Happy Wednesday! We have a full 12 game NBA slate, 3 NHL games, and a pair of College Football games to cap off the night. Best time of the year with basketball, hockey, and football all on at the same time, let's get right to the sports betting picks for tonight!
Bet 1: Deni Avdija Over 19.5 Points
Book: PointsBet
Odds: +110 (Can take up to -102)
With Anfernee Simons traded to the Celtics — freeing up a major scoring and playmaking role — and both Scoot Henderson and Robert Williams sidelined, Deni Avdija is in line for a significant uptick in usage and offensive touches for Portland. He’s already proven capable of carrying a heavy scoring load, averaging 30.4 points over his final five games last season, and now steps into a lineup short on established scorers. With more ball-handling duties and shot opportunities available, Avdija should easily have the volume and efficiency to surpass the 19.5-point mark.
This is a strong +EV play with Deni Avdija Over 19.5 points (+110) offering clear market value. Sharper books have this same prop priced between -112 and -123, indicating a fair value of -102 — creating a 6.1% expected edge on PointsBet. Anytime you can grab a prop at plus money where sharp markets are laying juice, it’s a sign of mispriced odds. With Avdija projected for an increased offensive role due to roster changes, the volume supports the number, but the real angle here is the line discrepancy — you’re getting positive closing line value (CLV) on a prop that’s likely to move toward the -110 range before tip-off.
Bet 2: Caris LeVert Over 12.5 Points
Book: Bovada
Odds: +110 (Can take up to +100)
Caris LeVert’s Over 12.5 points is appealing given his expected role as the first man off the bench and primary scorer for Detroit’s second unit. With Jaden Ivey still sidelined, LeVert should see extended minutes and more offensive responsibility, especially in lineups where he’s the clear go-to option. He’s already proven capable of putting up big scoring numbers — including a 31-point game last season — and his shot creation ability makes him a strong candidate to clear this modest line with the added volume and usage he’ll see in this matchup.
This Caris LeVert Over 12.5 points (+110) play offers solid betting value, with sharp books listing the same line between -107 and -124, implying a fair value of +100 and a 5.0% expected edge. Getting a player prop at plus money when sharper markets are juiced to the over is a clear sign of mispriced odds. LeVert’s scoring role off the bench—especially with Jaden Ivey out—supports the projection, but the key betting angle here is line inefficiency. The market is shading toward the over, and locking in +110 now secures positive closing line value (CLV) before potential movement pushes it closer to even or negative odds.
Bet 3: Matt Boldy Under 0.5 Points
Book: Epick
Odds: -118 (Can take up to -127)
Taking the Under 0.5 points for Matt Boldy might look like a contrarian but justified play given the matchup and context. While Boldy has recorded a point in four of his last five games, he now faces one of the league’s toughest defensive teams, allowing under 2.5 goals per game and boasting a top-tier penalty kill. Minnesota’s offense has struggled to generate consistent pressure against elite defenses, and Boldy’s production tends to dip when shot volume is limited — he’s averaged just 2.4 shots per game over that recent stretch. With fewer high-danger looks expected tonight, this sets up as a good spot for Boldy to regress offensively and stay under the 0.5-point mark.
This Matt Boldy Under 0.5 assists (-118) line offers clear +EV value, as sharper books have the same prop priced between -148 and -150, implying a fair value of -127 and giving bettors a 3.3% expected edge. Anytime you can grab a line 20–30 cents better than the sharp consensus, it signals market inefficiency and positive closing line value (CLV) potential. The books with sharper pricing models are shading heavily toward the under, suggesting the true probability is higher than the -118 odds reflect. Even if Boldy has been producing recently, the market movement and sharper pricing indicate this number is misaligned — making the under the mathematically stronger side of the wager.
Bet 4: Missouri State / New Mexico State Over 10.5 1st Quarter Points
Book: FanDuel
Odds: +116 (Can take up to +113)
Betting the over on 10.5 first-quarter points for Missouri State vs. New Mexico State is compelling due to both teams' offensive capabilities and defensive vulnerabilities. Missouri State averaged 34.83 points per game in 2024, ranking among the top teams nationally. They've shown the ability to start games strong, including a 10-point first quarter against SMU. New Mexico State, while averaging 21.6 points per game in 2024, has demonstrated explosive potential, as seen in their 50-40 loss to New Mexico, where they scored early and often. Both teams have shown tendencies to allow points early in games, with New Mexico State's defense allowing 236 points over their last eight road games. Considering these factors, an over bet on 10.5 first-quarter points appears promising.
This is a +EV bet because FanDuel is offering Over 10.5 first-quarter points at +116, while sharp books and market consensus price the same line closer to +113 fair value. That small but meaningful edge (1.5% EV) indicates the odds on FanDuel are slightly mispriced compared to the sharper markets like Pinnacle (+101) and BetRivers (+105). Essentially, you’re getting better-than-true odds on a short-duration market where volatility and scoring bursts can favor the over, making this line worth taking before it corrects to align with sharper books.
Bet 5: Anthony Davis Over / Under 22.5 Points
Books: FanDuel / Bet365
Odds: -188/ +290
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Davis Over 22.5 Points on FanDuel at -188 odds for $143.60 If this side hits you win $219.
Let's say you take Davis Under 22.5 Points on Bet365 at +290 odds for $56.40 If this side hits you win $219
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $219
No matter the result you make at least $19
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
