Happy Monday! We have a pair of NFL Monday Night Games. A huge ALCS Game 7 between the Mariners and the Blue Jays. And a couple NHL games to end off the night. Let's stop the chatter and jump directly into the sports betting picks for tonight!
Bet 1: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 15.5 Longest Rush
Book: WynnBet
Odds: +109 (Can take up to -101)
Gibbs has already hit or exceeded this mark in three games this season (top-rushes of 42, 24, and 17 yards in separate contests) which shows his ability to bust one. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay Buccaneers enter the matchup with a notably weak rush defense — they’ve allowed opponents to average about 132 rushing yards per game and were torched for 2,536 yards in 2024, second-worst in the league. With Gibbs’ speed and home field matchup against a defense that remains vulnerable to the long run, taking the over on his longest rush appears to be riding the strength of his own explosiveness plus the Bucs’ documented defensive lapses.
This is also a +EV bet because Wynnbet is offering +109 on Jahmyr Gibbs’ longest rush over 15.5, while the fair market value is -101, giving bettors a 5.1% edge. Sharper books like DraftKings (-120) and BetMGM (-118) have this line priced shorter, signaling market confidence in the over. Gibbs has already cleared this mark in three games this season, and he faces a Buccaneers defense that’s struggled to contain explosive runs, allowing over 100 rushing yards per game. With favorable odds and a strong matchup, the over presents clear value.
Bet 2: Jaxon Smith Njigba Over 0.5 Touchdowns
Book: PointsBet
Odds: +150 (Can take up to +141)
This is also a +EV bet because PointsBet is offering +150 for Jaxon Smith-Njigba to score a touchdown, while the true market value sits around +141, giving a 3.6% edge. Other sharp sportsbooks like Circa (+135) and Pinnacle (+119) have much shorter prices, indicating strong market confidence that this line is mispriced. Smith-Njigba has become an increasing part of Seattle’s red-zone offense, seeing more targets in recent weeks, and he faces a Texans defense that’s allowed multiple WR touchdowns in three of their last four games. With favorable odds and growing opportunity, this anytime TD line provides solid value.
Bet 3: Sean Couturier Over 0.5 Points
Book: Hard Rock
Odds: -105 (Can take up to -108)
Taking the over 0.5 points on Sean Couturier makes sense given his steady production to start the season, already racking up 5 points through the early stretch. He’s playing meaningful minutes on the Flyers’ top lines and power play, giving him plenty of opportunities to stay involved offensively. The matchup is also favorable — the Kraken’s defense has been leaky, surrendering 23 points already this season, showing consistent struggles in containing opposing top-six forwards. Couturier’s combination of ice time, form, and opponent weakness makes this a strong value play to hit the scoresheet again.
This is also a +EV bet because the line at Hard Rock (-105) offers better value than the true market price of -108 and is well below sharper books like Pinnacle (-136) and DraftKings (-125). That gap suggests the market consensus expects Couturier to register at least one point more often than the implied odds at Hard Rock indicate. With a 1.2% edge, you’re effectively backing a statistically favorable position where the probability of Couturier recording a point is slightly undervalued by the book.
Bet 4: Randy Arozarena Under 0.5 Hits
Book: BookMaker
Odds: +130 (Can take up to +120)
Taking the under 0.5 hits on Randy Arozarena looks like a sharp play given his current slump and the difficult matchup ahead. Arozarena has gone hitless in two games so far this series, struggling to find consistent contact at the plate. Now he faces Shane Bieber, a proven ace with elite command and swing-and-miss stuff that has limited right-handed hitters all season. With Bieber’s ability to work the edges and Arozarena’s recent struggles at the plate, there’s solid value in backing him to stay hitless once again.
This is also a +EV bet because BetMGM is offering +130 on Arozarena to go under 0.5 total bases, which is well above the market consensus of around +100 and a fair value of +120. That discrepancy indicates BetMGM’s line is mispriced compared to sharper books, providing a 4.3% edge. Given Arozarena’s inconsistent contact metrics and the potential for a tough pitching matchup, the probability of him being held hitless is higher than the odds suggest, creating long-term value on this side.
Bet 5: Woody Marks Over / Under 7.5 Rush Attempts
Books: PointsBet/ Wynnbet
Odds: -115 / +163
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Woody Marks Over 7.5 Rush Attempts on PointsBet at -115 odds for $116.90 If this side hits you win $218.
Let's say you take Woody Marks Under 7.5 Rush Attempts on Wynnbet at +163 odds for $83.10 If this side hits you win $218.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $218
No matter the result you make at least $18.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
