Happy Tuesday! Our picks from yesterday went 3/4 with sadly Batum being the one to sell us. He only took two shots but unfortunately both were 3's and he nailed both of them. 75% isn't bad though, but we can do better. We have a stacked NHL slate, 6 NBA games, and a ton of CBB in action. Let's jump directly into the sports betting picks for today!
Bet #1 William Nylander Over 2.5 Shots On Goal
Book: Bet365
Odds: +135 (Can take up to +121)
William Nylander continues to be one of Toronto’s most consistent offensive drivers, and taking him Over 2.5 Shots on Goal is supported by both recent form and season-long production. He’s covered this line in 3 of his last 5 games, showing steady shot volume and a willingness to create offense every night. Nylander already has 32 points on the season, tied for 9th in the league, underscoring just how heavily involved he is in the Leafs’ attack and how often the puck is on his stick. His matchup also boosts the projection: the Florida Panthers are allowing over 3 goals per game, a defensive profile that often leads to elevated offensive chances and sustained pressure from opposing top lines. With his usage, scoring pace, recent shot trends, and a favorable opponent, Nylander is well-positioned to clear 2.5 SOG again.
This is a +EV bet because Bet365 is offering Over 2.5 shots for Nylander at +135, which is significantly better than both the sharp books’ prices (+101, +113, +102) and the calculated fair value of +121. Since the available line (+135) is longer than what sharp markets deem accurate (+121), the bettor is getting extra implied probability value, resulting in a calculated expected value of +6.3%. In short, you're betting at a price that is meaningfully above the true market-efficient line, creating a positive long-term edge.
Bet #2: Trey Murphy Over 19.5 Points
Book: FanDuel
Odds: +122 (Can take up to +109)
Trey Murphy III has taken a clear offensive leap this season, and his recent scoring output makes the Over 19.5 Points prop highly appealing. He’s cleared this number in 3 of his last 5 games, fueled by an uptick in usage, confidence, and shot volume as New Orleans continues to lean on him as a primary perimeter scorer. Over that stretch he’s averaging over 24 points per game, showcasing not only efficiency from deep but also improved aggression getting downhill and into the mid-range. His season-long scoring jump reflects a player who’s firmly earning a larger offensive role, and with his combination of minutes, touches, and shot attempts trending upward, Murphy’s current form makes 19.5 a very reachable benchmark — especially given the consistency he’s shown against both strong and weak defenses.
This is a +EV bet because FanDuel is offering Over 19.5 points for Murphy III at +122, which is noticeably better than the sharp books’ prices (–101, –104, –112) and the calculated fair value of +109. Since +122 exceeds what the efficient market suggests (+109), you're getting a price that reflects a lower implied probability than the true expectation, creating a measurable edge. That gap produces an expected value of +6.2%, meaning this wager should be profitable over the long run when taken at these odds
Bet #3 Syracuse +8.0 Spread
Book: UniBet
Odds: -112 (Can take up to -119)
Syracuse getting +8.0 at home against Tennessee offers real value, especially with the Orange playing in the JMA Wireless Dome where they’re 3–0 this season and holding opponents to just 30% shooting. That home-court environment consistently boosts their defensive intensity and pace. Syracuse has also shown they can battle with top-tier opponents — most notably taking top-ranked Houston to overtime in a 78–74 thriller, proving they have the talent and discipline to keep games tight even against elite competition. Their length and zone principles tend to disrupt teams that rely heavily on perimeter rhythm, and Tennessee has had stretches this season where their half-court offense stalls. With Syracuse trending upward, defending well at home, and already demonstrating they can go punch-for-punch with national contenders, grabbing the +8.0 spread sets up as a strong and data-supported play.
This is a +EV bet because Syracuse +8 at -112 is priced well better than the confirmed fair value of -119, creating roughly a 3.0% edge. Two sharp sportsbooks are also showing this line much higher, sitting around -131 and -133, which signals strong market support on the Syracuse side and suggests the true probability is greater than what -112 implies. When the sharps are heavily aligned and the fair price projects shorter than what’s available, you’re capturing clear closing-line value — exactly what makes this a positive-EV wager.
Bet 4: McDavid Over 2.5 / Under 2.5 Shots On Goal
Books: PointsBet / FanDuel
Odds: +130 / +102
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take McDavid over 2.5 Shots On Goal on PointsBet at +130 odds for $93.52. If this side hits you win $215.
Let's say you take McDavid under 2.5 Shots On Goal on FanDuel at +102 odds for $106.48 . If this side hits you win $215.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $215
No matter the result you make at least $15
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs
