We made it to Friday! A massive night of sports is on deck — 76 CBB games, 11 NBA matchups, 4 NHL games, and 3 CFB showdowns. Plenty of action and plenty of edges to find. Let’s dive into the best sports betting picks, sharp insights, and +EV spots for tonight’s slate.
Bet 1: Kentucky -19.5 Spread 1st Half
Book: Hard Rock
Odds: +105 (Can take up to +100)
With the Kentucky Wildcats opening the season with a commanding 77-51 win and now facing the Valparaiso Beacons (a team that ranked near the bottom nationally in first-half offense at just 33.8 points per game last season), the case for taking Kentucky –19.5 in the first half grows strong: Kentucky enters as a massive 33+-point favorite in full-game odds and Valparaiso has little road experience and offensive efficiency to hang with a high-powered Kentucky squad at home. Given that Kentucky has consistently jumped to large leads in non-conference home games (including recent double-digit first-half advantages) and Valpo lacks the firepower to keep pace early, backing Kentucky to cover half the spread by halftime is a compelling play.
This +EV play on Kentucky -19.5 (1H) offers clear value at +105, with a 2.4% expected value edge based on the market’s fair price of +100. Sharp books like Pinnacle, BetOnline, and DraftKings are all pricing this line between -108 and -115, signaling strong market consensus that Kentucky should dominate early. The fact that you can still grab +105 means you’re getting an off-market number — a key signal of positive EV. When sharp books are shaded toward Kentucky and you’re catching better odds than the fair value, it’s a bet with long-term profitability. Add in the mismatch — Kentucky’s elite first-half tempo and Valparaiso’s bottom-tier efficiency — and this becomes a strong +EV opportunity backed by both math and matchup.
Bet 2: Wembanyama Over 3.5 Blocks
Book: Bet365
Odds: -115 (Can take up to -131)
Backing Victor Wembanyama over 3.5 blocks tonight is a sharp play rooted in both form and opportunity. The Spurs’ rookie phenom has already cleared this line in four games this season, including a jaw-dropping 9-block performance that showcased his generational rim protection. He’s averaging 4.7 blocks per game, leading the NBA by a wide margin, and ranks near the top in both block rate and contested shots per minute. Wembanyama’s length and timing make him a nightmare for opponents attacking the paint, and he’s facing a team that ranks among the league leaders in shots attempted within five feet — the perfect setup for another high-block outing. Given his current pace and matchup tendencies, the over on 3.5 blocks carries strong statistical value and aligns with his early-season dominance.
Victor Wembanyama over 3.5 blocks (-115) is a clear +EV play, carrying a 6.2% edge based on market comparison. The fair value price for this prop sits around -131, meaning the -115 line offers a solid cushion against sharp consensus odds. Top sharp books — including FanDuel (-158), NoVig (-149), and Bovada (-170) — all have this line heavily juiced toward the over, indicating strong market confidence that Wembanyama’s block total clears 3.5 more often than the implied probability of 53.5% at -115. Essentially, you’re getting a number the sharpest operators are already pricing 15–20 cents higher, translating to meaningful long-term value. When sharp consensus aligns this tightly and the EV rating exceeds 5%, it’s the kind of inefficiency that professional bettors target night after night.
Matthew Schaefer over 2.5 shots on goal (+115) qualifies as a +EV (positive expected value) play with a calculated 5.3% edge, based on sharp market comparison. The consensus fair value price sits around +104, meaning the +115 line offers meaningful value relative to the true odds implied by sharper sportsbooks like Pinnacle (-109), FanDuel (-110), and NorthStar (-107). Essentially, sportsbooks with the most efficient markets are pricing this prop closer to a 51–52% probability, while your +115 line implies only about a 46.5% chance — creating a long-term profitable discrepancy. When sharp books and model-based pricing converge below +110, and you can grab +115, that’s the exact type of inefficiency professional bettors target.
Bet 4: Tulane / Memphis Under 55 Total Points
Book: UniBet
Odds: -112 (Can take up to -116)
The total opened at 55.5 points, and early movement down to 54.5 despite heavy public action on the over suggests clear sharp money backing the under. Memphis’ offense has been productive, but they’ve relied on long, methodical drives — ranking near the bottom of the AAC in tempo and averaging under 67 plays per game. Tulane, meanwhile, has struggled to find consistency offensively, posting just 25.9 points per game and ranking in the middle of the pack in yards per play. Defensively, the Green Wave remain sound, allowing just 20.1 points per game, which should help slow down a Memphis team that prefers to control pace rather than push it. With both teams leaning on the run and capable of extended possessions, the market move and matchup metrics both point toward a lower-scoring affair — making the Under 55 a sharp, data-backed positions.
The Under 55 total points (-112) in the Tulane vs. Memphis matchup grades out as a +EV bet with a 1.8% edge, supported by sharp market consensus. The fair value line for this total sits around -116, meaning the current -112 price provides positive long-term expectation compared to sharper books like Pinnacle (-131), Bookmaker (-135), and BetMGM (-127). These sharper markets, which typically shape college football totals, are already leaning heavily toward the under — a strong signal that the true probability is higher than the implied 52.8% at -112. Even a small EV edge like 1.8% compounds over volume, and with multiple respected books pricing this several cents higher, the under offers a mathematically sound position backed by market inefficiency rather than public sentiment.
Bet 5: Evans Over 12.5 / Under 12.5 Points
Books: ProphetX / Hard Rock
Odds: +136 / +100
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Evans Over 12.5 on ProphetX at +136 odds for $95 If this side hits you win $216.
Let's say you take Evans Under 12.5 on ProphetX at +100 odds for $105 If this side hits you win $216.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $216
No matter the result you make at least $16.