Happy Wednesday! Our picks went 2/3 yesterday with Nylander unfortunately being the one to sell us. Again let's try and aim for a sweep today. On deck for today we have 9 NBA games, 5 NHL games, and a monster 78 college basketball games. Let's jump right into the sports betting picks for tonight!
Bet #1 Steven Adams Over 5.5 Points
Book: PointsBet
Odds: +110 (Can take up to -103)
Steven Adams has been delivering solid offensive efficiency lately, clearing 5.5 points in 3 of his last 5 games and averaging strong finishing numbers around the rim. With Domantas Sabonis out for the Kings, Sacramento loses its best interior defender and rim protector, creating a noticeably softer paint environment for Adams to operate in. His elite offensive-rebounding rate consistently generates second-chance looks, and the matchup projects even more putback opportunities with the Kings now undersized inside. Combine his recent consistency, high-percentage shot profile, and a weakened opposing frontcourt, and Adams is in a great spot to go over 5.5 points.
This bet is +EV because the +110 price (implied ~47.6%) is noticeably higher than the fair value of -103 (implied ~50.7%), creating a 6.4% expected edge. Sharp books sitting between -114 and -125 signal an even stronger true probability, meaning the market consensus believes Adams goes over 5.5 more often than the offered line suggests. When the sharp side and the model both value the outcome higher than the sportsbook’s number, you’re effectively getting paid above the true odds — turning this into a positive-expectation play.
Bet #2 Matvei Michkov Over 0.5 Points
Book: UniBet
Odds: +104 (Can take up to -104)
Matvei Michkov is trending in the right direction offensively, putting up 4 points in his last 4 games and consistently generating high-danger chances with his speed and creativity. He’s been earning more trust and usage at even strength and on the power play, which naturally boosts his point-producing opportunities. On top of that, he draws a great matchup against a Sabres team allowing over 3 goals per game, one of the weaker defensive averages in the league. Buffalo has struggled with defensive-zone coverage and rebound control, which plays right into Michkov’s strengths as an instinctive scorer who thrives around loose pucks and broken plays. With his recent production, elevated role, and a favorable opponent, over 0.5 points is well-supported
This is +EV because the sharp market and fair-value both put the chance of Michkov recording at least one point noticeably higher than Unibet’s +104 price implies. Three sharp books are lined up around -120 / -119 / -115 (implied probabilities ≈54–55%), which averages to roughly a 54.1% true probability; Unibet’s +104 converts to an implied probability of only ≈49.0%. If the sharps are right, that ~5.1 percentage-point gap yields an expected return of about 10% (0.541×2.04 − 1 ≈ 0.104), so a one-unit stake would return ~1.10 units on average. In short: multiple sharp books clustering in the mid-50% range, plus a separate fair-value estimate that sits well above the +104 market, creates a clear value opportunity — you’re being paid better than the market thinks you should be.
Bet #3 San Diego State Over 77.5 Team Points
Book: Caesars
Odds: +100 (Can take up to -105)
This is +EV because sharp money and our fair-value model both put San Diego State’s chance of clearing 77.5 notably above the +100 price on offer. Three sharps are clustered at about -112 / -125 / -125, which convert to implied probabilities of ~52.8%, 55.6% and 55.6% (average ≈54.65%), while Unibet’s +100 is only a 50% price; if the sharps are right that gap produces ~9.3% edge on the +100. Even the fair-value line shown (-105, ≈51.2% implied) suggests a smaller but real edge (~2.4% EV). In short: multiple professional books backing the over in the mid-50s, plus a fair-value estimate above market, indicate the market is underpricing SDSU’s scoring probability and makes +100 a value play.
Bet 4: Hart Over 6.5 / Under 6.5 Assists
Books: MGM / PointsBet
Odds: +135 / +100
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Hart Over 6.5 Assists on MGM at +135 odds for $91.95. If this side hits you win $216.
Let's say you take Hart Under 6.5 Assists on PointsBet at +100 odds for $108.05. If this side hits you win $216.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $216
No matter the result you make at least $16.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
