Happy Thursday! We have Thursday Night Football tonight, Broncos vs Raiders. To go with TNF, we have 44 college basketball games, a single NBA game, and 9 NHL games. Let's jump right into the sports betting picks for tonight, let's go!
Bet 1: Dobbins Over 0.5 Rushing Touchdowns
Book: PointsBet
Odds: +100 (Can take up to -106)
JK Dobbins over 0.5 touchdowns is a solid look given his current role in the Broncos’ offense and his production so far this season. Dobbins has 4 touchdowns on the year, showing consistent red-zone involvement since returning from injury. He’s averaging nearly 15 touches per game over his last three outings and has seen a steady increase in goal-line carries. The matchup against the Raiders’ defense is also highly favorable — Las Vegas ranks bottom five in rushing yards allowed per game (133.6) and has surrendered 10 rushing touchdowns through just eight weeks. With Denver leaning heavily on the ground game near the goal line, Dobbins has a strong chance to find the end zone again.
JK Dobbins anytime touchdown (+100) against the Raiders shows a clear positive expected value (+EV) of 3.0%, making it a sharp betting opportunity. The fair value line sits at -106, implying true odds closer to a 51.5% chance of scoring — yet sportsbooks like PointsBet are still offering even money (+100), creating measurable value. Sharper books such as ProphetX (-107), Circa (-120), and Pinnacle (-125) are all pricing this prop shorter, signaling respected market confidence in Dobbins to find the end zone. With Denver leaning on their run game and Las Vegas ranking near the bottom in rushing defense, this +EV edge suggests the current market undervalues Dobbins’ scoring probability.
Bet 2: Jackson State vs Louisville Under 165 Total Points
Book: Bet365
Odds: +120 (Can take up to -111)
Jackson State comes into this matchup having scored only 55 points in their opener (a heavy loss at Illinois Fighting Illini, 113-55) and showing major offensive and rebounding issues. Meanwhile Louisville opened with a dominant performance, putting up over 100 points (104-45) and showcasing elite defensive control (forcing 25 turnovers, holding their opponent to under 23 % shooting). Jackson State’s offense looks vulnerable against a Louisville squad that this season already ranks among the more efficient defensive units, limiting big chunks of yardage and scoring. Considering Jackson State’s low scoring output in their opener, the steep step-up in competition, and Louisville’s ability to control tempo and defend at a high level, the projection leans heavily toward a lower total than 165.
The Under 165 in Jackson State vs. Louisville shows strong +EV value at +120 on Bet365, with a calculated 15.5% edge based on market inefficiencies. Sharp books like Bookmaker (-135), Pinnacle (-135), and Circa (-110) are all heavily shaded toward the under, indicating sharp money is backing a lower-scoring game. With a fair value line of -111, you’re getting significant closing line value at +120 — a massive price discrepancy that implies inefficient odds from Bet365. Add in Jackson State’s weak offensive showing in their opener (just 55 points scored) and Louisville’s defensive efficiency, and this under not only aligns with sharp action but also projects as a statistically sound, high-EV play.
Bet 3: Devin Booker Over 11.5 RB + AST
Book: BetMGM
Odds: +110 (Can take up to +106)
Booker has been consistently operating well above that mark lately — across his last five games he’s averaged about 8.4 assists and 4.0 rebounds, combining for roughly 12.4 assists + rebounds per game. In specific matchups, he produced lines like 13 assists and 2 rebounds vs. the San Antonio Spurs and 9 assists and 5 rebounds vs. the Utah Jazz. Even though his rebounds (4.0) are modest, his assist numbers are hitting elite levels — paired with his role as the primary playmaker and scorer for the Phoenix Suns, the conditions are ripe for him to clear this 11.5 mark. Moreover, given his recent form and primary ball-handling role driving the offense, betting the over makes logical sense as he’s already surpassed this threshold in 3 of his last 5 games.
Devin Booker over 11.5 rebounds + assists at +110 on Bet365 offers +EV value (1.9%), with a fair value line of +106 based on market consensus. Sharp books like Bovada (-110), DraftKings (-106), and PointsBet (-115) are all pricing this prop shorter, signaling that sharper action leans toward the over. This line mispricing gives bettors a small but positive expected return. Statistically, Booker has cleared this number in 3 of his last 5 games, averaging around 12.4 RA over that span while serving as Phoenix’s main facilitator. The market edge combined with his consistent production makes this a slight but meaningful +EV position for bettors looking for incremental long-term value.
Bet 4: Tage Thompson Over 3.5 Shots On Goal
Book: NoVig
Odds: +106 (Can take up to -106)
Tage Thompson has been highly active offensively, consistently generating volume for Buffalo’s top line. He’s covered 3.5 shots on goal in 4 of his last 5 games, averaging over 4.2 shots per game in that stretch. Thompson ranks among the team leaders in both shot attempts and individual expected goals, and his ice time continues to hover around 20 minutes per night, ensuring steady opportunity. Facing a defense that allows a high number of shots to opposing top forwards, this sets up well for Thompson’s heavy shooting role on the power play and even strength. Given his recent form and offensive usage, the over 3.5 SOG looks well-supported by both volume and matchup data.
Tage Thompson over 3.5 shots on goal at +106 offers a clear +EV edge of 5.8%, driven by market discrepancies across sharper books. Books like Bovada (-115), DraftKings (-125), and Pinnacle (-124) are all heavily juiced toward the over, indicating sharp money expects high shot volume. With a fair value line of -106, NoVig is offering a mispriced number that gives bettors a positive expected return. Thompson has also hit this line in 4 of his last 5 games, averaging over 4 shots per contest while leading Buffalo in individual shot attempts. The combination of strong recent form, heavy offensive usage, and favorable market pricing makes this a +EV play worth targeting.
Bet 5: Jackson State +20.5 / Louisville -20.5
Books: FanDuel / Bet365
Odds: +154 / -110
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Jackson State on FanDuel at +154 odds for $85.82 If this side hits you win $217.
Let's say you take Louisvile on Bet365 at -110 odds for $114.18 If this side hits you win $217.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $217
No matter the result you make at least $17.