Happy Thursday! We have a full 12 game NHL slate, a pair of NBA games, a CFB game, and of course Thursday Night Football! Without wasting anymore time let's jump directly into the sports betting picks today.
Bet 1: Mackie Samoskevich Over 2.5 Shots On Goal
Book: BetMGM
Odds: +135 (Can take up to +129)
Mackie Samoskevich has cleared this Over 2.5 Shots on Goal line in four games already this season, showing a growing confidence to fire the puck whenever he’s on the ice. He’s logging solid top-nine minutes and earning power-play time, giving him consistent shooting opportunities. After averaging close to four shots per game last season, his volume has clearly trended upward with increased usage and offensive trust from the coaching staff. Facing a defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in shots allowed, Samoskevich is in a strong position to continue his aggressive shot pace and eclipse the 2.5 mark again tonight.
This is a +EV bet because you’re getting +135 odds on Samoskevich to record over 2.5 shots on goal, while sharp books are pricing that same prop between +109 and +115, with a calculated fair value of +129. That means the current line is mispriced, giving you roughly 2.5% expected value. Essentially, you’re betting at better odds than the market consensus—taking advantage of softer pricing compared to sharp books. When the true probability implied by the sharper lines is higher than what your book offers, that edge compounds over time and makes this a profitable play in the long run.
Bet 2: Nembhard Over 10.5 RB +AST
Book: Hard Rock
Odds: +100 (Can take up to -108)
With both Tyrese Haliburton and T.J. McConnell out, Andrew Nembhard steps into a massive playmaking and rebounding role for the Pacers, handling nearly all of the primary ball-handling duties. In games without Haliburton last season, Nembhard averaged over 11 combined rebounds and assists, thriving as the offense flowed through him. His minutes typically jump into the mid-30s range in these situations, leading to a steady boost in both potential assists and rebounding chances from longer possessions. Given the expanded workload and his proven production when the backcourt is short-handed, the Over 10.5 Rebounds + Assists looks like a strong play.
This is a +EV bet because Hard Rock is offering +100 on Nembhard to go over 10.5 rebounds and assists, while sharp sportsbooks have that same line between -120 and -125, implying a fair value around -108. That means the market consensus suggests this prop should be priced as a slight favorite, yet you’re getting it at even money—creating about a 4% edge. Anytime you can grab a plus-money line that sharper books have heavily juiced to the over, it signals market inefficiency you can exploit for long-term profit.
Bet 3: Georgia State +8.5
Book: Hard Rock
Odds: -130 (Can take up to -136)
Both Georgia State and South Alabama Jaguars enter with troubling 1-6 records (0-3 in the Sun Belt for both) heading into Week 9, signaling brittle form on both sides. South Alabama may be favored by around 6.5 points according to recent spreads, but their defense has been inconsistent — analysts highlight that if South Alabama has any defensive strength, it’s a “notable ‘if’”, especially in the passing game. Meanwhile, Georgia State can lean on home-field at Atlanta’s Center Parc Stadium, which helps keep the margin tighter. Given South Alabama’s edge is modest and their defensive reliability shaky, the eight-and-a-half-point cushion offers value for Georgia State to cover.
This wager holds positive expected value because Hard Rock is offering Georgia State +8.5 at -130, while sharp books have the same number juiced significantly higher, between -151 and -165, with a fair value around -136. That pricing gap indicates the market believes Georgia State covering this spread is more likely than the offered odds suggest. Essentially, you’re locking in a discounted line compared to sharper markets that have already adjusted, giving you a 2.1% edge. Finding these discrepancies before the broader market corrects them is what creates consistent betting value over time.
Bet 4: TJ Hockenson Over 3.5 Receptions
Book: PointsBet
Odds: -115 (Can take up to -139)
T.J. Hockenson has registered 4, 5 and 6 receptions in his last three games (4 vs PIT, 6 vs CLE, 6 vs PHI) which means he’s cleared the 3.5-catch mark in each of those outings. Over his career he averages about 4.63 receptions per game. His recent targets have increased — he had 9 targets most recently vs PHI. With his role as the top tight end in a pass-heavy offense, the sustained volume and uptick in usage make the Over 3.5 receptions a sound bet. With Minnesota entering this matchup as a slight underdog, game script should favor more passing volume as they look to keep pace offensively.
Bet 5: Wentz Over / Under 4.5 Rush Attempts
Books: ESPNBet / WynnBet
Odds: +350 / -244
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Wentz Over 4.5 Rush Attempts on ESPNBet at +350 odds for $47.71 If this side hits you win $214.
Let's say you take Wentz Under 4.5 Rush Attempts on WynnBet at -244 odds for $47.71 If this side hits you win $214.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $214
No matter the result you make at least $14.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
