Happy Monday and happy November! We have a sports filled day as we have Monday Night Football, Cardinals vs Cowboys. 9 NBA games, and 4 NHL games to end off the night. Let's jump directly into sports betting picks for tonight.
Bet 1: Jake Ferguson Over 4.5 Receptions
Book: EPick
Odds: -118 (Can take up to -150)
Coming into this matchup, it’s hard to ignore how Jake Ferguson has evolved into one of Dak Prescott’s most reliable weapons. He’s gone over 4.5 receptions in 6 of 8 games this season and has seen consistent volume, averaging 6.3 targets per game with a 71% catch rate. Ferguson’s usage in short-yardage and third-down situations makes him a high-floor option, especially against an Arizona defense that’s struggled to contain tight ends — ranking 26th in receptions allowed to the position. With the Cowboys’ offense relying heavily on timing routes and Prescott’s growing trust in Ferguson, the over 4.5 receptions looks like a strong play backed by both volume trends and a favorable matchup.
Jake Ferguson’s Over 4.5 Receptions prop stands out as a clear +EV play with a 10.8% expected value according to market analysis. While the line is available at -118, sharper books such as Circa, Pinnacle, and BookMaker have this number priced much higher in the -170 to -180 range, indicating strong professional backing on the over. The fair value sits around -150, creating significant closing line value for bettors locking in early. Ferguson’s high target share and consistent volume make this prop statistically sound, but the real edge lies in the price disparity—backing the over here captures true market inefficiency, giving bettors a strong +EV position.
Bet 2: Naz Reid Under 5.5 Rebounds
Book: Bet365
Odds: +120 (Can take up to -101)
Heading into this matchup, betting the over on Naz Reid’s 5.5 rebounds looks far from sound. Despite averaging around 6.0 rebounds per game last season, Reid has only covered the 5.5 mark in 2 of his last 6 games — a clear red flag in his one-line production. On top of that, he’s facing a tough rebounding group in the Brooklyn Nets, a team known to protect the glass well and limit second-chance opportunities for opposing bigs. With volume questions and a stronger rebound-resistance matchup, this under feels like the sharp play.
Naz Reid’s Under 5.5 Rebounds prop grades out as a strong +EV play at +120, carrying an expected value of 10.7% according to market projections. Sharper books like Pinnacle, Circa, and BetMGM have this line priced in the -105 to -115 range, signaling that the true fair value sits around -101 — a major pricing edge versus the public market. This discrepancy shows that sharp bettors and algorithms expect regression on Reid’s rebounding numbers, especially against a Nets squad that ranks among the better rebounding teams in the league. With the books implying shorter odds on the under, taking it at +120 offers excellent closing line value and a clear mathematical advantage.
Bet 3: Brady Skjei Under 0.5 Points
Book: UniBet
Odds: -159 (Can take up to -169)
Brady Skjei’s Under 0.5 Points prop is showing solid +EV value at 2.3%, priced at -159 on Unibet while sharp books like Pinnacle, FanDuel, and DraftKings have this line much shorter between -190 and -204. The fair value for this play sits around -169, meaning bettors are getting a better price than the true market consensus. This indicates that sharp money and advanced models expect Skjei to remain off the scoresheet more often than the odds imply. With limited offensive production this season and a tough defensive matchup, this slight but consistent edge makes it a profitable long-term +EV wager.
Bet 4: Stewart Over 8.5 / Under 7.5 Points
Books: Bovada / Bet365
Odds: +115 / +310
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Stewart Over 8.5 Points on Bovada at +115 odds for $131.20 If this side hits you win $282.
Let's say you take Stewart Under 8.5 Points on Bet365 at +310 odds for $68.80 If this side hits you win $282.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $282
No matter the result you make at least $82.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
