Happy Tuesday and happy NBA season opener! We have a pair of NBA season opener games, a full NHL slate and some CFB games to end the night. Let's jump right into the sports betting picks for tonight! 
Bet 1: Chet Holmgren Over 1.5 Assists
Book: Bet365
Odds: +115 (Cant take up to -101)
Taking the over 1.5 assists on Chet Holmgren makes a lot of sense here. He averaged 2.0 assists per game last season, proving he can consistently facilitate within Oklahoma City’s offense. Holmgren’s vision and ability to find open shooters out of the post or in transition make him a sneaky playmaker. He faces a Houston Rockets defense that ranked near the bottom of the league last season in opponent assists, struggling with defensive rotations and help-side coverage. With this being the season opener, Holmgren should see a full minutes workload alongside OKC’s starters, giving him plenty of chances to create offense and surpass this modest assist line.
This is also a +EV bet because Bet365 is offering Holmgren’s over 1.5 assists at +115, while sharp books have this line priced closer to -121 to -124, implying fair value around -101. That pricing gap creates an 8% expected edge — meaning the market consensus suggests this line should be juiced toward the over. Holmgren’s consistent playmaking (2.0 assists per game last year) and full workload in the opener against a weak Houston defense make the over not just statistically reasonable, but a profitable value play compared to sharper market odds.
Bet 2: Draymond Green Over 5.5 Assists
Book: FanDuel
Odds: +138 (Can take up to +122)
Taking the over 5.5 assists on Draymond Green makes sense here. He averaged 5.6 assists per game last season and remains a vital playmaker in Golden State’s offense. With LeBron James out, Draymond should face less defensive pressure and more space to facilitate, especially through his pick-and-roll connections with Stephen Curry and the Warriors’ younger scorers. His consistent court vision and ability to generate offense for teammates make the over 5.5 a strong play against a weakened Lakers defense
This is a +EV bet because FanDuel is offering Draymond Green’s over 5.5 assists at +138, while sharp books have this line priced around +110 with a fair value of +122, creating roughly a 7% expected edge. The market discrepancy suggests that FanDuel is hanging an inflated number compared to sharper consensus odds. Green averaged 5.6 assists last season and remains the primary facilitator in Golden State’s offense. With LeBron James sidelined, the Lakers’ defensive rotations could weaken, increasing Green’s chances to rack up assists and making this plus-money line a strong value position.
Bet 3: Kraken / Capitals Over 6.5 Total Points
Book: Hard Rock
Odds: +130 (Can take up to +125)
Taking the over 6.5 total points in the Kraken vs. Capitals game looks like a strong play given both teams’ early defensive struggles. The Kraken have already allowed 23 points this season, while the Capitals have given up 20, showing both sides are leaking goals at a high rate. Seattle’s offense has also started to find rhythm, averaging over 3 goals per game in their last few outings, and Washington still boasts proven scorers capable of capitalizing on a shaky Kraken defense. With both teams ranking near the bottom of the league in goals allowed, this matchup sets up well for a high-scoring affair that clears the 6.5 total.
This is a +EV bet because Hard Rock is offering the over 6.5 total points at +130, while sharper books are sitting around +110 with a fair value of +125, giving this play a 2.4% expected edge. The line discrepancy shows the market is slightly undervaluing the over. Both the Kraken and Capitals have been involved in high-scoring games early in the season, with Seattle allowing 23 points and Washington giving up 20. With two struggling defenses and multiple offensive threats on both sides, the data supports value on the over at this inflated price.
Bet 4: Louisiana Tech Under 26.5 Team Points
Book: PlayNow
Odds: +110 (Can take up to +106)
Betting on Louisiana Tech to score under 26.5 points is a compelling option based on recent performance and matchup dynamics. In their first three games of the 2025 season, the Bulldogs have failed to surpass 26 points in any of them, indicating a consistent struggle to reach this threshold. Their offense has averaged 24.5 points per game, with a total of 147 points scored across six games, highlighting their challenges in generating high-scoring outputs on the defensive side, Western Kentucky has been formidable, holding opponents to an average of 17.17 points per game, and has not allowed more than 27 points in any game this season. This trend suggests that Louisiana Tech's offense may find it difficult to breach the 26.5-point mark against a defense that has consistently kept scores low.
This bet is considered +EV (positive expected value) because the offered odds (+110) for Louisiana Tech to score under 26.5 points are better than the fair market value (+106), meaning you are getting more return than the true probability implies. The "sharps" (represented by respected sportsbooks) have the line priced around -101 to -110, indicating consensus that the under is more likely than the +110 odds suggest. A 2.0% edge means that over time, bets like this should return a profit due to the favorable discrepancy between market consensus and the offered line.
Bet 5: Sengun Over / Under 6.5 Assists
Books: ProphetX / PointsBet
Odds: +168 / -120
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Sengun Over 6.5 Assists on ProphetX at +168 odds for $81.24 If this side hits you win $217.
Let's say you take Sengun Under 6.5 Assists on PointsBet at -120 odds for $118.76 If this side hits you win $217.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $217
No matter the result you make at least $17.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
