Happy Monday! In the last blog we went a solid 3/4 with Evan Mobley being the one to let us down. Let's try and keep the streak going as we have a solid slate of games tonight. MNF Cowboys vs Raiders, 8 NBA Games, 6 NHL Games, and 34 CBB games. Let's get right into the sports betting picks for tonight!
Bet 1: CeeDee Lamb Over 87.5 Rec Yards
Book: NoVig
Odds: +108 (Can take up to -102)
CeeDee Lamb over 87.5 receiving yards makes sense given both his usage and the matchup. He’s already cleared this number in three games this season, and his target share continues to sit in elite territory with Dallas scheming him open at all levels of the field. The Raiders also profile as one of the weaker pass defenses in the league — they struggle to generate consistent pressure, their secondary has been beaten repeatedly on intermediate and deep routes, and opposing WR1s have consistently posted big yardage totals. With Dallas leaning heavily on the passing game and Lamb operating as the unquestioned focal point, the combination of volume, efficiency, and a soft matchup sets up well for him to surpass 87.5 yards.
This is also a +EV bet because the market price and sharp action both signal mispricing: Sharps are laying juice (books showing -125 to -112 on the same side) while our aggregated “fair value” sits near -102 — the card itself shows a +5.2% edge — meaning the consensus books are offering +108 when the true win-probability implied by sharp money is higher. From a football standpoint Lamb is Dallas’ primary receiving threat with high snap and target share in a pass-heavy offense, which puts him in position to generate volume even if the game script tilts; the Raiders’ secondary matchup and tendency to concede intermediate workables plays into Lamb’s strengths as a route-runner who wins in space. Put those together — superior role and matchup + sharp money disagreeing with public price — and you have a systematic edge, not just a hopeful pick.
Bet 2: Isaiah Hartenstein Over 13.5 RB + AST
Book: BetMGM
Odds: +100 (Can take up to -108)
Hartenstein over 13.5 (rebounds + assists) is looking very sharp — he’s crushed that line in 3 of his last 5 games, with big rebounding nights and reliable playmaking. In the two games he didn’t hit it, both were blowouts where he played limited minutes (just about 20), which really capped his counting stats. On the season, he’s averaging 10.7 boards and 3.8 assists per game. Given his consistent role as OKC’s primary big man, his rebound rate (he’s among the team leaders) and his passing usage, the 13.5 mark feels very attainable — especially when he’s on the floor for 25–30 minutes.
This is +EV because the market and sharps disagree with the public price: sharps have been laying juice on the same side (books showing roughly -127, -122 and -126), while our aggregated fair value sits near -108 — yet the publicly available line is +100, leaving about a 3.8% edge. On the court Hartenstein is Oklahoma City’s primary big for rebounds and short-roll facilitation, and he’s hit this 13.5 line comfortably in 3 of his last 5 games; the two misses came in clear blowouts where his minutes were limited (≈20 minutes), not because of a sustained decline in production. Matchup-wise New Orleans tends to allow offensive rebound/paint time that fuels Hartenstein’s board rate and gives him easy assist opportunities on close-range kick-outs, so the combination of role + matchup plus sharp money tilting the true probability higher makes buying +100 here a systematic value bet, not a gut play.
Bet 3: Sebastian Aho Over 2.5 Shots On Goal
Book: UniBet
Odds: +100 (Can take up to -105)
Sebastian Aho is a clean value play here because his recent shot volume strongly exceeds the 2.5 threshold: across the last five games he’s registered 22 shots total — an average of 4.4 shots per game (22 ÷ 5 = 4.4) — and he’s cleared the 2.5 SOG line in 4 of those 5 games (80%), showing consistent line coverage rather than a single outlier. Aho is the primary offensive driver on his line, getting the majority of his team’s looks in the slot and traffic areas where high-quality shot attempts come from, so a 2.5 line understates his current role and usage; put simply, his recent usage profile (4.4 SOG/game) makes 2.5 appear conservative, giving this bet a statistical edge rather than a guess.
Sebastian Aho’s over 2.5 shots on goal grades out as a +EV play because the available +100 line at Unibet is meaningfully off-market compared to sharp books pricing the same prop between -117 and -125, which implies a truer fair value around -105. That gap suggests the market’s most respected oddsmakers expect Aho to clear this number more often than the even-money price implies. Aho also historically sees elevated shot volume in competitive games against strong opponents like Boston, where Carolina leans more heavily on its top line for offensive generation. When you combine matchup-driven opportunity with consensus sharp pricing that heavily favors the over, the discrepancy creates a measurable positive expected value edge.
Bet #4 Gonzaga -21 Spread 1H
Book: Bovada
Odds: +105 (Can take up to +100)
Gonzaga -21 in the first half makes sense because the Bulldogs have opened the season looking every bit like a top-15 team, sitting at 4–0 and ranked #13 nationally, with all four wins coming by dominant margins driven by elite tempo and efficiency. Their offense currently ranks among the strongest early-season units, consistently jumping on opponents with double-digit first-half leads thanks to high shooting percentages and overwhelming size inside. Southern Utah, meanwhile, is severely outmatched on paper — they’ve struggled defensively, allowing big opponents to score efficiently at the rim and in transition, and they don’t have the depth, size, or pace to trade blows with a team of Gonzaga’s caliber. Given the talent gap, early-season form, and Gonzaga’s history of fast starts, laying -21 in the first half is backed by both data and matchup dynamics.
Gonzaga -21 in the first half at +105 qualifies as a +EV play because sharp books — including Circa, Bookmaker, and BetOnline — are all pricing the same number between -108 and -110, implying a more accurate fair line of +100. That means the market’s most respected oddsmakers see Gonzaga as more likely to cover this aggressive first-half spread than the plus-money price suggests. Southern Utah’s significant talent gap and pace vulnerability amplify Gonzaga’s ability to create early separation, especially at home where the Bulldogs historically start fast and overwhelm mid-major opponents with efficiency and depth. The combination of strong matchup dynamics and clear off-market value is what produces the positive expected value edge.
Bet 5: Murray Jr Over 6.5 / Under 6.5 Tackles + Assists
Books: ProphertX / BetWay
Odds: +152 / +100
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Murray Jr Over 6.5 Tackles + Assists on ProphetX at +152 odds for $90. If this side hits you win $223.
Let's say you take Murray Jr Under 6.5 Tackles + Assists on BetWay at +100 odds for $110. If this side hits you win $223.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $223
No matter the result you make at least $23.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
