Happy Thursday! We're one step closer to the weekend and we have a great slate tonight to get us through. On the docket for tonight we have 26 College Basketball Games, 10 NHL Games, 3 NBA Games, and of course TNF Patriots vs Jets. Let's jump right into the sports betting picks for tonight.
Bet 1: Alcorn State vs Howard Under 155.5 Total Points
Book: Bet365
Odds: -105 (Can take up to -112)
Alcorn State enters averaging just 65.0 points per game (ranking around 332nd) and shooting only ~43 % from the field, clearly one of the weakest offenses in Division I. Meanwhile, Howard allows opponents to score around 77.3 points per game and is itself scoring roughly 80.0 ppg this season — not exactly elite offense despite the average. With Alcorn struggling to generate efficient offense and Howard’s defense leaking close to that 77-point mark, both teams show characteristics of under-performing units when it comes to scoring. Couple that with recent games for Alcorn where they shot as low as 33.9 % and were held under 70 by much stronger opponents. So given Alcorn’s offensive woes and Howard’s middling defense, a combined total under 155.5 looks quite reasonable.
This +EV play on Alcorn State vs. Howard (Under 155.5 at -105 on Bet365) stands out thanks to clear market inefficiency. The fair value sits at -112, meaning the true odds imply a stronger likelihood of the under hitting than Bet365’s current price reflects. Sharp books have already adjusted—posting odds between -137 and -120—which indicates professional action is leaning heavily toward the under. That creates a 3.1% expected value (EV) edge, signaling that over the long run, this wager offers positive profitability. Simply put, you’re getting a discounted line versus where the sharpest books in the market have already moved.
Bet 2: Adam Fantilli Over 2.5 Shots On Goal
Book: BetRivers
Odds: +120 (Can take up to +112)
He’s averaging roughly 2.6 shots per game this season, with an even higher rate recently as his confidence and ice time have grown. Over his last four games, he’s covered this line in all four, posting totals of 5, 3, 5, and 2 shots — showing consistent offensive activity and an increased shooting mindset. He’s also skating top-six minutes with power play exposure, giving him more high-danger opportunities. Opposing defenses have allowed a high volume of shots to centers like Fantilli, further supporting the over. Given his uptick in attempts, steady role in offensive-zone situations, and recent form, this prop holds clear value at Over 2.5 SOG.
This Adam Fantilli Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (+120 on BetRivers) line presents a clear +EV opportunity of 3.6%, supported by strong market discrepancies. The fair value sits at +112, implying this line should be priced shorter, and sharp books are already reflecting that—sitting between -103 and -105. That difference signals that sharp money expects Fantilli to generate enough volume to clear this mark more often than the current odds suggest. With sportsbooks like Pinnacle and DraftKings pricing the same prop closer to even money, BetRivers’ +120 offers a rare value edge. When you combine that with Fantilli’s recent shot consistency, the math supports this as a profitable long-term wager.
Bet 3: Evan Mobley Over 32.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists
Book: Hard Rock
Odds: -110 (Can take up to -118)
He has hit this mark in his last two games, putting up 24 pts/8 reb/5 ast and 21/10/5 respectively. Meanwhile, his opponent the Toronto Raptors rank 28th in the league in fantasy-points allowed to opposing bigs — they concede about 46.4 fantasy points per game to frontcourt players. Mobley is consistently logging 33–39 minutes, handling top-tier usage and playmaking duties on the interior, giving him the volume in points, rebounds and assists to clear this line. The matchup, his recent form and his role all align to give this prop a value edge.
This Evan Mobley Over 32.5 PRA (-110 on Hard Rock Bet) stands out as a strong +EV play with a 3.3% edge, backed by clear market inefficiency. The fair value is set at -118, meaning the current line undervalues Mobley’s true probability of going over. Sharp books like Pinnacle, FanDuel, and NoVig are already much more aggressive—pricing the same prop between -130 and -151—indicating that professional money is heavily backing the over. With Mobley coming off two consecutive games clearing this number and facing a Raptors team that ranks among the league’s worst in defending opposing bigs, the underlying metrics and market movement both support this as a profitable +EV opportunity.
Bet 4: TreVeyon Henderson Over 2.5 Receptions
Book: FanDuel
Odds: +108 (Can take up to +103)
He caught 4 passes in his Week 9 win over the Atlanta Falcons, showing he’s capable of clearing that mark even when his role is a bit limited. With Rhamondre Stevenson ruled out, Henderson becomes the go-to back in both the running and passing game, freeing him up for more check-downs and receptions. And as his coach Mike Vrabel confirmed, Henderson is expected to take on a “big load” Thursday night vs. the New York Jets — which should push his usage in the passing game beyond his average of ~2 catches per game this season.
This TreVeyon Henderson Over 2.5 Receptions (+108 on FanDuel) stands out as a +EV play with a 2.6% edge, supported by strong market signals. The fair value is +103, suggesting the current number is slightly mispriced in favor of bettors. Sharp books like Pinnacle, NorthStar, and DraftKings are all pricing this prop between -115 and -107, implying that professional money sees value on the over. With Rhamondre Stevenson ruled out and Henderson projected for an increased workload — confirmed by the coach’s comment that he’ll get a “big load” — his target share should spike, especially against a Jets defense that allows high reception totals to opposing backs. When you combine the market discrepancy and positive EV%, this prop offers a clear edge for bettors.
Bet 5: Kaufman Renn Over 1.5 / Under 1.5 Assists
Books: Hard Rock / ProphetX
Odds: +135 / +130
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Kaufman Renn Over 1.5 Assists on Hard Rock at +135 odds for $98.92. If this side hits you win $232.
Let's say you take Kaufman Renn Under 1.5 Assists on ProphetX at +135 odds for $98.92. If this side hits you win $232.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $232
No matter the result you make at least $32.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
