Happy Wednesday! We have a stacked slate today. 11 NBA Games, 5 NHL Games, 35 College Basketball Games, and a pair of CFB games to end off the night. Let's get right into the sports betting picks for tonight!
Bet 1: Alex Sarr Over 1.5 Blocks
Book: Bet365
Odds: +145 (Can take up to +114)
Sarr has shown a strong and consistent shot-blocking presence to start the season — he’s averaging about 2.2 blocks per game over his last six outings with the Washington Wizards, well above the 1.5 mark and demonstrating that this isn’t a fluke. At 7-foot with a near 7-foot-4 wingspan, his physical tools alone give him elite rim-protection upside, something advanced metrics confirm (he entered one recent game ranked in the 81st percentile among big men for block percentage). Combine his size, minutes (around 27 per game) and the fact he’s already clearing the 2-block barrier multiple games in a row, and the proposition of “Sarr over 1.5 blocks” carries real statistical weight rather than being wishful thinking.
This Alex Sarr Over 1.5 Blocks (+145) line on Bet365 offers clear positive expected value (+EV). With sharp books like DraftKings and FanDuel pricing the same prop around +100 to -108, the true fair value is estimated at +114, creating a 14.5% EV edge. That’s a significant discrepancy — you’re effectively getting better odds than what the sharpest sportsbooks in the market are implying. Sarr has also gone over this number in six straight games, averaging more than two blocks per contest, reinforcing that the statistical probability of this hitting is higher than what Bet365’s line suggests. In short, this is a mathematically sound, market-based +EV bet that combines strong player trends with mispriced odds.
Bet 2: Dalibor Dvorsky Over 0.5 Points
Book: Fanatics
Odds: +160 (Can take up to +152)
The rookie forward just netted his first NHL goal in his last outing — a confident power-play strike that helped fuel a Blues victory — and he’s clearly settling into the pace of the league. Dvorsky’s underlying numbers show promise too: he logged over 15 minutes of ice time in that game and is now seeing more shifts with the second power-play unit, giving him increased offensive exposure. Coming off a 45-point AHL season (in 61 games), his scoring ability isn’t in question — it’s about converting chances at the top level, and he’s beginning to do just that. With rising confidence, expanded ice time, and momentum from that recent goal, the over 0.5 points prop carries real statistical and situational value.
This Dalibor Dvorsky Over 0.5 Points (+160) line on Fanatics presents a clear +EV opportunity based on market discrepancies. Sharp sportsbooks such as DraftKings (+130), NoVig (+142), and Pinnacle (+118) all have this prop priced shorter, implying a fair value around +152. That creates a 3.1% expected value edge, meaning the probability of Dvorsky recording at least one point is slightly higher than Fanatics’ odds suggest. He’s also coming off a game where he found the back of the net, signaling growing confidence and offensive involvement. When the betting market undervalues a player trending upward and sharper books are tighter on the under, it’s a solid sign of positive market value — and this play fits that profile perfectly.
Bet 3: New Mexico Lobos -22.5 Spread
Book: Hard Rock
Odds: +105 (Can take up to -102)
New Mexico finished 27-8 last season and posted a dominant 16-1 record at home, averaging 17.8 points off turnovers, 11.4 second-chance points and 18.5 bench points per game. Their opponent, East Texas A&M Lions, meanwhile, went just 5-26 overall and a dismal 1-16 on the road last year — averaging only 64.4 points per game and weak numbers in key areas such as scoring in the paint (27.3) and fast break points (10.5). This is a textbook example of a huge drop-off in competition: New Mexico’s athleticism, depth and home-court dominance set up perfectly for them to not just win, but win big — making the 22.5-point spread look well within reach.
This New Mexico -22.5 (+105) line on Hard Rock stands out as a +EV opportunity with a 3.5% edge based on market comparison. Sharp books like BetOnline (-115), DraftKings (-112), and BetRivers (-110) all price the same spread significantly shorter, implying a fair value of -102. That pricing gap indicates you’re getting superior odds on a team projected to dominate. New Mexico’s recent track record backs it up — they were 16-1 at home last season and rank among the most efficient offenses in the Mountain West. Meanwhile, East Texas A&M is a major downgrade in competition, coming off a 5-win season with one of the lowest offensive efficiencies in the country. When sharp books are aligned on a number and one outlier offers plus money, it’s a clear signal of market value — making this a strong +EV play.
Bet 4: Northern Illinois Over 13.5 Team Points
Book: Bet365
Odds: +110 (Can take up to +101)
Northern Illinois has already cleared this threshold in three games this season, demonstrating the offense is capable of hitting 14+ points when the matchup allows. Their opponent, Toledo Rockets, is widely regarded as one of the best defenses in the country—ranking 3rd in total defense (≈ 236 yards allowed), 4th in passing defense (≈ 143 yards allowed), and 11th in scoring defense (≈ 16 points allowed) this year. Given that elite defensive showing, the fact NIU has already hit the over implies their offensive upside may be undervalued in this line. If NIU can capitalize on favorable situations and exploit any lapses, the 13.5-point mark is within realistic reach, making this a statistically supported value play.
This Northern Illinois Over 13.5 Team Points (+110) line on Bet365 offers strong +EV value at 4.4%, backed by clear market discrepancies. Sharp books like FanDuel (-114), Bovada (-105), and DraftKings (-115) all have this same line priced shorter, indicating a fair value of +101. That means the implied probability at Bet365 is too low — giving bettors a mathematical edge. Northern Illinois has already cleared this number in three games this season, showing the offense is capable of producing even against tougher defenses. Meanwhile, Toledo’s defense has been inconsistent, allowing multiple teams to find success through the air in recent weeks. When the sharper books are all lined up on one side and an outlier offers plus money, it signals real positive expected value — making this a smart market-based play.
Bet 5: Ayton Over 1.5 / Under 1.5 Assists
Books: BetWay / Fanatics
Odds: +160 / -105
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Over 1.5 Assists on BetWay at +160 odds for $85.77 If this side hits you win $223.
Let's say you take Under 1.5 Assists on Fanatics at -105 odds for $114.23 If this side hits you win $223.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $223
No matter the result you make at least $23.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
