Happy Tuesday! We have a full slate of games tonight. CBB is back and in full swing, 6 NBA games, 10 NHL games, and 9 Champions Leagues game. I can't wait any longer let's get right into the sports betting picks for today!
Bet 1: San Diego State -26.5 Spread
Book: Hard Rock
Odds: +115 (Can take up to +106)
San Diego State -26.5 looks like the right side tonight against Long Beach State, and the numbers back it up. The Aztecs are coming off a 21-10 season where they held opponents to just 64.6 points per game — one of the stingiest defenses in the country. They return a veteran core that thrives on physicality and defensive pressure, especially at home where they’ve covered big spreads consistently over the last two seasons. On the other hand, Long Beach State went just 7-25 last year and allowed over 74 points per game, struggling to generate any consistent offense or defensive stops. They also enter the year with a new coaching staff and multiple roster changes, a tough recipe for early-season success against a disciplined, experienced SDSU squad. With the Aztecs’ size, depth, and tempo control, this has all the makings of a game that could get out of hand early — making the -26.5 look more than justified.
San Diego State -26.5 is showing clear +EV value tonight, sitting at +115 while the fair value price is projected around +106 — giving this play an estimated 4.4% edge. The sharpest books in the market, including Bookmaker (-110) and DraftKings (-102), are already pricing this line tighter, signaling strong market confidence in the Aztecs to cover. Anytime you’re getting a better number than the sharpest lines, it’s an indicator of value, especially when the edge exceeds 4%. With San Diego State’s elite defense and home dominance factored in, this isn’t just a strong basketball side — it’s a mathematically sound wager supported by line discrepancy and EV modeling, making it a clear +EV play at +115
Bet 2: Jalen Suggs Over 2.5 Assists
Book: PointsBet
Odds: -125 (Can take up to -145
Jalen Suggs over 2.5 assists is a strong look tonight given his recent form and growing role in Orlando’s offense. He’s cleared this line in four straight games and is averaging 4.4 assists per game on the season, showing consistent playmaking even in games where he isn’t scoring heavily. Suggs has been more active initiating sets and creating off penetration, leading to easy looks for teammates in transition and off kick-outs. His assist opportunities have climbed to over 7 per game during this stretch, and with his minutes firmly in the 28–32 range, the volume is there. Against a defense that struggles to contain guard penetration, this number feels a bit short — making the over 2.5 assists a solid value play backed by both usage trends and recent production.
Jalen Suggs over 2.5 assists is showing strong +EV value tonight with a 6.5% edge, making it a sharp play according to market projections. The line sits at -125 on PointsBet, while the fair value is closer to -145, indicating bettors are getting a meaningful discount versus the true odds. Sharp books like Bovada (-200), DraftKings (-167), and ESPNBet (-180) are all heavily juiced to the over, confirming that professional money is leaning in the same direction. Anytime you can grab a prop priced 20+ cents better than the sharpest markets, it’s a sign of positive expected value. Combine that with Suggs clearing this line in four straight games, and the over 2.5 assists isn’t just a good basketball bet — it’s a mathematically sound, market-backed +EV opportunity.
Bet 3: Leon Draisaitl Over 1.5 Points
Book: UniBet
Odds: +155 (Can take up to +143)
Leon Draisaitl over 1.5 points is a strong play tonight against the Stars, backed by both recent form and consistent elite production. The Oilers’ superstar has recorded 2 or more points in five games already this season, showing that when he’s rolling, he can pile up points quickly. He’s averaging 1.2 points per game through 13 contests, and his chemistry with Connor McDavid on the top power-play unit — one of the league’s most efficient — continues to drive his offensive output. Draisaitl has also found success against Dallas in past matchups, posting multiple multi-point games versus them over the last few seasons. With heavy minutes, top-line exposure, and plenty of special teams opportunity, this number feels short for a player with his ceiling. Given his proven ability to produce in bunches, taking the over 1.5 points offers strong upside backed by stats and recent consistency.
Leon Draisaitl over 1.5 points is popping as a clear +EV play tonight, showing a 4.8% edge with Unibet offering +155 while the fair value sits around +143. That’s meaningful value compared to sharp books like Pinnacle (+125), FanDuel (+138), and DraftKings (+120), which are all pricing this line much shorter — indicating the market’s confidence in Draisaitl’s upside. Anytime you can grab a number that’s 15–30 cents better than the sharpest operators, you’re locking in long-term expected value. Add in that Draisaitl has recorded 2+ points in five games already this season and continues to thrive on Edmonton’s lethal top power-play unit, and this play combines both statistical backing and pricing inefficiency — making the over 1.5 points a sharp, +EV target for tonight.
Bet 4: As Monaco Bodo/Glimt Over 5.5 Total Corners 2nd Half
Book: Caesars
Odds: +135 (Can take up to +127)
Taking the over 5.5 total corners in the 2nd half of the AS Monaco vs. Bodø/Glimt match makes a lot of sense based on both team profiles and recent match data. Bodø/Glimt average over 6 corners per match this season and tend to push harder in the second half, where their games average around 5.3 total corners after halftime alone. Monaco are similar, generating 6+ corners per game themselves and ranking among the top Ligue 1 sides in attacking third possession. Both clubs play with aggressive, width-driven styles — Monaco through their pacey wingers and Bodø/Glimt through sustained second-half pressure and high shot volume. In competitive European fixtures like this, the intensity typically rises late, leading to more attacks, blocked shots, and deflections — all key drivers for corner volume. With that in mind, the over 5.5 second-half corners looks like a strong statistical and game-flow-driven wager.
The over 5.5 total corners in the 2nd half of AS Monaco vs. Bodø/Glimt is showing clear +EV value with a 3.4% edge, priced at +135 while the fair value sits around +127. That’s a meaningful gap when compared to sharp books like DraftKings (+100), ESPNBet (+105), and BetMGM(+120), all pricing the same market much shorter. This indicates that sharper money expects more corner activity in the second half than the current line implies. When you’re grabbing a price that’s 10–30 cents better than the sharpest operators, you’re betting with positive expectation over the long run. Add in the natural uptick in late-game pace and pressure — especially in competitive European matches — and this +135 number on over 5.5 corners holds legitimate +EV upside.
Bet 5: Robert Morris vs Iowa Hawkeyes Over 135.5 / Under 135.5 Points
Books: BetOnline / Bet365
Odds: -110 / +210
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Over 135.5 Total Points on BetOnline at -110 odds for $123.77 If this side hits you win $236.
Let's say you take Under 135.5 Total Points on Bet365 at +210 odds for $76.23 If this side hits you win $236.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $236
No matter the result you make at least $36.