Happy Friday! We finally made it to the end of the week. And we have a stacked slate to bet on today, 73 CBB Games, 9 NBA Games, 4 NHL Games, and a pair of 2 CFB Games to cap off the night. Let's jump into the sports betting picks to end off the week!
Bet 1: Cincinnati +7.5 Spread
Book: Hard Rock
Odds: +130 (Can take up to +119)
Cincinnati +7.5 is looking like a solid play: they’re undefeated so far this season (4–0) and they get to defend home court at the Heritage Bank Center — a real plus when backing an underdog. Defensively, they’re elite — allowing just 61.0 ppg, forcing high turnovers, and holding opponents to 35.6% shooting. Their pace control is another edge: they push their own offense quickly while forcing opponents into a slower tempo, which could disrupt Louisville’s flow. Even if Louisville tries to crash the boards, Cincy’s physical, disciplined style should limit second-chance points and keep this game within reach.
Cincinnati +7.5 qualifies as a +EV play because the market price of +130 is meaningfully higher than the model-derived fair value of +119, creating a clear edge and translating to an expected value of +5.1% on the wager. That discrepancy signals you’re being paid more than the true implied probability justifies. Additionally, sharp indicators backing this side reinforce the value, suggesting respected bettors see Cincinnati as undervalued at this number. When sharp money aligns with a mispriced line and the edge is quantified at over 5%, it’s a strong signal that the spread is offering long-term profitable potential.
Bet #2 Cameron Johnson Over 12.5 Points
Book: Bovada
Odds: +130 (Can take up to +107)
Cameron Johnson over 12.5 points is a strong look because his role and shot profile naturally support consistent scoring output. He averaged 18.8 PPG last season while knocking down 39.0% from three on high volume, and he regularly sees 30+ minutes, which keeps his usage stable. Johnson thrives as a floor-spacer and secondary scorer, benefiting from kick-out opportunities and transition threes, and he’s hit 13+ points in the majority of his starts when his minutes are intact. With his ability to score at all three levels — spot-up threes, cuts to the rim, and mid-range pull-ups — he doesn’t need an outlier shooting night to clear this number, making 12.5 a modest threshold for a player with his efficiency and offensive involvement.
Cameron Johnson Over 12.5 points is a clear +EV play because the available price of +130 is significantly better than the projected fair value of +107, creating an expected value edge of +11.2%. This gap indicates the market is undervaluing his true scoring probability, giving bettors a favorable long-term position. The presence of sharp money on this side — with respected books posting numbers around +100 to -113 — further validates the play, showing professional bettors also see value in the over. When sharp alignment and a double-digit EV percentage converge, it signals a strong mathematical edge on this prop.
Bet #3 Josh Doan Under 0.5 Points
Book: UniBet
Odds: +100 (Can take up to -115)
Josh Doan under 0.5 points is a smart bet here: he’s averaged just 1.97 shots per game in his NHL career, which limits his opportunity to score. His typical ice time (~ 13–15 min/game) and his role don’t suggest he’ll be heavily involved offensively. Plus, the Blackhawks are a tough matchup — they’ve tightened up defensively, and despite past struggles, they’re allowing a moderate 2.55–2.75 goals per game, which makes big scoring nights from depth players like Doan less likely.
Josh Doan Under 0.5 points grades as a strong +EV play because the available price of +100 is well above the projected fair value of -115, creating a measurable edge of +7.0% on the wager. This suggests the true probability of Doan failing to record a point is being undervalued by the market. Sharp indicators further support this, with respected books pricing the under as high as -131 to -137, signaling professional bettors agree the line should be significantly juiced to the under. When sharp consensus and a notable gap between market price and fair value align like this, it points to a clear mathematical advantage on the under side.
Bet #4 NC State Over 27.5 Team Points
Book: Bet365
Odds: +128 (Can take up to +109)
NC State Over 27.5 team points is a solid bet: they’re averaging 32.4 PPG this season, up from ~29.9 last year. Their offense is strong, ranking 51st in FBS in total yards (409 YPG) and 35th in passing (262 YPG). Meanwhile, Florida State’s defense has been vulnerable — NC State’s been able to sustain drives, especially in the red zone, and Florida State ranks just 29th in scoring defense, allowing around 20.3 PPG. With their offensive efficiency and FSU’s defensive leaks, NC State has a very realistic path to hit 28+ points.
NC State Over 27.5 Team Points is a strong +EV play because the market is offering +128 while the true projected fair value sits at +109, creating an edge of +8.9% on this line. That gap shows bettors are being paid more than the implied probability justifies, giving this over a clear mathematical advantage. Sharp indicators reinforce the value as well, with respected books pricing the same outcome closer to -100 to -115, signaling professional bettors view the over as more likely than the current odds suggest. When sharp alignment pairs with nearly a 9% EV difference between market price and fair value, it highlights a mispriced team total with strong long-term profitability potential.
Bet 5: Bedard Over 3.5 / Under 3.5 Shots On Goal
Books: UniBet / NoVig
Odds: +140 / +110
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Bedard Over 3.5 Shots On Goal on UniBet at +140 odds for $93.33. If this side hits you win $223.
Let's say you take Bedard Under 3.5 Shots On Goal on NoVig at +110 odds for $106.67. If this side hits you win $223.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $223
No matter the result you make at least $23.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
