Expected Value shown in the model, driven entirely by the gap between sharp odds and the available number. No narratives, no matchup assumptions — just a straight mathematical edge created by the market.
Bet #2 Donte DiVincenzo Over 3.5 Rebounds
Book: PointsBet
Odds: -115 (Can take up to -129)
Donte DiVincenzo is a solid bet to clear 3.5 rebounds — he’s averaging 4.0 rebounds on the year and has gone 4, 4, 4, 5 in his last four games, showing both consistency and an upward short-term trend. An Over 3.5 only requires a 4-rebound outing, which DiVincenzo posts more often than not given his season mark and recent form, and his role as a positionally versatile wing puts him around the glass on both ends (long rebounds on misses, defensive boards on opponent possessions). Put simply: the season average (4.0) already sits above the line and the four-game streak of 4+ boards demonstrates it’s not a fluke — that combination of steady season production plus current form makes Donte DiVincenzo OVER 3.5 rebounds a data-backed, blog-ready play.
This is a pure market +EV: sharp books are laying action at -149 / -152 / -148, which the model aggregates into a fair value around -129, while the retail market is offering -115 — that gap between the sharp-implied price and the available number is where the edge lives. In plain terms the sharps are valuing the prop substantially worse for the book than the public price implies, so buying it at -115 means you’re paying less than what the sharp consensus says it’s actually worth; that pricing discrepancy is what produces the ~5.3% expected value shown on the card. No matchup talk needed — just a measurable, repeatable edge created by mispricing between sharp consensus and the available market.
Bet #3 Red Wings / Canucks Over 6.5 Total Points
Book: BetSafe
Odds: +118 (Can take up to -101)
This is a clear +EV spot purely from market pricing: sharp books are laying action around -106 / -110 / -110, which the model aggregates into a fair value near -101, yet the retail market is offering +118 on the Over 6.5 — that gap between the sharp-implied price and the available number is where the edge lives. In other words, sharps collectively price the bet as slightly favorite-to-win for the bettor (around -101), but you can buy it at +118 from the public market, producing the substantial ~9.7% expected value shown on the card. No matchup narrative needed — it’s a repeatable, math-first opportunity created by a persistent mispricing between sharp consensus and retail lines.
Bet #4 Incarnate Word Moneyline
Book: PolyMarket
Odds: -104 (Can take up to -112)
Incarnate Word is a worthy moneyline play against a struggling New Orleans squad, as the Privateers sit at 2–7 and have consistently shown weaknesses on both ends of the floor, ranking near the bottom of the Southland in offensive efficiency and defensive scoring margin. Meanwhile, Incarnate Word Cardinals men's basketball have been the more complete and competitive team, showing better shooting efficiency, stronger guard play, and a more stable defensive profile than New Orleans Privateers men's basketball. When you combine New Orleans’ poor record, their tendency to fade late in games, and Incarnate Word’s overall stronger statistical profile, backing Incarnate Word on the moneyline is a data-supported, blog-ready pick.
This is a pure market +EV: the sharp books are dealing Incarnate Word in the -118 / -130 / -124 range, which the model blends into a fair value of roughly -112, while the retail market is still hanging -104 — and that gap between the sharp-implied price and the available number is where the edge comes from. In simple terms, the sharp side of the market is pricing this outcome meaningfully shorter than what the public-facing book is offering, so grabbing -104 means you’re paying less than what the consensus sharp valuation says the line is actually worth. That discrepancy creates the ~3.5% EV shown on the card, giving you a quantifiable, repeatable edge based purely on mispricing — no matchup or narrative required.
Bet #5 Davis Over 0.25 / Under 0.5 Sacks
Books: DraftKings / Hard Rock
Odds: +278 / -220
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Davis Over 0.25 Sacks on DraftKings at +278 odds for $55.57. If this side hits you win $210.
Let's say you take Davis Over 0.25 Sacks on DraftKings at -220 odds for $144.43. If this side hits you win $210.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $210
No matter the result you make at least $10.