Happy Wednesday! Picks yesterday went 2/3 so close to the sweep. I'm out for revenge tonight so there's no way we don't sweep tonight. On tap for tonight we have a pair of NBA games, 4 NHL games, and a monster 38 CBB games throughout the day. Without wasting any more time let's jump into the sports betting picks for tonight!
Bet #1 Mark Williams Over 8.5 Rebounds
Book: DraftKings
Odds: +117 (Can take up to +108)
Mark Williams is a strong candidate to clear 8.5 rebounds tonight, averaging 8.6 boards per game on the season and having already covered this line in 10+ games, showing consistent reliability on the glass. His workload as Charlotte’s primary interior presence keeps him in high-opportunity situations, and the matchup adds even more support — the Suns average roughly 43 rebounds per game, creating a favorable environment for opposing bigs to rack up volume. With steady minutes, a proven hit rate, and a rebounding average that essentially sits on the number, Williams has a clear statistical path to finishing with 9 or more boards.
This Williams Over 8.5 rebounds play shows a 4.5% EV, driven by a clear gap between the market number and what the sharp books are implying. While sharp outlets are pricing this prop in the -105 to -110 range, the model’s fair value of +108 confirms that the true odds should be significantly shorter than what the public market is offering. Getting +117 creates pure value — you're grabbing a number that’s well above both the sharp consensus and the fair price, meaning the payout outpaces the actual probability of the over hitting. That discrepancy between sharp lines and the available price is exactly where the +EV edge comes from.
Bet #2 Morgan Frost Under 1.5 Shots On Goal
Book: BetRivers
Odds: +110 (Can take up to -104)
Morgan Frost profiles well for an Under 1.5 SOG play tonight, as he’s gone under this line in 4 of his last 5 games, consistently showing low shooting volume. His overall offensive production has been limited with just 17 points on the season, reflecting a role that doesn’t generate frequent scoring chances or sustained puck-dominant shifts. Frost also isn’t seeing heavy usage, averaging under 16 minutes of ice time per game, which naturally caps his opportunity to put pucks on net. Combine his recent trends, modest season-long output, and limited TOI, and the under becomes a strong data-backed position given how infrequently he’s asserting himself offensively.
This Frost Under 1.5 SOG play grades out as a 7.2% +EV bet because the available +110 price is well above what the sharp books and the model say it should be. Sharps are sitting in the -120 to -121 range on this under, and the calculated fair value is -104, meaning the true probability of the under hitting is significantly higher than the implied odds you’re paying. Anytime you can take a prop at plus money when both the sharp market and the fair-value model price it as a strong favorite, you’re capturing clear line value — and that gap between +110 and a fair price of -104 is exactly where the EV edge comes from.
Bet #3 Bryant +10.5 Spread
Book: UniBet
Odds: -127 (Can take up to -135)
Bryant +10.5 sets up well because the Bulldogs play at an uptempo pace that naturally creates more possessions and increases variance, which benefits an underdog catching double digits. Their defense has been steady, holding opponents to around 42% shooting, and they match up well on the perimeter with shooters like Tabales and Allen consistently knocking down threes to keep them in games. Offensively, Bryant spaces the floor well and pushes in transition, which helps prevent long scoring droughts — a key factor when backing a sizeable underdog. Iona also isn’t a dominant rebounding team, averaging roughly 33 boards per game, which limits their ability to create second-chance separation. With Bryant’s pace, perimeter scoring, ball movement, and defensive efficiency all supporting competitive stretches, the Bulldogs have multiple pathways to staying within the +10.5 number.
This Bryant +10.5 play rates as a 2.6% +EV bet because the available –127 price is meaningfully better than what the sharp books and the model indicate. Sharp sportsbooks are posting this line between –147 and –165, and the model’s fair value sits at –135, showing that the true probability of Bryant covering is higher than the implied odds you're paying. Anytime you can grab a spread at a cheaper price than both the sharp consensus and the fair-value projection, you’re capturing clear market inefficiency. That gap between –127 and a fair value of –135 is where the +EV edge comes from.
Bet #4 Williams Over 1.5 Blocks / Under 1.5 Blocks
Books: DraftKings / TheScore
Odds: +257 / -165
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Williams Over 1.5 Blocks on DraftKings at +257 odds for $62.06. If this side hits you win $221.
Let's say you take Williams Under 1.5 Blocks on TheScore at -165 odds for $137.94. If this side hits you win $221.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $221
No matter the result you make at least $21.
