Free Sports Betting Bets! Best Odds, EV plays, Arbs, for Wednesday October 8th.
Happy Wednesday! We have a sports filled day ahead with some MLB postseason action, WNBA finals, and NHL night 2. Let's not waste anytime, let's jump directly into the sports betting picks for today!
Bet 1: Casey Mize Over 9.5 Pitching Outs
Book: Bet365
Odds: +105 (Can take up to -112)
Casey Mize’s Over 9.5 pitching outs looks appealing given his recent form and workload. Mize had previously gone deep into games, averaging over 15 outs per outing across his last five starts. He’s been efficient early, keeping pitch counts manageable and showing improved command with his splitter, allowing him to face lineups multiple times through. Today’s matchup against the Mariners also works in his favor — he’s facing a team that ranks in the bottom half of MLB in first-time-through-the-order OPS, which should help him clear the 10-out mark if he avoids early trouble. Given his consistency and recent trends, Mize should comfortably surpass 9.5 outs if he settles in early. In his one start in the playoffs so far he has also cleared this line.
This play on Casey Mize Over 9.5 pitching outs is a strong +EV bet due to the value gap between the offered line and market consensus. While Bet365 lists the Over at +105, sharper books have it heavily juiced toward the Over (around -136), suggesting a fair value closer to -112. That pricing edge alone creates an estimated 8.3% expected value. From a performance standpoint, Mize has consistently worked past 9 outs in recent outings, averaging over 15 outs per start when healthy. Combine the performance with the great odds we're getting this makes for a great +EV bet.
Bet 2: Chelsea Gray Over 3.5 Rebounds
Book: MGM
Odds: +100 (Can take up to -106)
Chelsea Gray clearing the Over 3.5 rebounds line is well justified by both her historical consistency and her recent Finals performances. In Game 1 of the Finals she grabbed 7 boards, and in Game 2 she pulled down 8—already exceeding the 3.5 mark in both contests. Over the 2025 season she’s averaging 3.9 rebounds per game. As a tenacious guard who crashes the glass when her teammates are focused on scoring and rim work, Gray’s role and instincts put her in position to collect boards even against length. Combine her rebound floor with an opponent that often concedes second-chance opportunities through loose balls and missed boxouts, and the over 3.5 is a smart lean.
This Over 3.5 rebounds line for Chelsea Gray offers solid positive expected value based on both market pricing and performance trends. While BetMGM lists the Over at +100, sharper books are heavily leaning toward the Over, pricing it around -125 to -136, implying a fair value closer to -106. That discrepancy creates a 2.9% edge for bettors. With her current form, matchup advantage, and a favorable price compared to market consensus, this line provides both statistical and value-based backing for the Over.
Bet 3: Mikael Backlund Under 1.5 Shots On Goal
Book: VirginBet
Odds: +140 (Can take up to +134)
In his last 10 games to end last season Backlund was averaging 1.4 SOG. Additionally, Backlund’s shot volume has been hit by reduced ice time and a less prominent shooting role, especially when facing tight defensive systems which he is tonight as he faces the Edmonton Oilers. When facing a strong defensive opponent who limits time and space—and tends to shut down second-liners and depth forwards—Backlund is far more likely to stay under 1.5 shots. All of that suggests this Under line has good traction: the recent outputs, role adjustment, and matchup all support expecting him to take one or zero shots on goal tonight.
This Under 1.5 SOG on Mikael Backlund stacks up as a value play for two reasons: the market price and the player profile. The ticket is being offered around +140 while sharper books are pricing the market closer to roughly +108–+120, implying a fair price near +134 — that gap translates into the ~2.6% edge shown on the board.
Bet 4: Turang Over / Under 0.5 Walks
Books: ProphetX / Bet365
Odds: +188/ -160
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take the Over 0.5 Walks on ProphetX at +188 odds for $72.14 If this side hits you win $207.
Let's say you take the Over 0.5 Walks on Bet 365 at -160 odds for $127.86 If this side hits you win $207.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $207
No matter the result you make at least $7
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
