Happy Friday! We have a loaded slate today that contains two MLB post season baseball games, 4 College Football games, 4 NHL games, and some NBA preseason to cap off the night. Let's jump right into the sports betting picks for today!
Bet 1: Teoscar Hernandez Over 0.5 RBI's
Book: FanDuel
Odds: +170 (Can take up to +157)
Teoscar Hernández’s over 0.5 RBI line looks appealing given his red-hot playoff form. He’s been one of the Dodgers’ most productive bats this postseason, racking up nine RBIs through his first few games and consistently delivering in key spots. Hernández has already covered this line against Milwaukee, crushing a solo homer in their last matchup, and he’s been seeing the ball extremely well with multiple extra-base hits in recent contests. With his spot in the middle of a potent Dodgers lineup and plenty of runners likely on base ahead of him, Hernández is in a strong position to drive in at least one run again tonight.
This Teoscar Hernández Over 0.5 RBI at +170 is a clear +EV play because the listed odds are longer than the market consensus, giving you a fair value around +157. That means there’s roughly a 5% positive expected value edge, as sharp books like SportsTrade, NoVig, and BetMGM are all pricing this prop shorter. Hernández’s hot playoff streak—already driving in nine runs and consistently hitting in the middle of a potent Dodgers lineup—adds strong statistical support to the edge. With runners frequently on base ahead of him and favorable matchup history against Milwaukee pitching, this line offers both solid analytical value and real-world upside.
Bet 2: Nebraska / Minnesota Under 43.5 Total Points
Book: ESPNBet
Odds: +170 (Can take up to +155)
Both teams are showing serious offensive limitations, especially on the ground. Minnesota averages just ~112 rushing yards/game (115th nationally) and puts up only 27.3 PPG. Nebraska may be better through the air, but their rushing game ranks in the bottom third (~92nd), and despite big yardage numbers overall their scoring efficiency dips in tight games. Meanwhile, Minnesota’s offense is underwhelming in big‐moments and struggles converting third downs, which tends to stall drives and limit scoring. Given both defenses also play well, especially Nebraska’s elite pass defense, a low‐scoring, grind‐it‐out affair is likely, making 43.5 a realistic ceiling.
This Under 43.5 total points play in the Nebraska vs. Minnesota game at +170 carries strong +EV value because the line is significantly higher than the market consensus, with a fair value around +155—creating a 5.8% edge. Sharp sportsbooks like FanDuel, SportsTrade, and DraftKings all price the same prop much shorter, signaling that ESPNBet is offering inflated odds. On the field, both teams have struggled offensively, ranking near the bottom nationally in yards per play and scoring efficiency, which aligns perfectly with a lower-scoring outcome. With market and matchup data both supporting the under, this bet offers solid long-term positive expected value.
Bet 3: Alex Ovechkin Over 3.5 Shots On Goal
Book: BetOpenly
Odds: +118 (Can take up to +113)
Last season he fired 237 shots on goal in 65 games, or ~3.6 per game on average. This year, he’s already recorded 14 shots over 4 games (3.5 per game), meeting the line’s threshold by volume. Meanwhile, his opponent, Minnesota, has allowed about 3.75 goals against per game over their first 4 games—indicating weak defensive resistance and more shooting opportunities for opponents. All things considered, Ovechkin’s shot rate and matchup suggest over 3.5 shots on goal has strong justification.
This Ovechkin Over 3.5 Shots on Goal at +118 presents a +EV edge because it’s priced better than the sharp market average, which sits around +113, yielding a 2.5% expected value advantage. Books like Pinnacle and BetOnline have this prop near even money, signaling that the +118 line offers extra value. The data also supports the play—Ovechkin has 14 shots through 4 games this season and averaged over 3.6 shots per game last year, maintaining consistent volume. Facing a Minnesota team that’s allowed 21 goals in four games, Ovechkin should have plenty of offensive zone time, making this line both mathematically and contextually profitable.
Bet 4: Timberwolves / 76ers Over 223.5 Points
Book: Bet365
Odds: +110 (Can take up to +102)
This is a +EV bet because Bet365 is offering Over 223.5 at +110, while sharp books like Pinnacle and FanDuel have the same market priced closer to -102 to -110, suggesting the true odds should be around +102. That pricing gap creates a 4.1% expected value edge, meaning the payout from Bet365 is higher than what the market consensus implies the probability should be. Essentially, you're getting better-than-fair odds on a total that sharper sportsbooks expect to go over more often than Bet365’s line reflects.
Bet 5: Darrius Taylor Over / Under 29.5/30.5 Receiving Yards
Books: Bet365 / FanDuel
Odds: +170 / -114
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Darrius Taylor Over 29.5 Receiving Yards on Bet365 at +170 odds for $82.02 If this side hits you win $221.
Let's say you take Darrius Taylor Under 30.5 Receiving Yards on FanDuel at -114 odds for $117;.98 If this side hits you win $221.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $221
No matter the result you make at least $21.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
