Happy Monday and happy Sports Equinox day! For only the 32nd time in history the big four sports league are all in action today. NFL, MLB, NBA, and NHL. Without wasting any more time let's jump into a sports betting play for each of these major sports!
Bet 1: Brashad Smith Over 15.5 Receiving Yards
Book: Fanatics
Odds: -125 (Can take up to -130)
Brashad Smith has clearly been trending upward in both usage and production — he’s gone over 15.5 receiving yards in four straight games, showing growing chemistry within the Chiefs’ offensive scheme. His snap count and target share have steadily increased, signaling more trust from the coaching staff and a larger role in the passing game. The Commanders’ defense ranks near the bottom of the league in both passing yards allowed and explosive plays surrendered, making them an ideal matchup for a versatile weapon like Smith. With Kansas City expected to exploit Washington’s weak secondary and soft zone coverage, Smith should see ample opportunities on short routes and checkdowns to easily clear this modest 15.5-yard line.
This is a +EV bet because the current Fanatics line of -125 offers value against a fair price of -130, creating roughly a 1.8% edge. When sharper books are pricing the same prop closer to -140 or higher, it signals the market consensus expects the over to hit more often than the posted odds imply. Essentially, you’re getting a discounted price on the same probability outcome, which is the foundation of +EV betting. Over time, consistently taking these mispriced lines compared to sharper markets generates long-term profitability, even on small percentage edges like this one.
Bet 2: Tyler Glasnow Under 16.5 Pitching Outs
Book: NoVig
Odds: +100 (Can take up to -107)
In his most recent playoff appearances, Glasnow hasn’t routinely gone deep into games — he’s been subject to tighter pitch counts and earlier hooks. Overall in his career postseason work, his innings and outs have been more limited, and the data show his outs per outing tend to fall below what is needed to hit this 16.5 mark. Add to that his recent season usage and the cautious management of his workload, and the under 16.5 outs presents itself as a strong value bet.
This is a +EV bet because the Under 16.5 Outs line is priced at +100, while the fair market value sits around -107, creating a 3.2% edge. Multiple sharp books — including Pinnacle, Circa, and MGM — have this same prop juiced toward the under, implying a higher true probability than the even-money price suggests. Essentially, you’re getting plus money on a side that sharper markets view as the more likely outcome. These types of discrepancies typically arise when slower-moving books lag behind sharper line movement, giving bettors an opportunity to capture positive expected value before the market corrects.
Bet 3: Jonathan Kuminga Over 8.5 RB+AST
Book: Bet365
Odds: +100 (Can take up to -119)
Kuminga is stepping into a bigger role this year — his 2025-26 averages are 7.3 boards and 4.0 assists per game already. In two recent games he’s already cleared this 8.5 line: he had 9 rebounds + 6 assists versus the Los Angeles Lakers (17 points, 9 reb, 6 ast) and 8 rebounds + 3 assists versus the Portland Trail Blazers (16 points, 8 reb, 3 ast).With increased minutes and usage this season (he averaged 24.3 minutes, 15.3 points, 4.6 rebounds and 2.2 assists just last year) he is primed to consistently hit that threshold.
This is a +EV bet because the market price on Jonathan Kuminga’s Over 8.5 Rebounds + Assists is +100 on Bet365, while sharp books have it heavily juiced to the over (ranging from -130 to -170) with a calculated fair value of -119 — creating roughly 8.9% expected value. That means you’re getting a strong price advantage versus sharper lines, implying the true probability of hitting is closer to 54–55% rather than 50%. Kuminga’s expanded role and strong early-season stat lines (clearing this number in 2 of 3 games) support the over, but the key betting edge comes from the mispriced odds — you’re effectively betting on a line that should be shorter, making this a long-term profitable play.
Bet 4: Jordan Kyrou Under 2.5 Shots On Goal
Book: Parlaye
Odds: +137 (Can take up to +112
His average shots per game dropped sharply to ~1.8 so far this 2025-26 season, well under the 2.5 benchmark. In his last 10 games he’s totaled just 16 shots (≈1.6 per game), again falling short of the threshold. Even in the 2024-25 season, while he averaged 2.91 shots per game, that still implies many games with 2 or fewer. Given these trends and a current usage pattern that isn’t generating high shot volume, the under 2.5 line carries value.
This is a +EV bet because Jordan Kyrou’s Under 2.5 Shots on Goal is priced at +137, while sharp books have it closer to -105 with a fair value around +112 — giving an 11.8% expected value edge. That means the market consensus suggests the true probability of this bet hitting is significantly higher than the implied odds you’re paying. Kyrou has gone under this number in 3 of his games this season and is averaging under 2 shots per game, indicating the line may be inflated based on his reputation rather than current form. Getting plus money on a prop that’s being priced shorter by sharper books creates a clear long-term profitable angle.
Bet 5: Duncan Robinson Over / Under 11.5 Points
Books: DraftKings / Bet365
Odds: +135 / -105
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Duncan Robinson Over 11.5 Points Made on DraftKings at +135 odds for $90.76 If this side hits you win $213.
Let's say you take Duncan Robinson Under 11.5 Points Made on Bet365 at -105 odds for $109.24 If this side hits you win $213.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $213
No matter the result you make at least $13.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
