Happy Friday! We've finally made it to the end of the week and we have a STACKED slate to cap off the week. 12 NBA games, 5 NHL games, 21 CBB games, and 4 CFB games to round us out. Without wasting anymore time let's jump straight into the sports betting picks for tonight!
Bet #1 Chet Holmgren Over 1.5 Assists
Book: Bet365
Odds: -105 (Can take up to -118)
=Chet Holmgren over 1.5 assists makes sense tonight when you look at both his season-long role and his recent usage. He’s averaging 1.8 assists per game on the year, which already sits above this line, and he’s cleared 1.5 assists in 3 of his last 5 games, showing consistent involvement as a secondary playmaker. Holmgren gets plenty of touches at the top of the key in OKC’s offense, where his passing is a natural counter to defenses collapsing on his drives or overplaying Shai and J-Dub. He also creates assists through kick-outs after offensive rebounds and quick handoff actions that frequently lead to shot opportunities. With his minutes steady and the ball in his hands more than most centers, the volume is there — and the matchup should provide enough pace and possessions for him to rack up at least two assists again tonight.
This Holmgren assists prop is +EV because Bet365 is hanging Over 1.5 at -105, which is significantly better than the sharp books’ pricing—sharps have this same over lined between -146 and -138, indicating they project a much higher probability of Holmgren clearing this number. When you convert those sharp odds into an aggregate fair value, you get roughly -118, meaning the true line is priced well above the -105 we’re able to bet. That discrepancy creates an edge of about 5.8% EV, driven by the market-wide agreement that this over should be much more expensive than what Bet365 is offering.
Bet #2 Mikko Rantanen Over 2.5 Shots On Goal
Book: NoVig
Odds: -117 (Can take up to -124)
Mikko Rantanen over 2.5 shots on goal sets up well tonight, especially with how active he’s been recently. He’s covered this line in four straight games (4, 4, 3, 3), showing consistent shooting volume and a clear willingness to look for his own chances. On the season he’s sitting at 35 points, which ranks 7th in the league, and players producing at that level generally carry steady shot equity every night. The matchup boosts this even further — the Sharks allow over 3 goals per game, one of the weakest defensive marks in the NHL, meaning Colorado’s top line should generate plenty of offensive zone time and high-quality opportunities. Rantanen logs heavy minutes, operates on PP1, and is a focal point of the attack, so with his recent shot trends and a soft defensive opponent, he’s in a great spot to hit 3+ shots again tonight.
This Rantanen over 2.5 SOG play is +EV because we're getting –117, which is notably better than where the sharp books are pricing the same prop — –150, –137, and –146 — signaling that the true likelihood of the over hitting is higher than what our book is implying. The fair value of –124 further confirms that –117 is mispriced in our favor, giving us built-in closing line value. With an EV% of 2.6%, the difference between the market’s sharper projection and the offered odds creates a positive expected return, making this a mathematically profitable long-term wager.
Bet #3 VCU -18.5 Spread
Book: Hard Rock
Odds: -115 (Can take up to -119)
This VCU –18.5 spread is +EV because we're getting –115, which is a much better price than where the sharp books have it listed at –135, –134, and –130, indicating stronger market confidence in VCU covering this number. The fair value of –119 shows that the true price should be shorter than what we're offered, giving us built-in value on the wager. With an EV% of 1.6%, the discrepancy between the sharp odds and the available line creates a mathematically profitable edge, making this a solid positive-expected-value play.
Bet #4 North Texas Over 34.5 Team Points
Book: Bet365
Odds: -105 (Can take up to -109)
North Texas over 34.5 team points is one of the strongest angles on the board tonight, as they’ve cleared this number in 11 of 12 games and come in with one of the best offenses in the country, averaging nearly 47 points per game. They’re explosive on both the ground and through the air, stacking up 500+ total yards per game and consistently putting defenses under pressure. With tonight being the conference championship, the Mean Green should be fully dialed in, leaning on their elite passing attack to push tempo and finish drives. Tulane has shown cracks defensively throughout the year, especially against high-powered offenses, and North Texas has repeatedly shown they can take advantage. Given their season-long scoring consistency and the elevated stakes, 35+ points is well within reach again tonight.
This North Texas team total over 34.5 is +EV because we're getting –105, while sharp books are all pricing the same prop significantly shorter at –123, –130, and –136, indicating a stronger market expectation that North Texas clears this number. The fair value of –109 reinforces that the true odds should be worse than what we’re offered, creating built-in value on the bet. With a 2.0% EV%, the mismatch between the sharper market lines and the available price at –105 produces a mathematically profitable edge, making this a strong positive-expected-value play.
Bet 5: Jaquez Jr Over 4.5 / Under 4.5 Rebounds
Books: Hard Rock / UniBet
Odds: +125 / +105
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Jaquez Jr Over 4.5 Rebounds on Hard Rock at +125 odds for $95.35. If this side hits you win $214.
Let's say you take Jaquez Jr Under 4.5 Rebounds on UniBet at +105 odds for $104.65. If this side hits you win $214.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $214
No matter the result you make at least $14.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
