Happy Wednesday! Yesterday's bets went 3/4, Clowney turned into Rodman and grabbed all the rebounds sadly. Thankfully we got another stacked slate tonight. 12 NBA Games, 4 NHL Games, 3 CFB Games, and 54 College basketball games. Let's try and go 4/4 on the sports betting picks tonight.
Bet 1: Giddey Over 8.5 Rebounds
Book: BetMGM
Odds: +100 (Can take up to -113)
He’s averaging 9.6 rebounds per game so far this season, showing strong consistency on the glass. He’s already cleared that 8.5‐board mark in at least five games this year—highlighted by big totals of 15, 11, and 13 rebounds. Adding to that, the Chicago Bulls are pulling down just under 46.7 rebounds per game as a team this season. With Giddey’s usage (34.1 mins per game) and the team’s moderate rebounding rate, Giddey is positioned as one of the more reliable rebounders on his squad. Given his role, minutes and historical ability to hit high rebound totals, the over 8.5 is backed by both volume and context.
Josh Giddey Over 8.5 rebounds (+100) shows clear positive expected value at +5.9% EV, making it a sharp-backed wager. The fair value is set at -113, meaning sportsbooks and models project this line should be priced shorter than even money. Meanwhile, sharp books like FanDuel (-122), BookMaker (-129), and DraftKings (-135) are all heavily juiced toward the over, signaling strong market agreement that this number is mispriced. Getting +100 here offers solid line value and upside, as you’re effectively grabbing the better side of a consensus line that’s expected to close shorter across major books.
Bet 2: Brandon Hagel Over 0.5 Points
Book: UniBet
Odds: -143 (Can take up to -167)
Forward Brandon Hagel has quietly been one of Tampa Bay’s most consistent producers of late, recording a point in 4 of his last 5 games and totaling 7 points in that stretch. He’s averaging over 18 minutes of ice time per game, often skating alongside Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point — prime exposure to one of the NHL’s most potent top lines. Hagel has also registered multiple shots on goal in six of his last seven games, signaling strong offensive involvement. With Tampa’s power play ranking top-10 in efficiency and Hagel’s role on the second unit, his point potential only increases. At Over 0.5 points, this prop carries strong value given his recent form, usage, and offensive metrics, making it a solid +EV betting angle supported by both data and momentum.
This +EV bet on Brandon Hagel to record over 0.5 points offers a 6.2% expected value, meaning the odds from Unibet (-143) are significantly better than the market consensus. Sharp books like Pinnacle (-210), BetMGM (-186), and DraftKings (-185) imply a much higher probability of Hagel recording a point, giving this line a fair value of -167. That discrepancy between Unibet’s price and the sharper market creates a profitable edge over time — you’re effectively getting a player prop at a discount compared to the most accurate odds in the market.
Bet 3: Northern Illinois Under 27.5 Points
Book: Bet365
Odds: +110 (Can take up to +100)
Northern Illinois’ under 27.5 total points is one of the more consistent trends this season — they’ve failed to clear that mark in all 9 games so far. The Huskies average just 19.6 points per game, ranking near the bottom nationally in scoring offense. Their yards per play (4.8) and red-zone efficiency (under 70%) further highlight their struggles converting drives into points. Even at home, NIU has averaged only 20.3 points, while their opponents have held them to under 24 points in four straight. Given this lack of offensive efficiency and no prior instance of surpassing 27.5, the under continues to be a data-backed and high-confidence position for bettors
This Northern Illinois Under 27.5 team total is a strong +EV play with 4.9% expected value, thanks to the generous +110 line at Bet365. Sharp sportsbooks like BetOnline (-105), FanDuel (-115), and Pinnacle (-110) all have this line priced much shorter, suggesting a true fair value of +100. That gap indicates Bet365 is offering better odds than the most efficient markets, giving bettors a clear statistical edge. When sharp books align on a number and a recreational book drifts higher, it’s often a sign of exploitable value — exactly what this +EV edge represents.
Bet 4: Houston 17.5 Spread
Book: Bovada
Odds: +105 (Can take up to -101)
Backing Houston -17.5 against Oakland comes with strong statistical and situational support. The Cougars enter as the #1 team in the nation, boasting one of the most efficient defenses in college basketball — allowing under 55 points per game and ranking top-5 nationally in defensive efficiency last season. Oakland, on the other hand, was completely outmatched in its opener, losing to Michigan by 43 points (121–78), and now faces an even tougher test. The Golden Grizzlies shot just 38% from the field in that loss while surrendering nearly 60% shooting on defense, highlighting major mismatches in size and athleticism. With Houston’s depth, defensive intensity, and proven ability to blow out inferior teams, laying the -17.5 looks like a high-EV play against a clear overmatched opponent.
This Houston -17.5 first-half spread presents a solid 3.0% expected value with Bovada offering +105, a clear outlier compared to sharper markets. Books like FanDuel (-120), BookMaker (-108), and DraftKings (-110) all price this line much shorter, pointing to a fair value of -101. That means BetRivers is essentially overpaying for the same position, giving bettors a profitable long-term edge. When sharp books agree on a number and a recreational book drifts this far, it’s a textbook case of line value — a true +EV opportunity backed by market inefficiency.
Bet 5: Kevin Durant Over 4.5 / Under 4.5 Rebounds
Books: Bovada / Bet365
Odds: +110 / +125
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Kevin Durant Over 4.5 Rebounds on Bovada at +110 odds for $103.45. If this side hits you win $217.
Let's say you take Kevin Durant Under 4.5 Rebounds on Bet365 at +125 odds for $96.55. If this side hits you win $217.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $217
No matter the result you make at least $17.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs
