Happy Monday! We have a complete slate today which features MNF Panthers vs 49ers, 10 NBA Games, 7 NHL Games, and 60+ CBB games throughout the day. Without wasting anymore time let's jump into the sports betting picks for today!
Bet #1: Ja'Tavion Sanders Over 2.5 Receptions
Book: Bet365
Odds: +130 (Can take up to +124)
Ja’Tavion Sanders Over 2.5 receptions is a strong look based on both usage and matchup. He’s already cleared this number in 4 games this season, consistently seeing enough involvement to reach at least three catches when on the field, including outings with 3, 5 and even 9 receptions, showing his role isn’t purely situational. His snap share and route participation have been steadily trending upward, and he’s become a reliable short-area option, especially on early downs and play-action concepts. The matchup also lines up well, as the 49ers allow a steady volume of receptions to opposing tight ends, routinely funneling targets underneath due to their scheming against perimeter receivers. San Francisco has been susceptible to tight ends working the middle of the field, giving up above-average catch totals and efficiency to the position, which directly benefits a player like Sanders who operates in that zone. With his established ability to clear this line and a defense that invites TE involvement, the over 2.5 receptions carries solid statistical support.
Ja’Tavion Sanders Over 2.5 receptions at +130 presents clear value when compared to the market and sharp consensus, making it a legitimate +EV play at 2.8%. Sharps are already pricing this prop tighter in the +113 to +117 range, signaling that respected money views this line as mispriced. With the calculated fair value at +124, getting +130 creates an edge over the true implied probability, giving bettors extra cushion beyond what the market suggests. This discrepancy between sportsbook odds and sharp pricing indicates the line is shaded too heavily toward the under, and when you combine that with Sanders’ proven ability to clear this number and a favorable matchup for TE receptions, the pricing inefficiency is exactly what defines a profitable +EV opportunity.
Bet #2: Jabari Smith Over 6.5 Rebounds
Book: UniBet
Odds: -107 (Can take up to -116)
Taking Jabari Smith Jr. Over 6.5 rebounds is supported by both recent form and season-long production, as he’s gone over this line in 4 of his last 5 games while maintaining a consistent 6.9 rebounds per game on the year. His role in Houston’s front court keeps him heavily involved on the glass, especially in lineups where the Rockets emphasise physicality and second-chance opportunities. Houston also ranks among the better rebounding teams, averaging 49.5 rebounds per game, which reflects their overall commitment to crashing the boards and creates additional volume for Smith. On the other side, Phoenix is pulling down just 43 rebounds per game, showing a clear disparity in rebounding output that favors Houston in this matchup. With Smith’s recent consistency, strong season average, and a significant team rebounding edge, the over 6.5 line remains a well-supported and data-backed play.
Jabari Smith Jr. Over 6.5 rebounds at -107 qualifies as a strong +EV play at 3.7% because the available price is noticeably softer than where sharp money and true odds suggest it should be. Sharps are already backing this over in the -123 to -144 range, indicating respected bettors are comfortable laying a steeper price than what’s currently being offered. With the calculated fair value sitting at -116, getting in at -107 provides an edge over the actual implied probability of the outcome. When sportsbook pricing lags behind sharp consensus and fair value by nearly 10 cents, it creates exactly the type of inefficiency bettors look for — making this a clear, analytically supported +EV opportunity.
Bet #3: Blue Jackets / Capitals Over 6.5 Total Score
Book: BetSafe
Odds: +129 (Can take up to +109)
The case for Blue Jackets / Capitals Over 6.5 continues to trend strongly in the direction of goals, with both teams consistently involved in high-scoring environments. Columbus ranks among the league’s weaker defensive units, allowing over 3.5 goals per game, and their aggressive forecheck often leads to wide-open play and extended zone time for opponents. Washington, on the other hand, thrives in transition and power-play situations, converting at an efficient rate and generating a high volume of scoring chances per game. Both teams also play at above-average pace, which directly correlates to increased shot totals and more quality looks around the net. Recent head-to-head meetings between these sides have regularly produced 7+ goals, and with Columbus prone to defensive breakdowns and Washington possessing elite finishers, the matchup sets up perfectly for sustained offensive pressure on both ends, making the Over 6.5 a very favorable and well-supported angle.
The Blue Jackets vs Capitals Over 6.5 at +129 is a clear +EV play at 9.6% because the current price is well above where the market and sharp money believe it should be. Sharps are already comfortably backing this total in the -101 to +103 range, signaling that respected bettors see the true probability as significantly higher than what +129 implies. With the calculated fair value sitting at +109, you’re gaining a substantial edge by locking in +129, creating a meaningful gap between sportsbook pricing and true odds. When sharp consensus and fair value both sit well below the available number, it highlights a mispriced line — and that discrepancy is exactly what defines a strong +EV betting opportunity.
Bet #4: Denver vs Arizona Under 153.5 Total Points
Book: Hard Rock
Odds: +115 (Can take up to +104)
There’s a solid case for taking the Denver vs. Arizona Under 153.5 due to the way both teams control tempo and lean into half-court execution. Denver operates at a slow, methodical pace, prioritizing efficient shot selection and long offensive possessions, while Arizona also ranks on the lower end of the tempo scale, further limiting total possessions in this matchup. Fewer trips up and down the floor naturally cap scoring opportunities, and both sides tend to rely heavily on structured sets rather than quick-transition offense. Defensively, Denver does a strong job contesting perimeter looks and forcing opponents into late-clock attempts, while Arizona’s offensive efficiency tends to dip against disciplined defenses that slow the game down. When you factor in reduced pace, deliberate offensive styles, and a matchup that sets up for extended possessions and fewer fast-break chances, the 153.5 total projects slightly inflated, making the under a well-supported and logical play.
The Under 153.5 at +115 on Denver vs Arizona stands out as a strong +EV play at 5.4% because the current price is notably higher than what sharp money and true probability indicate. Sharps are already shaping this total in the -102 to -110 range, signaling that respected bettors believe the under should be favored, not offered at plus money. With the calculated fair value at +104, locking in +115 gives bettors extra edge over the true implied odds, creating a clear gap between market pricing and reality. When sharp consensus and fair value both point to a much shorter number, that discrepancy highlights a mispriced line — and that inefficiency is exactly what creates a profitable +EV betting opportunity.
Bet 5: Filipowski Over 1.5 / Under 1.5 3-Pointers Made
Books: BetMGM / Bet365
Odds: +300 / -185
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Filipowski Over 1.5 3's on BetMGM at +300 odds for $55.61. If this side hits you win $222.
Let's say you take Filipowski Under 1.5 3's on Bet365 at -185 odds for $144.39. If this side hits you win $222.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $222
No matter the result you make at least $22.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
