Free Sports Betting Bets! Best Odds, EV plays, Arbs, for Monday October 6th.
Happy Monday! We have a pair of NLDS games tonight along with the MNF game Chiefs vs Jaguars. Let's jump directly into the sports betting picks tonight!
Bet 1: Pacheco Over 7.5 Rushing Attempts
Book: PointsBet
Odds: -105 (Can take up to -118)
Pacheco is averaging 8 rushes per game so far in 2025 — just above the 7.5 threshold — meaning this line just requires him to hit nearly his season norm. Given his established role when healthy, the line seems to be banking on a light workload, which may not materialize if the Chiefs lean into the run game which they might given they're a 4 point favorite. Tonight’s opponent the Jaguars have been vulnerable to ground attacks lately: over the past 7 games, opponents are averaging 29.9 rushes per game against this defense, with an average of 5.5 yards per carry allowed. That suggests Pacheco should get more than minimal touches. Also, if the Chiefs find success early, they’ll have incentive to run the ball to manage the clock and protect leads, further boosting his carry count. All those factors make the Over look like a smart play — Pacheco doesn’t need a ton to clear this, and both usage patterns and matchup lean in his favor.
The Over 7.5 rushing attempts for Isiah Pacheco also stands out as a strong +EV play with a 5.7% expected value edge. At -105 odds on PointsBet, you’re getting a clear discount compared to the market’s fair price of -118, showing this line is mispriced. Multiple sharp books have already moved this number toward the Over, with prices between -130 and -145, signaling professional money backing increased rushing volume for Pacheco. When you combine market movement, matchup, and player usage, the Over 7.5 offers real closing line value and positions bettors on the sharp side of the number.
Bet 2: Joey Ortiz Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI's
Book: Bet365
Odds: +165 (Can take up to +155)
Ortiz's batting average has shown improvement over the past 20 games, reaching .255 with 14 hits, 2 RBIs, and 6 runs scored. This uptick in offensive production suggests a favorable trend for his power-hitting capabilities. While his season total of 7 home runs might not be overwhelming, his recent form indicates a readiness to break out. Imanaga is ranked 8th percentile in FBV, 84th in chase%, 44th in whiff% & 34th in K%. MIL is ranked 29th in K% vs LHP in the L14 days. Ortiz's recent form, and a nice matchup against Imanaga shapes up to be a nice bet for today's NLDS game.
The Over 1.5 Runs + Hits + RBIs line for J. Ortiz presents a strong value opportunity at +165 on Bet365. With the market’s fair value estimated around +155, this bet offers a 4.0% expected value edge—enough to warrant serious consideration for value-driven bettors. What strengthens this position further is the pricing across sharper sportsbooks, where the same Over is listed between +125 and +134. This kind of disparity suggests Bet365 is lagging behind the market and offering a mispriced line. When sharper books tighten odds on a prop like this, it typically signals professional money or internal models pushing toward the Over. By locking in the +165, you’re effectively positioning yourself ahead of the market correction and securing closing line value. In a game where thin edges matter, these are exactly the types of bets that add up over time.
Bet 3: Blake Snell Over 7.5 Strikeouts
Book: BetOpenly
Odds: +114 (Can take up to +109)
Blake Snell's Over 7.5 strikeouts is a compelling play tonight, especially considering both his recent form and the matchup. Snell has long been known for his elite swing-and-miss stuff, and he's hit 8+ strikeouts in several recent outings, showing he's rounding into peak form at the right time. He faces a Phillies lineup that, while potent, can be vulnerable to high-strikeout lefties—particularly in the bottom half of the order, where swing rates and whiff percentages are elevated. The Phillies also rank in the bottom third of MLB in strikeout rate vs. left-handed pitching over the last 30 days, adding further value to this angle. Snell is also likely to have a relatively long leash given his experience and the stakes, which boosts the chances he logs six or more innings—enough to hit this number if his strikeout efficiency holds. With his elite K-rate and a favorable context, the Over 7.5 line offers strong upside.
Blake Snell Over 7.5 strikeouts at +114 stands out as a solid +EV play thanks to both market mispricing and a favorable matchup. The fair value for this line is estimated at +109, giving it a 2.2% expected value edge—enough to matter for bettors focused on long-term profitability. What makes this play even more appealing is how sharper sportsbooks are pricing the same prop. Books like Pinnacle, Circa, and DraftKings have this line anywhere from -102 to -111, indicating they view the Over as significantly more likely than the +114 price suggests. That kind of discrepancy is often a sign the market hasn’t fully corrected yet.
Bet 4: Snell Over 17.5 / Under 17.5 Pitcher Earned Outs
Books: ProphetX and BetJack
Odds: +133 and -115
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take the Over 17.5 Pitcher Outs on ProphetX at +133 odds for $89.04 If this side hits you win $207.
Let's say you take the Under 17.5 Pitcher Outs on BetJack at -115 odds for $110.96 If this side hits you win $207.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $207
No matter the result you make at least $7.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
