Happy Friday! We have game 1 of the World Series starting tonight! Along with that we also have a full NBA slate, some NHL action and some CFB to end off the night. Let's get right into the sports betting picks as we close the week off.
Bet 1: Trey Yesavage Under 4.5 Hits Allowed
Book: Hard Rock
Odds: -130 (Can take up to -151)
Trey Yesavage has quietly had an impressive season and torrid ascent — though he only has three big-league starts, he’s arriving with elite metrics (3.21 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, an xBA in the low .180s) and at the minor-league levels he struck out 160 over 98 innings while surrendering just 54 hits His pitch mix generates weak contact (low barrel rates, lots of ground balls) which helps suppress opposing hit totals, even against a deep Dodgers lineup. In a high-leverage World Series environment, where bullpen leverage, pressure, and tighter attack tend to lower offensive output, the under is appealing — especially since sportsbooks already peg his hits line at 4.5 (often even with juice on the Over). Given the stakes, his strong peripherals, and a proven contact-weakening approach, betting Yesavage to allow fewer than 4.5 hits against L.A. is defensible.
This is a +EV (positive expected value) bet because the market consensus and sharp books have the Under 4.5 hits for Trey Yesavage priced much shorter (around -160 to -190), while it’s available at -130 on Hard Rock, implying significant line value. The fair value, shown at -151, suggests roughly a 6.5% edge compared to true odds. Yesavage’s elite form—limiting hitters to a sub-.190 batting average and showing strong command all postseason—adds confidence that he can stay under this total, especially in a World Series environment where starters often have shorter leashes and managers pull pitchers quickly at the first sign of trouble. The line discrepancy plus matchup context creates a strong +EV opportunity.
Bet 2: Tari Eason Over 4.5 Rebounds
Book: Bet365
Odds: +100 (Can take up to -129)
Eason averaged 6.4 rebounds per game last season and has consistently been one of Houston’s most active players on the glass. In their first game of this season, he grabbed 6 rebounds, immediately clearing this line despite playing limited minutes — a good sign that his rebounding instincts and energy are still elite. When given 25+ minutes, he’s cleared 4.5 boards in the vast majority of his games, and his mix of length, athleticism, and hustle makes him a constant presence around the rim on both ends. Against a fast-paced pistons team that generates plenty of missed shots, Eason’s activity and rebounding upside make the Over 4.5 a strong value play early in the season.
This is also a clear +EV bet because the Over 4.5 rebounds for Tari Eason is priced at +100 on Bet365, while sharp books have the same line heavily juiced toward the Over (ranging from -145 to -155) and the fair value sits around -129. That creates an implied 12.8% expected value edge, meaning the true odds suggest this play should win more often than the price implies. Eason already cleared this number in the Rockets’ season opener with 6 rebounds, and given his historical averages around 6+ boards per game, the model and market agree that even money is a mispriced line. When a player’s performance data and sharp market movement align like this, it’s a textbook +EV opportunity worth targeting.
Bet 3: Kent Johnson Over 0.5 Points
Book: FanDuel
Odds: +110 (Can take up to +105)
Here’s a strong case for taking Kent Johnson Over 0.5 points: through just a few games this season, he’s already tallied 3 points, showing early consistency and offensive involvement. Last year, Johnson posted 16 points in 42 games despite limited ice time, but he’s now seeing an expanded role in the Blue Jackets’ top six and increased power-play usage. His skill set as a creative playmaker and scorer makes him a threat to get on the scoresheet any night, and with his confidence clearly building early in the season, betting on him to record at least one point offers solid value given both recent form and opportunity
This Kent Johnson Over 0.5 points prop is a +EV bet because it’s listed at +110 on FanDuel, while sharp books have the same line priced closer to +100 or -105, and the fair value sits around +105 — creating roughly a 2.2% edge. That means the odds imply a lower probability of Johnson recording a point than what the sharp market data and models suggest is realistic. Considering Johnson has already produced 3 points early in the season and plays meaningful minutes in the Blue Jackets’ top six and power-play unit, the Over is mispriced at plus money. Anytime you can grab a prop that sharp books shade toward the other side — especially for an offensively skilled forward in form — it’s a +EV betting opportunity.
Bet 4: Virginia Tech Over 6.5 1st Quarter Points
Book: Caesars
Odds: -115 (Can take up to -119)
Despite their less-than-stellar start to the season, they’ve shown signs of early offensive aggressiveness — for example putting up 10 first-quarter points vs. NC State Wolfpack this year. Meanwhile, many of their opponents (including weak defenses) allow more than average first-quarter scoring, and VT’s tempo on offense allows games to open up quickly. According to team rankings data, VT averages about 3.7 points in the first quarter, but opponents likewise trend above that mark. With a favorable matchup and an expectation of faster-paced drives and early scoring chances, this line offers value assuming they can jumpstart the scoring early.
This Virginia Tech Over 6.5 first-quarter points is a +EV bet because it’s priced at -115, while sharp books have the same line listed between -125 and -145, with a fair value of -119, creating about a 1.5% expected edge. That small but positive EV indicates the market consensus expects the Hokies to score early more often than the posted odds imply. Virginia Tech has shown the ability to start fast, averaging over 7 first-quarter points in recent matchups against comparable defenses, and they face a Cal defense that’s allowed early scoring in multiple games this season. With sharper markets leaning heavier toward the Over and matchup data supporting quick offensive production, this line offers a slight but legitimate value advantage.
Bet 5: Giannis Over / Under 0.5 3 Pointers Made
Books: BetMGM / Bet365
Odds: +195 / -140
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Giannis Over 0.5 3 Pointers Made on BetMGM at +195 odds for $73.51 If this side hits you win $216.
Let's say you take Giannis Under 0.5 3 Pointers Made on Bet365 at -140 odds for $126.49 If this side hits you win $216.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $216
No matter the result you make at least $16.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
