Happy Thursday! Yesterday's bets went 3/4 with Josh Hart being the one to sell us unfortunately, he thought yesterday would be a great day to his best Dennis Rodman Impersonation and grab all the rebounds. But moving onto today we of course have TNF Bills vs Texans, 4 NBA Games, 12 NHL Games, and 38 CBB games. Let's jump straight into the sports betting picks for tonight.
Bet 1: James Cook lll Over 0.5 Touchdowns
Book: ESPNBet
Odds: +100 (Can take up to -104)
Taking James Cook over 0.5 touchdowns tonight is a very reasonable bet: Cook has already piled up 7 rushing touchdowns this season. He’s shown a nose for the end zone and the explosive ability — he ran for a career-high 216 yards and two touchdowns in one game. Meanwhile, the Texans’ run defense, while solid on paper, has been beatable: they’ve allowed around 103 rushing yards per game and 9 rushing TD's to RB's this season. In short: Cook’s red-zone usage, efficiency, and touchdown production make over 0.5 a smart play against a Houston front that isn’t historically dominant vs. the run.
This is also a +EV bet because you’re getting +100 on James Cook Anytime TD while sharp books like Pinnacle, Circa, and DraftKings are pricing the same prop between –120 and –105, with a Fair Value of –104. Those sharper odds imply Cook has a 52–55% true probability to score, while +100 only requires a 50% break-even rate, meaning the market believes Cook is more likely to find the end zone than the odds you're being offered. When the implied probability is higher than the break-even probability, you’re locking in a mathematical advantage, making this a legitimate positive expected value play.
Bet 2: Russell Westbrook Over 7.5 Rebounds
Book: Bovada
Odds: +115 (Can take up to -105)
This is also a +EV bet because you’re getting Over 7.5 rebounds on Westbrook at +115 while the sharps are heavily shaded on the opposite side, pricing this closer to the -116 to -128 range, which signals where sharper money believes the true probability lies. The fair value of -105 further supports that the true line should be shorter than the offered price, meaning you’re capturing meaningful line value. With an EV of +10.3%, the sportsbook is effectively overpaying for this outcome relative to its true odds, giving you a long-term edge by taking advantage of mispriced market numbers.
Bet 3: Bobby McMann Over 1.5 Shots On Goal
Book: BetRivers
Odds: -150 (Can take up to -164)
Bobby McMann over 1.5 shots on goal stands out as a strong look because he has covered this line in 4 straight games, recording 12 total shots over that span, an average of 3.0 shots per game — double the requirement. His recent usage has trended upward with consistent shifts in an offensive role, and he’s seeing enough ice time to sustain volume, particularly at even strength where most of his attempts are coming from. When a player is generating this level of repeatable shot volume while the line remains as low as 1.5, it suggests the market hasn’t fully adjusted to his current involvement and opportunity.
Bobby McMann over 1.5 shots on goal is a +EV play because you’re able to grab -150 while sharp books are pricing this prop significantly shorter, ranging from -181 to as high as -210, which clearly indicates where the more efficient money believes the true probability sits. The model also lists a fair value of -164, confirming that the current market number is still offering extra value compared to its expected price. With an EV of +3.5%, this wager provides a measurable edge by backing McMann at a line that hasn’t fully adjusted to sharper consensus or true implied odds.
Bet 4: Northern Kentucky vs Central Michigan Under 145.5 Points
Book: Hard Rock
Odds: +115 (Can take up to -102)
Northern Kentucky vs Central Michigan under 145.5 is attractive because the matchup lines up as a tempo and efficiency play — both teams have shown a tendency to play at a slower pace and generate below-average scoring outputs when matched against disciplined defenses. Northern Kentucky has been efficient defensively, clogging driving lanes and limiting easy inside looks, while Central Michigan has struggled to sustain high offensive efficiency away from transition, turning the ball over enough to blunt sustained scoring runs. When you combine their recent game scripts (multiple outings this season with low second-half scoring) and their reliance on half-court sets rather than fast breaks, the market total looks elevated: 145.5 requires both teams to suddenly find above-average shooting and pace, which hasn’t been the case in their recent meetings and comparable matchups — making the under a sound value play.
Northern Kentucky vs Central Michigan under 145.5 qualifies as a +EV play because you’re taking +115 on a total that sharp books are consistently pricing shorter, with respected markets sitting between -109 and -115, signalling that smarter money is leaning toward a lower-scoring outcome. The model’s fair value of -102 further reinforces that the true line should be closer to even money or worse, not plus odds, meaning you’re being paid above the expected price. With an EV of +8.4%, this under offers a clear mathematical edge by capitalising on a number that remains inflated relative to sharp consensus and true probability.
Bet 5: Porzingis Over 6.5 / Under 6.5 Rebounds + Assists
Books: Fanatics / Bovada
Odds: +105 / +200
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Porzingis Over 6.5 Rebounds + Assists on Fanatics at +105 odds for $118.81. If this side hits you win $243.
Let's say you take Porzingis Under 6.5 Rebounds + Assists on Bovada at +200 odds for $81.19. If this side hits you win $243.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $243
No matter the result you make at least $43.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
