Free Sports Betting Bets! Best Odds, EV plays, Arbs, for Thursday October 9th.
Happy Thursday! We have a sports filled day as we have NHL, MLB, NFL, and College football all in action tonight! Let's not waste anymore time and jump directly into the sports betting picks for today.
Bet 1: John Morrissey Under 2.5 Shots On Goal
Book: Bet365
Odds: -130 (Can take up -161)
Morrissey isn’t typically a volume shooter — he averaged closer to 1.6 shots per game last season and had gone under this line in seven of his last nine outings dating back to last season. His role leans more toward playmaking and defensive reliability than creating direct offensive pressure, which limits his shooting volume. On top of that, he’s facing a team in the Stars that ranks among the league’s best at suppressing shots from opposing defensemen, allowing few clean looks from the blue line. Morrissey also sees heavy minutes on the power play where he often acts as a distributor rather than a shooter, further reducing his shot attempts. Given his recent trends, team role, and the tough defensive matchup, the Under 2.5 SOG offers solid value in this spot.
This +EV play on Josh Morrissey Under 2.5 Shots on Goal (-130 at bet365) stands out as a sharp market discrepancy. Books like FanDuel, Pinnacle, and DraftKings all price the same prop between -176 and -212, implying the true odds should be closer to -161 — meaning bet365 is hanging a softer line. With a 9.1% expected value, you’re getting a strong edge purely from the market — not public sentiment. Anytime a line deviates this much from sharp consensus, it signals actionable value, especially early in the season when books are still adjusting player shot volume projections
Bet 2: Alec Bohm Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI's
Book: Hard Rock
Odds: -105 (Can take up to -117)
Bohm has cooled off at the plate lately, posting just a .220 batting average over his last 10 games with limited hard contact and only a handful of extra-base hits. He’s gone under this line in six of his last eight games, struggling to string together multi-hit or multi-RBI performances. Tonight, he faces a tough right-handed starter In Glasnow who’s been excellent at limiting righty bats, holding them to a sub-.230 average and minimal run production. That’s a difficult matchup for Bohm, who’s historically been less productive versus right-handers compared to lefties. Additionally, he hits in a lineup spot that doesn’t always guarantee high run or RBI opportunities, especially if the top of the order struggles. Given his recent slump, reduced power output, and an unfavorable pitching matchup, it’s reasonable to expect a quieter night offensively — making the Under 1.5 H+R+RBI a strong value play.
This Alec Bohm Under 1.5 R+H+RBI (-105 on Hard Rock) play offers clear value, with sharp books like NoVig, BetOnline, and DraftKings all pricing the same prop between -137 and -145, implying a fair value of -117. That creates a 5.3% expected edge, meaning you’re betting into a softer line before the market adjusts. Facing the Dodgers’ elite pitching staff, Bohm’s opportunities for multiple contributions are limited, making this a solid position supported by both matchup context and sharp market alignment. It’s the kind of small edge that adds up long-term in disciplined +EV betting.
Bet 3: Cam Skattebo Over 2.5 Receptions
Book: DraftKings
Odds +117 (Can take up to +112)
He’s averaging 3.6 catches per game this season and has gone over this mark in four of his last five outings, showing consistent involvement as a checkdown option. Skattebo has become a reliable safety valve in short-yardage and third-down situations, especially when his quarterback Jaxson Dart faces pressure which he does often with that Giants O-line. His target share has steadily increased, and the matchup favors continued volume — the opposing defense the Eagles ranks among the bottom tier in receptions allowed to running backs, often giving up easy completions underneath to avoid the deep balls. With his combination of sure hands, consistent targets, and a favorable defensive matchup, Skattebo has a strong path to finishing with three or more catches, making the Over 2.5 receptions a high-percentage play.
This Cameron Skattebo Over 2.5 Receptions (+117 on DraftKings) stands out as a small but meaningful +EV edge of 2.4%, driven by market inefficiency. Sharp books like FanDuel, BetMGM, and Pinnacle are all pricing this line closer to even money (-102 to -113), which implies a fair value of +112. Any time you’re getting plus money on a line the market prices tighter, it’s worth attention. Even with modest expected value, these spots compound long-term for disciplined bettors — especially when you’re grabbing the best number before sharp movement closes the gap.
Bet 4: Jacksonville State Under 30.5 Team Points
Book: Bet365
Odds: +140 (Can take up to +113)
Jacksonville State has been modest in scoring lately; they average 29.6 points per game this season. Their offense leans heavily on the run (over 65 % rush play rate, ranking very high nationally), with a low volume of passing attempts. In many games, they struggle to generate explosive passing plays or large scoring bursts. Facing a defense that can tighten up in the red zone or force punts (Sam Houston is #44 in the country in Redzone defense.) Combine that with the fact the over/unders in their games are often modest and the offenses in general haven’t been lighting up the scoreboard — betting Jacksonville State’s team total under 30.5 gives you a solid cushion against a mid-tier performance being enough to bust the over.
This Jacksonville State Under 30.5 Team Points (+140 on bet365) jumps off the board as a strong 12.8% +EV opportunity, signaling clear mispricing compared to sharper books. Market consensus has this line around +100 to +103, with a fair value closer to +113, meaning bet365 is offering a number that’s well above true odds. The edge comes from the overinflated price on the under, creating a profitable long-term position when consistently taken in similar spots. With Sam Houston’s defense capable of slowing the pace and limiting explosive plays, this wager offers both market and matchup justification for the value.
Bet 4: Los Angeles Over / Under 9.5 Hits
Books: Bet365/ Hard Rock
Odds: +190 / -115
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take the Over 8.5 Hits on Bet365 at +190 odds for $78.40 If this side hits you win $227.
Let's say you take the Under 8.5 Hits on Hard Rock at -115 odds for $121.60 If this side hits you win $227.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $227
No matter the result you make at least $27
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
