Happy Friday and Happy Halloween! We have game 6 of the World Series tonight, potentially the last MLB game of the season if the Blue Jays can pull it off tonight. Along with the World Series we also have 8 NBA games, a trio of NHL games, and a trio of CFB games. Without further ado let's jump directly into the sports betting picks for tonight!
Bet 1: Will Smith Over 1.5 Total Bases
Book: Fanatics
Odds: +150 (Can take up to +141)
Tonight’s rematch between Will Smith and Kevin Gausman sets up beautifully for the over — Smith already homered off Gausman in Game 2 of this World Series (a go-ahead blast to left that traveled ~403 ft) and historically he hits him well — in 13 career ABs vs. Gausman he’s collected 4 hits (including a double and a homer), a .308 AVG and 1.027 SLG mark add in Gausman’s recent splits — he’s surrendered 6 hits and a homer to lefty bats over his last 4 outings — and you’ve got a hitter who’s already shown he can drive Gausman’s mistakes deep. Smith is locked in, aware of the fastball edge, and tonight’s revenge spot gives strong upside to clear 1.5 total bases.
This Will Smith Over 1.5 Total Bases prop grades out as a clear +EV play tonight. The fair value sits at +141, but Fanatics is offering +150, giving bettors a 3.7% expected value edge on the line. Sharp books like DraftKings, BetMGM, and PointsBet have this same prop priced between +111 and +130, signaling market inefficiency and strong value at current odds. When you can grab a player with proven success against Kevin Gausman—already homering off him earlier in the World Series—at a price above fair market value, it’s exactly the kind of discrepancy sharp bettors target. The data supports it, the market agrees, and the EV edge makes this a profitable long-term wager.
Bet 2: Nikola Vucevic Over 10.5 Rebounds
Book: Hard Rock
Odds: -105 (Can take up to -114)
Nikola Vucevic has been a force on the glass to start the season, going over 10.5 rebounds in 3 of his first 4 games and averaging just over 13 boards per contest. The Bulls have been one of the league’s top rebounding units, pulling down 51 rebounds per game, while the Knicks are sitting at 47, giving Chicago a clear edge on the boards. Vucevic has logged at least 30 minutes in every outing, ranking top-10 among centers in rebound chances per game. With the Knicks relying heavily on jump shots and Mitchell Robinson often pulled away from the basket in pick-and-roll defense, Vucevic should see plenty of clean opportunities on the glass. All signs point to another strong rebounding performance, making the Over 10.5 Rebounds a data-backed play with solid value.
This Nikola Vucevic Over 10.5 Rebounds prop grades as a strong +EV play with a 4.0% expected value edge. The fair value line sits at -114, yet Hard Rock is offering -105, giving bettors meaningful closing line value. Sharp books like DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM are pricing this same prop between -118 and -135, signaling market agreement that this line is mispriced. With Vucevic averaging over 13 rebounds per game and clearing this number in 3 of 4 outings, the statistical edge aligns perfectly with the market data. When a proven rebounder meets both analytical and pricing value, this kind of EV edge becomes the exact type of opportunity sharp bettors target for long-term profit.
Bet 3: Cale Makar Over 2.5 Shots On Goal
Book: BookMaker
Odds: -102 (Can take up to -109)
Cale Makar has been one of the most consistent shot generators among defensemen this season, clearing 2.5 shots on goal in multiple games and averaging just under 4.0 SOG per contest. His aggressive play style and heavy involvement in Colorado’s offense—especially on the top power-play unit—give him steady shooting volume every night. Makar ranks among the top defensemen in shot attempts per 60 minutes, and with his ice time hovering around 25+ minutes per game, the opportunities are always there. Given his recent form and the Avalanche’s fast-paced offense that funnels chances through the blue line, Over 2.5 Shots on Goal sets up as a data-backed play with strong consistency behind it.
This Cale Makar Over 2.5 Shots on Goal prop stands out as a solid +EV play with a 3.3% expected value edge. The fair value price is listed at -109, while BetMGM is offering it at -102, giving bettors clear closing line value. Sharp books like DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetRivers are all pricing this same prop tighter, between -122 and -130, which indicates the market’s sharper side expects this line to move. Makar has cleared this number in multiple games this season and consistently averages close to four shots per game, aligning both the data and market signals. When sharp books are heavier on one side and you can grab a better price, that’s where long-term profitability lies — making this a high-quality +EV betting opportunity.
Bet #4: Rice Over 19.5 Team Points
Book: Bet365
Odds: +145 (Can take up to +138)
Rice has been a steady offensive unit this season, clearing the 19.5 team points line in four games already and averaging just under 27 points per game in the first half alone. Their offense has shown balance and efficiency, fueled by solid quarterback play and a capable run game that keeps defenses honest. The Owls have put up 20+ points in all but one matchup, even against tougher defensive units, proving they can consistently move the ball and finish drives. Facing a defense that’s allowed over 370 total yards per game, Rice is in a favorable spot to continue their scoring trend. With both statistical consistency and matchup advantages on their side, the Over 19.5 Team Points looks like a strong, data-backed play for this week.
This Rice Over 19.5 Team Points prop is showing a clear +EV edge of 3.1%, making it a strong value play in the market. The fair value is listed at +138, while Bet365 is offering +145, giving bettors a solid cushion over the true line. Sharp books like DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics have this same number priced tighter, between +115 and +122, signaling that the sharper side of the market expects movement toward the over. Rice has already surpassed 19.5 points in four games this season, and their offensive consistency aligns perfectly with the value discrepancy here. When you can grab a team over prop priced above fair value with market support and positive EV, it’s exactly the kind of opportunity that yields long-term betting profitability.
Bet 5: Willis Over 70.5 / Under 69.5 Rushing Yards
Books: UniBet / Fanatics
Odds: +210 / -125
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Willis Over 69.5 Rushing Yards on UniBet at +210 odds for $73.47 If this side hits you win $227.
Let's say you take Willis Under 70.5 Rushing Yards on Fanatics at -125 odds for $126.53 If this side hits you win $227.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $227
No matter the result you make at least $27.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
