Happy Wednesday! We have a stacked slate of games today which includes: 9 NBA Games, 4 NHL Games, 2 CFB games, and of course 50 CBB games. Let's not waste anymore time, let's jump straight into the sports betting picks for all these leagues!
Bet 1: Josh Hart Under 5.5 Rebounds
Book: PointsBet
Odds: -115 (Can take up to -130)
Betting Josh Hart under 5.5 rebounds is a smart play right now: in his last five games, he’s averaging only 5.2 boards per game, putting him right around (and often below) that 5.5-mark. At the same time, the Dallas Mavericks are doing a solid job on the glass — they average 44.6 rebounds per game as a team. That collective board production makes it tougher for Hart to rack up a big individual rebounding night, especially since his recent trends show some regression from what might normally be expected of him.
This bet shows positive expected value because the market consensus from sharper books prices the Under 5.5 assists significantly shorter (around –144 to –166) than the available –115 being offered. When a major group of efficient sportsbooks posts a materially lower price, it signals that the true probability of the under hitting is higher than what the –115 line implies. With a fair value closer to –130, you’re essentially paying a discounted price for an outcome the sharper side of the market believes is more likely than the sportsbook offering –115 suggests. This gap between true odds and available odds is what generates the edge.
Bet 2: Sebastian Aho Over 2.5 Shots On Goal
Book: NoVig
Odds: +105 (Can take up to -106)
Betting Sebastian Aho over 2.5 shots on goal looks solid: he’s cleared that 2.5 line in 4 of his last 6 games, racking up 24 shots across those six contests (an average of 4.0 SOG/game) — a clear bump vs. his season baseline — and that recent volume shows he’s been actively shooting from dangerous areas. Game logs show the uptick (18 shots in his last 5 games plus a 6-shot outing that pushes the six-game total to 24). Meanwhile, his season rate (41 shots through 17 games, ~2.4 SOG/game) is lower, so this hot stretch represents a meaningful increase and gives the over value — if he keeps getting power-play time and high‐danger looks, 2.5 is very reachable.
This bet also shows an edge because the sharper books are pricing the Over 2.5 shots in the –118 to –128 range, indicating they believe the probability of Aho clearing this line is meaningfully higher than what a +105 payout suggests. When a market that’s typically more efficient is leaning heavily toward the over while a slower-moving book is still dealing plus money, you’re getting paid at odds that don’t match the true likelihood of the outcome. With a fair valuation around –106, the discrepancy between the sharp side and the posted number creates a built-in advantage for anyone taking the +105.
Bet 3: Nik McMillian Over 81.5 Receiving Yards
Book: Prime
Odds: +108 (Can take up to +104)
Taking Nik McMillan over 81.5 receiving yards is compelling: he’s already posted 5 games this season with very strong yardage (117, 119, 177, 105, and 122 yards per his game log). His big-play ability is also evident — in his situational stats, he’s racked up 13 receptions of 15+ yards and 6 of 25+ yards already. And he’s getting to go up against Miami (OH)’s vulnerable secondary — their defense is allowing nearly 275 passing yards per game, per their split stats. All signs point to McMillan having strong upside to clear that 81.5-yard line again.
This play carries an edge because the sharper markets are sitting around –114 to –115 on the Over 81.5, which implies the true probability of McMillan clearing this number is stronger than what a +108 line pays out. Any time you can grab a plus-money tag while the more efficient books are pricing the same prop on the favoured side, you’re essentially capitalising on a misalignment in how one sportsbook is valuing the outcome. With a fair price closer to +104, the posted number is simply out of step with the sharper side of the market, giving bettors a small but real advantage.
Bet #4 Stetson Hatters +2.5 Spread
Book: BetOpenly
Odds: +105 (Can take up to -103)
Taking Stetson +2.5 tonight against Howard is appealing, especially since it’s a home game for the Hatters, and they’ve shown strong form in DeLand this season. At Insight Credit Union Arena, Stetson is averaging 75 PPG at home while shooting 47% from the field and hitting 7.1 three-pointers per game. They’ve been competitive in close games, winning 3 of 5 home matchups by 5 points or fewer, showing they can stay with teams like Howard. Meanwhile, Howard has historically struggled on the road, giving Stetson a home-court edge that makes the +2.5 a solid value play tonight.
This match up qualifies as a +EV play because the market is offering a price on Stetson +2.5 at +105 that’s better than what sharper books imply the line should be. The sharper, more efficient sportsbooks are sitting around –110 to –118 on the same side, which signals that their models and bettors with influence see Stetson as the correct position. When you’re able to grab a number at plus money while the most respected books are charging juice on that same spread, you’re purchasing the same outcome at a discount. Add in the fact that the fair value sits at –103, and you’re effectively betting at a price that outperforms the true probability of the event. Consistently taking these kinds of mispriced edges is what turns long-term betting into a profitable strategy.
Bet 5: Towns Over 29.5 / Under 29.5 Points + Assists
Books: DraftKings / PointsBet
Odds: +161 / -115
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Towns Over 29.5 Points + Assists on DraftKings at +161 odds for $83.47. If this side hits you win $217.
Let's say you take Towns Under 29.5 Points + Assists on PointsBet at -115 odds for $116.53. If this side hits you win $217.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $217
No matter the result you make at least $17.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
