Happy Thursday! We have a stacked slate today that contains some MLB post season baseball, Thursday night football, 11 NHL games, and some NBA summer league to cap off the night. Let's get right into the sports betting picks for today.
Bet 1: Tommy Edman Over 1.5 Total Bases
Book: Unibet
Odds: +165 (Can take up to +154)
Here’s why the over 1.5 total bases for Tommy Edman looks like a strong play today. He’s averaging around 1.6 total bases per game recently and recorded 3 total bases in his last outing, comfortably clearing this line. Over his past 10 games, Edman has tallied 15 total bases, showing consistent contact and gap power. He’s also been hitting well against right-handed pitching lately, which bodes well given today’s matchup. With his combination of speed and extra-base potential, Edman’s recent form and plate discipline make this over a solid value spot.
This Tommy Edman Over 1.5 Total Bases play is a +EV (positive expected value) bet because the odds offered by Unibet (+165) are higher than the fair market value of +154, giving a built-in 4.3% edge. In other words, the price you’re getting implies a lower probability of success than what the sharp consensus suggests, meaning the true odds favor the bettor over the long run. Several sharp books — including Pinnacle, SportsTrade, and NoVig — have this line priced between +130 and +134, confirming that Unibet’s line is mispriced. When you’re consistently betting into these inefficiencies, even small percentage edges like 4.3% compound into long-term profit.
Bet 2: Joe Flacco Over 23.5 Pass Completions
Book: BetWay
Odds: +115 (Can take up to +105)
Taking the over 23.5 pass completions on Joe Flacco is a smart play considering his role and matchup. In his Bengals debut, Flacco completed 29 passes, showcasing strong rhythm and timing with his receivers despite limited prep time. Against a stout Steelers rush defense that consistently shuts down opposing running backs, Cincinnati will likely rely on a more aerial game plan to sustain drives. Flacco’s experience reading pressure and getting the ball out quickly suits this matchup perfectly, and with the Bengals’ talented receiving corps creating separation underneath, another 25–30 completion performance is well within reach.
This bet is +EV because Betway is offering Over 23.5 completions for Joe Flacco at +115, which is significantly higher than the market consensus. Other sharp sportsbooks have the same line priced closer to +100 to -116, implying fair odds around +105. That creates a 5.1% edge, meaning the payout from Betway exceeds the true probability implied by sharper markets. Essentially, the market suggests Flacco has a better chance of hitting this over than Betway’s odds reflect, so taking +115 provides long-term value based on the discrepancy in pricing.
Bet 3: Devon Toews Over 0.5 Points
Book: Bet365
Odds: +150 (Can take up to +136)
Taking the over 0.5 points on Dylan Toews is a solid look given his proven offensive consistency and favorable matchup. Last season, Toews tallied 28 points in 44 games, averaging over 0.6 points per game — comfortably above this line. He’s been active in both even-strength and power-play situations, giving him multiple scoring avenues. Facing an opponent that has already surrendered 24 points in just three games this season, Toews is well-positioned to capitalize on defensive lapses and continue his steady point production.
Bet365 is offering D. Toews Over 0.5 points at +150, while sharp books are pricing the same outcome in the +109 to +120 range and our aggregated fair estimate sits near +136. That price gap means Bet365 is paying out more than the probability suggested by the sharper market — the difference translates to roughly a 6.1% edge. In plain terms: you're being compensated at a rate higher than the true odds implied by other respected books, so repeatedly taking this price should yield a positive return over the long run.
Bet 4: Detroit Pistons -8 Spread
Book: Prime
Odds: +101 (Can take up to -105)
Backing Detroit –8 tonight makes sense given the trends and mismatch advantages. The Pistons already showed life in the preseason, earning a 128–112 win over Memphis and keeping it close vs Milwaukee and Cleveland, showing depth even when resting key pieces. Meanwhile, Washington’s defense has looked shaky — in their preseason loss they allowed opponents to pressure them into turnovers and tough shots. Given Detroit’s upward momentum, roster balance, and the Wizards’ defensive vulnerabilities, –8 looks like a sharp, assertive play.
Detroit is being offered at -8 with +101 juice, while sharp books are pricing the same spread around -110 to -125 and our aggregated fair number is about -105. In plain terms, the market implies Detroit should cover more often than +101 suggests — the consensus probability translates to a slightly better than even chance to cover, so taking the +101 price is buying that cover at a discount relative to fair value. That gap between what sharp books signal and what this shop is paying equals roughly a 2.9% expected value — small but positive, meaning repeated bets at this price should net a profit over time.
Bet 5: Chicago Over / Under 114.5 Team Points
Books: DraftKings / Bet365
Odds: -120/ +165
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Chicago Over 114.5 Team Points on DraftKings at -120 odds for $118.22 If this side hits you win $216.
Let's say you take Chicago Under 114.5 Team Points on Bet365 at +165 odds for $81.78 If this side hits you win $216.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $216
No matter the result you make at least $16.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
