Happy Monday! We have a solid slate of games to begin this week. Of course we have Monday Night Football which should be a great game between the Eagles and Packers. We also have 40 College Basketball games in action, 4 NHL games, and 9 NBA games. Let's jump right into the sports betting picks for tonight!
Bet 1: Barkley Over 2.5 Receptions
Book: Bet365
Odds: +100 (Can take up to -113)
Barkley is a strong bet to clear the 2.5-reception line this week, largely because he’s averaging 3.0 receptions per game this season (24 catches in 8 games) which places him comfortably above the threshold. His target volume is 28 receptions in those eight games, showing consistent usage as a pass-catch option out of the backfield. Even though his primary role is as a runner (127 carries for 519 yards so far), the fact that he’s being utilized in the passing game at a rate of nearly four targets per game makes 3+ receptions a realistic floor. He has covered this line in 5 games this season already, with the seasonal average and his consistent reception rate strongly support the argument that taking Barkley for over 2.5 receptions is backed by data rather than guesswork.
Saquon Barkley over 2.5 receptions at +100 on Bet365 stands out as a clear +EV play (+6.2%), backed by sharp market consensus and fair value modeling. Multiple sharp books, including Pinnacle (-119), BookMaker (-119), and NoVig (-138), price this prop significantly shorter, implying the true line should sit around -113 fair value. That means Bet365’s +100 is mispriced — offering value where the market’s most efficient books already lean toward the over. Barkley has cleared this line in five games this season, and his consistent involvement in the passing game gives this bet statistical support as well. When sharp books cluster below -120 and public books hang +100, it signals positive expected value — a key indicator that this line should be bet before the market adjusts.
Bet 2: TCU Horned Frogs -17.5 Point Spread
Book: Hard Rock
Odds: -110 (Can take up to -124)
TCU -17.5 looks like a strong play tonight against Lamar, especially after the Horned Frogs erupted for 104 points in their last game against Saint Francis. That game showed off TCU’s scoring depth and efficiency — they shot over 55% from the field, had five players in double figures, and forced 20 turnovers on defense. Lamar, meanwhile, comes from the Southland Conference, one of the lowest-rated leagues in Division I, and lacks the athleticism or size to hang with a Big 12 roster. The Cardinals were sub-.500 last season and ranked outside the top 300 nationally in defensive efficiency. Given TCU’s tempo, depth, and recent form, this matchup sets up as another opportunity for a comfortable double-digit win — making the -17.5 spread a well-supported position backed by both data and matchup disparity.
TCU -17.5 at -110 on Hard Rock grades out as a strong +EV bet (+5.8%), backed by clear market inefficiencies across sharp books. The consensus from top-tier oddsmakers like Pinnacle (-141), Bovada (-145), and NoVig (-147) suggests the true price for this spread should be around -124 fair value, meaning Hard Rock’s current line is undervalued by more than a full tier of pricing. That discrepancy translates to an edge of roughly 5–6% in expected value — significant for a spread market this early in the season. The sharps have already shaded heavily toward TCU, signaling confidence in the Horned Frogs’ ability to dominate against an inferior Lamar squad. With market movement pointing toward a tightening line, bettors like us grabbing TCU -17.5 at -110 are locking in a rare piece of positive equity before the odds correct.
Bet 3: Sam Reinhart Over 2.5 Shots On Goal
Book: BookMaker
Odds: -109 (Can take up -114)
Sam Reinhart over 2.5 shots on goal looks like a sharp play tonight given both his consistency and offensive volume. Reinhart has recorded 3 or more shots in 9 games already this season, averaging just over 3.0 shots per game — comfortably above the posted line. He’s been heavily involved on the Panthers’ top line and first power-play unit, which has boosted his shot share and time on ice, currently sitting near 20 minutes per game. His shot attempts per 60 are also among the highest on the team, and he’s averaging over 5 total shot attempts per game, meaning he’s generating steady puck volume toward the net. Facing a defense that allows a high rate of shots to top-line skaters further strengthens the case. With both role-based opportunity and data-driven consistency on his side, Reinhart’s over 2.5 SOG stands out as a well-supported prop.
Sam Reinhart over 2.5 shots on goal at -109 (BetMGM) presents a small but meaningful +EV edge of 2.1%, driven by sharp market discrepancies. Across top books, Pinnacle (-136), PointsBet (-135), and Caesars (-127) all price this same prop shorter, implying a fair value of -114. That means BetMGM’s current line is mispriced relative to the most efficient markets — a clear indicator of positive expected value. The +EV rating reflects that the market expects Reinhart to go over this number more often than the odds suggest, especially given his 9 games with 3+ shots this season and heavy usage on Florida’s top line and power play. With sharp consensus leaning toward the over and a fair value edge of 5 cents, this prop stands out as a smart, data-backed wager before the line tightens.
Bet 4: Collin Gillespie Under 4.5 Assists
Book: BetMGM
Odds: +105 (Can take up to -118)
Collin Gillespie under 4.5 assists is a sharp look given his recent trends and usage. He’s gone under this line in five games already this season, and his assist opportunities have been limited by both team context and role consistency. Gillespie often plays off the ball alongside higher-usage guards, which caps his assist upside, and he’s averaging fewer than 6 potential assists per game — not enough to reliably clear a 4.5 line. His assist percentage also trails the team’s primary facilitators, and his minutes have fluctuated based on matchup and shooting performance. With a reduced playmaking role and a clear historical lean toward the under, this line looks inflated relative to his actual distribution volume, making the under 4.5 assists a well-supported play backed by data and situational context.
Collin Gillespie under 4.5 assists at +105 (MGM) stands out as a strong +EV play (+11.0%) with clear market inefficiency across sharp books. Top sportsbooks like PointsBet (-145), Caesars (-136), and FanDuel (-128) all have this prop priced significantly shorter, implying a fair value of -118. That means the +105 line offers over a 25-cent discrepancy compared to the sharp consensus — a strong indicator of mispricing. Gillespie has also gone under this number in five games already this season, supporting the data-based case for the under. With the sharp side heavily tilted toward the under and market prices suggesting the true odds are far worse than +105, this bet provides a clear edge in expected value that should be capitalized on before the line moves.
Bet 5: Hachimura Over 4.5 / Under 4.5 Rebounds
Books: DraftKings / Bet365
Odds: +185 / -140
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Hachimura Over 4.5 rebounds on Hard Rock at +155 odds for $83.29 If this side hits you win $212.
Let's say you take Hachimura Under 4.5 rebounds on NoVig at -122 odds for $116.71 If this side hits you win $212.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $212
No matter the result you make at least $12.
