Happy Monday and happy December! The picks from last Wednesday went 2/3 with Schaefer unfortunately scoring a point to cost us the sweep. Onto today we have MNF Giants vs Patriots. 9 NBA games, 5 NHL games, and 19 CBB games throughout the day. Without wasting anymore time let's jump into the sports betting picks for tonight.
Bet #1: Drake Maye Under 0.5 Interceptions
Book: Hard Rock
Odds: -115 (Can take up to -125)
Drake Maye comes into this game with just 6 interceptions on the season — over 355 pass attempts. That puts his interception rate at roughly 1.7%, meaning he’s thrown a pick only once every ~60 passes, which is a fairly low turnover rate for a starting NFL quarterback this deep into the year. Meanwhile, the Giants’ defense has managed just 5 interceptions total in 2025, averaging only about 0.42 interceptions per game — a bottom-tier mark in the league. Combine those two facts — a quarterback who doesn’t turn the ball over often, and a defense that rarely forces interceptions — and the odds seem stacked in favor of a “clean sheet” from Maye. Add to that Maye’s efficiency: he’s thrown 21 touchdowns to those 6 picks, and carries a 110.7 passer rating this season. With those numbers, betting under 0.5 interceptions comes off as a logical and statistically supported play.
This is a strong +EV play because we’re getting Under 0.5 INTs at -115, while the sharp books are pricing the same prop much shorter at -139 to -140, indicating the market consensus believes the probability of Maye throwing zero interceptions is noticeably higher than what our book is offering. With a fair value of -125, the -115 line gives us a meaningful edge, creating an estimated +3.9% EV on the wager. When you’re betting an outcome the sharpest books value at a significantly worse price, you’re essentially buying a discounted line, and that positive gap between offered odds and true odds is exactly what makes this a profitable long-term play.
Bet #2: Nicolas Batum Under 5.5 Points
Book: Bet365
Odds: +105 (Can take up to -105)
Nicolas Batum profiles as a strong under 5.5 points candidate thanks to both season-long trends and recent form. He’s averaging just 4.3 points per game, marking a clear year-over-year scoring decline, and he’s taking only about 3–4 shots per night, which severely limits his path to six points. His recent form is even more concerning for over backers — across his last two games he’s totaled only 2 points, continuing a stretch where he’s frequently staying well below this line. Batum is being used primarily as a floor-spacer and defender, not a scorer, and his low usage rate reflects that. With reduced volume, declining scoring, and a cold recent stretch, the under 5.5 is strongly supported by the data.
This is also a clear +EV spot because we’re getting Under 5.5 points at +105, while the sharp books are all heavily shaded toward the under, pricing it between -115 and -122, which implies a much higher probability that Batum stays below this number. With a calculated fair value of -105, the market is telling us the true line should actually be favored, not plus money. That pricing gap creates a 4.8% EV edge, meaning we’re taking a line that is mispriced in our favor. When you’re grabbing +105 on a prop that sharper books value as a minus-money play, you’re locking in a mathematically profitable wager long-term.
Bet #3: Josh Morrissey Under 1.5 Shots On Goal
Book: BookMaker
Odds: +111 (Can take up to +104)
Josh Morrissey profiles as a strong under 1.5 shots-on-goal play tonight thanks to both recent trends and season-long usage. He has gone under this line in four straight games, recording just four total shots over that stretch, and his overall shooting volume has dipped as his time on ice and offensive involvement have trended downward in recent outings. Even on the season, he’s averaging only around 1.6 shots per game, which already places him right on the edge of this number before factoring in his recent decline. With reduced opportunity, low shot rates, and a consistent stretch of unders, the data supports backing Morrissey to stay under 1.5 SOG again tonight.
This is a solid +EV spot because we’re getting Under 1.5 SOG at +111, while the sharp books are all pricing the same prop heavily toward the under at -110 to -114, signaling that the true probability of Morrissey staying under is meaningfully higher than the market is offering us. With a calculated fair value of +104, the +111 line gives bettors a clear pricing advantage, creating a 3.5% EV edge. When you can grab plus money on a prop that sharper markets believe should be closer to even or slightly juiced to the under, you’re capitalizing on a mispriced number — exactly what +EV betting is all about.
Bet #4: Stanford -19.5 Point Spread
Book: NoVig
Odds: +130 (Can take up to +119)
Stanford -19.5 makes sense here given the matchup and underlying metrics. Stanford has been strong at home, averaging double-digit scoring margins in their own building and shooting significantly better on their home floor. Portland may be 5–3, but those wins have come against weaker competition, and they’ve struggled when facing high-major opponents, ranking near the bottom nationally in defensive efficiency, rebounding margin, and opponent FG%. The Pilots are also allowing over 75 points per game, a troubling number against a Stanford offense that thrives in transition and has a clear size and athleticism advantage. With a tougher home environment, superior metrics on both ends, and a clear talent gap, Stanford is well positioned to cover the -19.5 spread.
This is considered a +EV bet because the sportsbook is offering Stanford -19.5 at +130, which is significantly better than both the sharp prices (ranging from +112 to +100) and the calculated fair value of +119. Since +130 is a higher payout than what sharp books imply the true odds should be, you’re getting more return than the underlying probability suggests. That difference creates an expected value advantage of +4.9%, meaning that over time, taking bets like this should yield positive long-term profit.
Bet 5: Ayton Over 4.5 / Under 4.5 1st Quarter Points
Books: Bet365 / Fliff
Odds: +220 / -150
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Ayton over 4.5 1st quarter points on Bet365 at +220 odds for $68.49. If this side hits you win $219.
Let's say you take Ayton under 4.5 1st quarter points on Fliff at -150 odds for $131.51. If this side hits you win $219.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $219
No matter the result you make at least $19.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
