Happy Thursday! We of course have some Thursday Night Football tonight, some NHL games, some NBA games, and a pair of CFB games to end off the slate. Let's get right into the sports betting picks for tonight!
Bet 1: Malik Washington Over 3.5 Receptions
Book: BetMGM
Odds: -115 (Can take up to -122)
Malik Washington has quietly become one of the most reliable options in this offense, clearing 3.5 receptions in four straight games. With Tyreek Hill sidelined, Washington’s role continues to expand — he’s seeing more routes, more targets, and has developed solid chemistry with his quarterback in the short-to-intermediate passing game. The Ravens’ secondary has looked vulnerable, particularly against slot receivers and quick-out concepts, giving Washington a favorable matchup to keep his streak alive. At this number, his consistency and opportunity create strong value on the over 3.5 receptions prop.
This Malik Washington Over 3.5 Receptions (-115) line stands out as a +EV play (+2.7%), backed by clear market inefficiencies. The fair value sits at -122, meaning the current price offers solid value versus what sharp books are implying. Major sharp sportsbooks like Circa (-145), DraftKings (-131), and FanDuel (-154) are all pricing this prop higher, signaling that the true odds favor the over. When multiple sharp books are aligned above market price, it typically indicates a strong edge that hasn’t yet been fully adjusted by the public market — making this a smart, data-backed over bet.
Bet 2: Evander Kane Over 2.5 Shots On Goal
Book: Hard Rock
Odds: +125 (Can take up to +117)
Evander Kane has been on a heater lately, clearing this 2.5 line in three straight games and showing a noticeable uptick in offensive aggression. He’s averaging over 3.4 shots per game on the season, and his recent usage on the top six and power play only boosts his opportunities. The matchup couldn’t be better — the St. Louis Blues rank 31st in goals allowed, giving up one of the highest shot volumes in the league. Their defensive lapses and poor zone coverage often leave space for high-danger chances, exactly where Kane thrives. With his current form and the Blues’ defensive struggles, this number feels a bit too low, making Over 2.5 SOG a strong value play tonight.
This Evander Kane Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+125) play grades out as a +EV bet (+3.5%), with the fair value sitting at +117, signaling strong value versus current market pricing. Sharp books like DraftKings (+115), FanDuel (+102), and BetMGM (-110) are all listing shorter odds, indicating that the true implied probability leans heavily toward the over. When multiple sharp books are aligned this way, it often points to market inefficiency — a situation where public lines haven’t caught up to professional sentiment. With Kane’s recent volume surge and these sharp indicators, this is a classic plus-EV edge worth exploiting.
Bet #3 Dylan Harper Over 4.5 Rebounds
Book: ESPNBet
Odds: +125 (Can take up to +111)
This Dylan Harper Over 4.5 Rebounds (+125) prop grades out as a strong +EV play (+6.7%), with the fair value sitting at +111, meaning there’s a clear edge on the current market price. Sharp books like DraftKings (+116), FanDuel (+116), and PointsBet (+115) are all offering shorter odds, signaling that professional money leans toward the over. When sharp consensus is aligned like this, it usually means the current number is mispriced by the public books, creating a profitable opportunity. With Harper’s rebounding consistency and this market discrepancy, this bet offers one of the highest positive expected values on the board tonight.
Bet #4 McCown Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
Book: Bet365
Odds: +120 (Can take up to +105)
Owen McCown Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns looks like a strong play heading into this matchup. McCown has shown impressive consistency through the air, surpassing this line in multiple games this season, including explosive 3- and 4-touchdown performances that highlight his red-zone efficiency. He’s facing a Tulane defense that has struggled to contain opposing quarterbacks, giving up big plays through the air and ranking below average in passing touchdowns allowed. With McCown’s rhythm in the passing game and Tulane’s shaky secondary, this line sets up as a favorable spot for him to hit two or more scores once again.
Owen McCown Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns is a clear +EV play backed by market data. Bet365 is offering this line at +120, while sharp books like FanDuel, BetRivers, and Fanatics have it priced between -108 and -115, implying a fair value closer to +105. That creates a 7.3% expected value edge — meaning bettors are getting significantly better odds than the true market consensus. When the sharps are already shading this line toward the over and you’re able to grab it at a premium price, that’s the definition of long-term profitable betting. This line not only carries value but also aligns with McCown’s consistent touchdown production and favorable matchup against Tulane’s leaky pass defense.
Bet 5: Baltimore Over / Under 1.5 Team TD's 2nd Half
Books: Bet365 / FanDuel
Odds: -115 / +148
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Baltimore Over 1.5 Team TD's 2nd Half on Bet365 at -115 odds for $114.03 If this side hits you win $213.
Let's say you take Baltimore Under 1.5 Team TD's 2nd Half on FanDuel at +148 odds for $85.97 If this side hits you win $213.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $213
No matter the result you make at least $13.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
