Happy Thursday! We're coming off back to back 2/3 days. Yesterday San Diego State hooked us by 0.5 yes 0.5 absolutely brutal there. But tonight looks like a great night to go 4/4 as we have TNF Lions vs Cowboys, 5 NBA games, 10 NHL games, and 10 CBB games. Let's jump straight into the sports betting picks for tonight!
Bet #1 Jameson Williams Over 0.5 Touchdowns
Book: PointsBet
Odds: -115 (Can take up to -121)
With Amon-Ra St. Brown likely sidelined, Jameson Williams steps into a clear WR1 role, and we already saw what that looks like last week — once St. Brown left the game, Williams exploded for 7 receptions, 110 yards, and a touchdown on heavy volume. He now draws a vulnerable Cowboys defense that has struggled all season against explosive plays, ranking near the bottom of the league in allowing deep passes and WR touchdowns. With Detroit forced to funnel targets toward Williams and his elite downfield speed creating constant big-play potential, the opportunity and matchup make over 0.5 touchdowns a strong look.
This is a +EV bet because we’re getting Jameson Williams Anytime TD at -115, while the sharp books are all pricing this higher — with major operators sitting at -127, -140, and -121 — signaling stronger confidence in the touchdown outcome than the market you're betting into. The fair value comes in at -121, meaning the true expected price is worse than what you’re able to grab, giving you a clear mathematical edge. That difference produces a +2.3% Expected Value, showing that the wager is priced in your favor long-term, making this an efficient and profitable spot to take the over 0.5 TD's.
Bet #2 Joel Embiid Over 6.5 Rebounds
Book: BetRivers
Odds: +102 (Can take up to -107)
This is a +EV bet because we’re getting Joel Embiid Over 6.5 rebounds at +102, while sharp books are all pricing the same prop significantly lower — -136, -114, and -116 — indicating the true market expectation is much stronger than the price you’re betting into. The fair value sits at -107, meaning the line you’re getting is far better than the calculated true odds, creating a clear mathematical edge reflected in the +4.4% EV. Anytime you’re able to grab plus money on a line the sharper markets value as a solid favorite, it’s a strong positive-EV opportunity.
Bet #3 Anze Kopitar Over 1.5 Shots On Goal
Book: UniBet
Odds: +115 (Can take up to +101)
This is a strong +EV spot because we’re getting Anze Kopitar Over 1.5 SOG at +115, while sharp books are pricing the same prop much shorter at -115, -120, and -115, which signals that the true probability of this hitting is higher than what the market you’re betting into implies. The fair value is +101, meaning anything above that number is considered an edge — and grabbing +115 creates a sizable advantage backed by the math. That discrepancy produces a +7.2% Expected Value, making this one of the higher-EV SOG spots on the board and a clear value compared to where the sharper markets have it priced
Bet #4 Cal State Bakersfield +5.0 Spread
Book: Caesars
Odds: -110 (Can take up to -113)
Cal State Bakersfield +5.0 is appealing because they play a slower, grind-it-out style that naturally keeps games close, and their physical defense and strong rebounding — averaging around 35 boards per game last season — help limit opponent runs and second-chance points. They’ve also improved their offensive efficiency, shooting nearly 38% from three this year, giving them the scoring punch to stay within a few possessions in a low-tempo matchup. Bakersfield’s ability to control pace, defend without fouling, and generate extra possessions on the glass makes it difficult for opponents to create separation, giving the Roadrunners a strong statistical foundation to cover the five-point spread.
Cal State Bakersfield +5 at -110 grades out as a +EV play because the sharp books are all pricing this side shorter — –121, –127, and –125 — indicating stronger underlying support for Bakersfield than the market is giving you. With a calculated fair value of –113, you’re effectively getting a cheaper price than what the true odds suggest, creating a built-in edge. That discrepancy between the available line and the sharp consensus produces the 1.4% EV, showing that over the long run this is the type of mispriced number that leads to profitable outcomes.
Bet 5: Murray Boyles Over 4.5 / Under 4.5 Rebounds
Books: BookMaker / BetWay
Odds: +115 / +120
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Murray Boyles Over 4.5 Rebounds on BookMaker at +115 odds for $101.15. If this side hits you win $217.
Let's say you take Murray Boyles Under 4.5 Rebounds on Betway at +120 odds for $98.95. If this side hits you win $217.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $217
No matter the result you make at least $17.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
