Happy Wednesday! In our last blog we went 2/3! Unfortunately the Buffalo Bulls fell to Kent State last night preventing us from the sweep. Still over the last 4 articles we're sitting at about a 75% hit rate which isn't too shabby at all. For the slate today we have 7 NBA games, 60 College Basketball Games, and 4 NHL games. Let's jump right into the sports betting picks for tonight!
Bet #1 Jay Huff Over 9.5 Points
Book: Hard Rock
Odds: +120 (Can take up to +102)
Jay Huff is riding a hot scoring stretch, clearly exceeding expectations and making the 9.5 points line very attainable: over his last five games he’s averaged ~13.8 points, including two 20-point efforts and multiple double-figure scoring nights, showing he’s in rhythm offensively and seeing enough usage to clear this total. On the other side, the Toronto Raptors struggle defensively against opposing bigs, allowing around 8.9 points per game to centers this season and posting a defensive rating north of 110 when matched up with traditional big men — a vulnerability Huff can exploit with his size and shooting. With the Raptors’ interior defense not elite and Huff’s recent production trending up, the matchup sets up perfectly for him to repeatedly surpass 9.5 points and give strong value on this bet.
Jay Huff Over 9.5 points grades out as a clear +EV play, with multiple sharp books signaling this number is mispriced. While Hard Rock is hanging a generous +120, the sharper books — including DK, FanDuel and NoVig — are all sitting between -102 and -104, implying this line should be much shorter. That discrepancy drives a Fair Value of +102, meaning you’re getting 18 cents of edge compared to true price expectation. With an 8.9% EV rating, the market is telling us Huff is more likely to clear this line than the +120 price suggests, making this a value-backed wager supported by smart money and consensus pricing across the industry.
Bet #2 Army +4.5 Spread
Book: Hard Rock
Odds: +105 (Can take up to -104)
Army has shown it can not only compete with, but beat Holy Cross recently, taking both of the last two meetings — including a tight 68-65 win and a 76-71 victory — often in games decided by slim margins, which makes a +4.5 spread realistic and playable. Offensively, the Black Knights are one of the most prolific three-point shooting teams in the Patriot League, ranking top ten nationally in made threes and attempts, and they lead the league in offensive rebounding and assists, indicators of sustained scoring opportunities. Meanwhile, Holy Cross has struggled in conference play and defensively has given up more points than it scores; they’re allowing opponents to stay competitive and are being outscored on average. The recent history between the teams, Army’s ability to stay close even in losses, and the statistical edges in key offensive categories all support +4.5 as a bet with real value.
Army +4.5 grades out as a +EV spot thanks to clear market disagreement. While Hard Rock is offering +105, sharp books like Circa (-115), Pinnacle/CRIS (-112), and Bookmaker (-113) are all pricing the same spread at noticeably juiced numbers, signaling that the true probability is higher than Hard Rock’s payout implies. That gap drives a Fair Value of -104, meaning the market consensus expects this line to be closer to standard juice rather than plus money. With an EV of 4.3%, bettors are getting a meaningful mathematical edge backed by sharper shops shading toward Army covering, making +4.5 a value-backed bet the public books are slow to adjust to.
Bet #3 Thomas Chabot Over 1.5 Shots On Goal
Book: NoVig
Odds: -110 (Can take up to -120)
Thomas Chabot has been a consistent offensive driver from the back end for Ottawa this season, already racking up 15 points through 30 games and playing heavy minutes in all situations, including on the power play. Even beyond scoring, Chabot is a shooter: across his last 10 games he’s put up 22 shots on goal, and in his most recent outings he’s shown the ability to push pucks on net multiple times per contest — including back‑to‑back multi‑shot efforts — which points to a strong chance of clearing the 1.5 SOG line again. His role as a key point producer and shot generator from the point makes him a reliable candidate to continue seeing goal attempts, especially when Ottawa needs offense from the blue line.
The Thomas Chabot Over 1.5 Shots On Goal is a prime example of a +EV wager, currently showing an EV of +4.0%. This line is supported by the sharps, with three sharp accounts backing the play at around -135, signaling professional confidence in Chabot’s ability to exceed 1.5 shots. The fair value for this bet is estimated at -120, meaning the current market odds of -110 offer a small but meaningful edge to bettors. In other words, we’re getting slightly better odds than the bet’s true expected value, which, combined with Chabot’s recent trend of multi-shot games, makes this a compelling pick for value-conscious NHL bettors.
Bet #4 Flagg Over 1.5 / Under 1.5 Steals
Books: ProphetX / Unibet
Odds: +158 / -121
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Flagg Over 1.5 steals on ProphetX at +158 odds for $82.9. If this side hits you win $213.
Let's say you take Flagg Under 1.5 steals on Unibet at -121 odds for $117.1. If this side hits you win $213.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $213
No matter the result you make at least $13.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
