Free Sports Betting Bets! Best Odds, EV plays, Arbs, for Tuesday October 7th.
Happy Tuesday and NHL opening night! Along with NHL we also have a pair of ALDS MLB playoff games. Let's jump directly into the sports betting picks for today.
Bet 1: Will Cuylle Over 0.5 Points
Book: Bet365
Odds: +128 (Can take up to +122)
Will Cuylle enters tonight coming off a breakout 2024-25 season in which he posted 45 points (20 goals, 25 assists) while averaging over 15:00 of ice time per game, nearly a three-minute jump over previous seasons. This should only increase this year as Kreider was shipped to the Ducks. His utilization is only trending upward: insiders expect he’ll earn a top-six role this year alongside J.T. Miller and Mika Zibanejad, affording him more opportunity to contribute offensively. In prop markets, Cuylle is already getting modest value on Over 0.5 points, with his recent 10-game span showing 2 goals and 5 assists (7 points) as he’s warmed up into form. Tonight’s opponent the Penguins further favors the Over: their defense has struggled to contain physical, high‐activity forwards, and Cuylle’s strengths — net drives, second efforts, and board battles — should press the pace. Coupled with his growing role on both power play and penalty kill units, the added volume of shifts and situational deployment gives him multiple touchpoints to record a point. In short, with upward usage, momentum, and a favorable matchup, the Over on his points line has value tonight.
This bet on Will Cuylle to record over 0.5 points represents a +EV (positive expected value) opportunity as well based purely on the betting numbers. The fair value of the line, derived from sharp sportsbooks, is +122, while Bet365 is offering +128, creating a 2.6% edge. In betting terms, this means you’re getting better odds than what the market consensus believes the true probability should be—essentially, you’re buying value. When multiple sharp books like Pinnacle and FanDuel are pricing the same prop lower (-103 to +115), it signals that Bet365’s line is slightly mispriced in your favor. Over time, consistently betting on lines with positive expected value like this one leads to a long-term profit advantage.
Bet 2: Ernie Clement Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI's
Book: DraftKings:
Odds: +117 (Can take up to +107)
Ernie Clement enters the postseason with momentum, having slashed roughly .303/.316/.398 in 2025 and posted a scorching .324 average over a recent stretch with 33 hits, 10 RBIs, and 18 runs in just 27 games. In the first two postseason games against the Yankees Clement has racked up 9 Hits + Runs + RBI's. Or an average of 4.5 per game. So far in his career vs Rodon Ernie Clement has went 4/7 which is a .571 batting average. He’s shown a knack for rising in big moments, verdant matchups in the playoffs—often against pitchers overextended or caught mid-fade—play right into Clement’s strength of making solid contact and contributing across multiple stat lines.
This OVER 1.5 Runs + Hits + RBIs play on Ernie Clement is appealing purely from a betting value perspective. The line at +117 on DraftKings presents a clear 4.7% edge compared to the calculated fair value of +107, meaning bettors are getting a better price than what sharp markets deem accurate. When multiple respected books have this prop closer to even money (-110 to +100), it signals a market inefficiency that smart bettors look to exploit.
Bet 3: Jack Flaherty Under 14.5 Pitching Outs
Book: Hard Rock
Odds: -110 (Can take up to -114)
Sharp books have this line priced shorter (ranging from -130 to -148), suggesting the market leans toward the under being the sharper side. From a betting standpoint, getting access to the better number before it fully adjusts provides long-term value. Even if the edge isn’t huge, it reflects that Flaherty’s likely to face efficiency issues or an early hook, aligning with sharper sentiment across sportsbooks. Simply put, this is a classic case of grabbing a mispriced line—where the odds at Hard Rock lag behind the true implied probability the under will hit.
Bet 4: Robles Over / Under 0.5 Walks
Books: BetSafe / Bet365
Odds: +495 / -370
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take the Over 0.5 Walks on BetSafe at +495 odds for $35.19 If this side hits you win $209.
Let's say you take the Under 0.5 Walks on Bet365 at -370 odds for $164.81 If this side hits you win $209.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $209
No matter the result you make at least $9
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
