Happy Monday! In our last blog our picks went 3/4! Unfortunately Oregon couldn't keep it close at all and ended up getting smoked by Indiana. Let's try and keep the hot streak going but for tonight let's aim for the sweep. On tap for tonight have a Wildcard game between the Steelers and Texans. 6 NBA games, 9 NHL games, and 17 CBB games. Let's not waste anymore time let's jump directly into the sports betting picks for tonight.
Bet #1 Jaylen Warren Over 9.5 Rec Yards
Book: Hard Rock
Odds: -115 (Can take up to -127)
Jaylen Warren has been far more than just a pure runner for the Steelers this season, consistently making an impact as a pass-catcher and clearly outperforming the 9.5 receiving yards line — hitting that mark in 10 of 16 games in 2025, per prop trends and player prop data. Even with defenses keying on Pittsburgh’s ground game, Warren’s 20.8 receiving yards per game average dwarfs the 9.5 threshold, showing he’s frequently involved in early downs and check-downs rather than being relegated to a minimal role. He also had notable recent outputs, such as 5 catches for 33 yards against Baltimore in Week 18, proving he can clear the line even in a tough matchup. With his role cemented as a multi-faceted back in the Steelers offense and a history of clearing this receiving mark, taking Warren OVER 9.5 receiving yards is backed by consistent usage and production rather than variance.
Jaylen Warren Over 9.5 receiving yards grades out as a clear +EV bet based on market disagreement and sharp influence. The best available price of -115 is well above the calculated Fair Value of -127, creating a +4.7% EV edge on this prop. Sharp books are already signaling stronger conviction, with respected markets pricing the Over at -135, -149, and as high as -154, indicating the true probability is meaningfully higher than what the -115 line implies. When multiple sharp books converge well past the offered number, it’s a strong indicator the market is mispriced. With the public-facing book lagging behind sharper consensus pricing, this Over presents a mathematically favorable opportunity backed by both line value and sharp money.
Bet #2 Immanuel Quickley Under 6.5 Assists
Book: Bet365
Odds: +100 (Can take up to -121)
Immanuel Quickley Under 6.5 assists stands out as a strong +EV bet thanks to a major pricing gap between the available odds and the sharp market consensus. The best number available is +100, while the Fair Value sits at -121, creating a sizable +9.5% expected value edge. Sharp sportsbooks are already much lower on this line, with respected books pricing the Under at -131, -137, and -144, signaling that the true probability heavily favors the Under. When sharp money converges this far away from the best available price, it’s a clear indicator the market is misaligned. Locking in +100 on a prop that sharps are consistently dealing well into minus territory provides significant closing line value and makes this a mathematically profitable long-term play.
Bet #3 Detroit Red Wings Over 2.5 Points
Book: NoVig
Odds: -110 (Can take up to -120)
Detroit’s offense has been trending in the right direction lately, making the Red Wings Over 2.5 points a strong bet. Detroit is averaging just over 3 goals per game this season (3.09 G/GP) despite a historically middling offense, and several games this year have shown their ability to produce multiple goals from different lines. They've put up 5 goals vs Vancouver, 4 vs Montreal, and 5 vs Ottawa in recent wins, with key contributors like Alex DeBrincat (23 goals), Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond, and Patrick Kane all driving scoring chances and power-play success. Meanwhile, their opponent’s defense and goaltending tendencies could play into a higher-scoring affair, as Detroit’s depth has shown it can beat teams in a variety of ways—whether it’s a big night from one star or balanced scoring across the lineup.
Detroit Over 2.5 Team Points grades out as a clear +EV angle thanks to strong market support and mispriced odds. While one book is hanging -110, the sharpest books on the board are already sitting -130, -135, and even -150, signaling that respected money believes Detroit clears this number at a high clip. With those prices blended, the Fair Value lands around -120, meaning you’re grabbing a 10-cent edge versus the true probability and locking in an estimated +4.1% EV. Anytime a book lags noticeably behind sharper operators, it’s a sign of actionable value—and with Detroit’s offense trending well and the market pushing upward, taking Over 2.5 before the number fully corrects itself is the +EV play.
Bet #4 UT Rio Grande Valley / Northwestern State Under 145.5 Points
Book: Fanatics
Odds: +100 (Can take up to -104)
Under 145.5 in UT Rio Grande Valley vs. Northwestern State pops as a +EV opportunity thanks to mispriced market value and sharp-book alignment. While you’re getting +100, the sharper, more efficient books are already shaded to the under at -114, -121, and even -125, signaling that respected money expects this game to finish below the posted total. When those prices are blended, the Fair Value projects around -104, meaning you’re betting into a number that implies a better probability than the sportsbook is accounting for—creating roughly +2.1% EV. Anytime public-facing books offer plus money while sharper operators tax the same side, it’s an indication of true edge, and the under is the side with that value here.
Bet #5 Paul George Over 4.5 / Under 4.5 Points 1Q
Books: Bet365 / TheScore
Odds: +180 / -120
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take George Over 4.5 Points 1Q on Bet365 at +180 odds for $79.14. If this side hits you win $221.
Let's say you take George Under 4.5 Points 1Q on TheScore at -120 odds for $120.86. If this side hits you win $221.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $221
No matter the result you make at least $21.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
