Happy Tuesday! We have a Frozen Frenzy over in the NHL with all 32 teams in action. Along with that we also have some NBA games, some CFB games, and of course World Series Game 4! Let's jump right into the sports betting picks for tonight.
Bet 1: Dylan Larkin Over 2.5 Shots On Goal
Book: Hard Rock
Odds: +110 (Can take up to +103)
Dylan Larkin Over 2.5 Shots on Goal is a strong look tonight, as he’s already cleared this line in two games this season and continues to fire the puck at a high rate, averaging 3.6 SOG per game. Last season, he recorded 234 shots over 82 games (2.9 per game), showing consistent shot volume across years. He now faces a struggling St. Louis Blues defense that’s allowing 4.33 goals per game this season, ranking 31st out of 32 teams. With Larkin leading Detroit’s top line and top power-play unit against one of the league’s weakest defenses, the volume and matchup both point toward him exceeding his 2.5 SOG line.
This is a +EV (positive expected value) bet because the Over 2.5 Shots on Goal for Dylan Larkin is priced at +110, while sharp books like Pinnacle and DraftKings have it closer to -105 to -113, implying a fair value of +103. That means you’re getting about 3.3% edge over the market consensus — a key signal that the price is misaligned in your favor. With Larkin averaging 3.6 shots per game this season and facing a Blues defense allowing 4.33 goals per game (31st in the NHL), the data supports the over, and the odds provide clear value compared to sharper markets
Bet 2: Cason Wallace Over 4.5 Rebounds
Book: Bet365
Odds: +115 (Can take up to -101)
Cason Wallace Over 4.5 Rebounds is a strong look tonight, as he’s already cleared this line in two games this season with 5 and 7 rebounds, showing his ability to crash the glass effectively even as a guard. The matchup also works in his favor — the Kings are averaging just 36 rebounds per game, one of the lowest marks in the league, while Oklahoma City ranks near the top at 50 rebounds per game. With OKC’s high-tempo style and strong rebounding presence, Wallace should continue to find opportunities for loose and long rebounds, making the over 4.5 line very attainable.
Bet 3: Enrique Hernandez Over 1.5 Total Bases
Book: Fanatics
Odds: +145 (Can take up to +130)
Enrique Hernández Over 1.5 Total Bases is a strong look tonight after he cleared this line last night against the Blue Jays, showing great timing at the plate in this World Series matchup. He’s been swinging the bat well lately and now faces Shane Bieber, a pitcher he’s had past success against — going 3-for-6 (.500) in his career with a .500 slugging percentage. Bieber has also allowed a .265 opponent batting average this season, showing some vulnerability to contact. With Hernández’s postseason momentum, his recent multi-base performance, and a favorable matchup against a pitcher who can give up hard contact, the over 1.5 total bases line carries solid value.
This Enrique Hernández Over 1.5 Runs + Hits + RBIs prop is a clear +EV play because it’s listed at +145, while sharp books like Pinnacle and DraftKings have it priced between +100 and +116, implying a fair value of +130 — giving bettors roughly a 6.3% edge over the market. That means you’re getting significantly better odds than the consensus sharp price. Given Hernández’s recent production — clearing this line last night against Toronto — and his favorable spot against Shane Bieber, who’s shown signs of decline this season, the statistical edge and pricing discrepancy make this a strong value-backed wager.
Bet 4: Christian Moss Over 49.5 Receiving Yards
Book: Unibet
Odds: +105 (Can take up to -100)
He’s cleared this line in 4 of 5 games this season, showing consistent involvement and chemistry with his quarterback. Moss continues to be a reliable deep threat, averaging over 16 yards per catch, which gives him multiple paths to hit this number on just a few receptions. He also draws a dream matchup against a UTEP defense that ranks near the bottom nationally in passing yards allowed and struggles to contain explosive plays downfield. Given Moss’s efficiency and UTEP’s poor secondary metrics, this line feels a few yards too low — making the over a smart, data-backed play.
This Christian Moss Over 49.5 Receiving Yards prop is a +EV (+2.7%) play, with Unibet offering +105, while sharp books like Pinnacle, Bookmaker, and FanDuel price the same line between -112 and -117—implying fair odds closer to -100. That discrepancy signals value, as you’re getting plus money on a line the market views as nearly even. Moss has also hit this number in 4 of 5 games, and he faces a UTEP defense ranked near the bottom in passing yards allowed, increasing his probability of clearing this total. When the market consensus sits below even money but a book offers +105, it’s a strong indicator of positive expected value backed by both player trends and sharp market positioning.
Bet 5: Kalkbrenner Over / Under 1.5 Blocks
Books: FanDuel / UniBet
Odds: +162/ -129
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Kalkbrenner Over 1.5 Blocks on FanDuel at +162 odds for $80.78 If this side hits you win $211.
Let's say you take Kalkbrenner Under 1.5 Blocks on UniBet at -129 odds for $119.22 If this side hits you win $211.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $211
No matter the result you make at least $11.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
