Happy Thursday! The picks yesterday again went 2/3 for a 75% hit rate! That pesky sweep continues to avoid us as unfortunately Army couldn't cover the +4.5 Spread against Holy Cross. Will today be the day we final get that 100% sweep? We have a nice slate of games on deck today for that possibility to happen. We have: 9 NBA games, 49 CBB games, and 10 NHL games. Let's jump right into the sports betting picks for tonight!
Bet #1 Harrison Barnes Over 2.5 Rebounds
Book: Bet365
Odds: -112 (Can take up to -132)
Harrison Barnes Over 2.5 Rebounds is a smart bet because he’s been a consistent rebounder this season, averaging 3.1 boards per game for the Spurs in 2025-26, which already puts him over this line on average and gives him a solid floor to hit it. With the **Giannis situation looming for the Bucks — multiple recent reports indicate he’s dealing with injury concerns and could miss time — there’s a real chance Giannis won’t play or won’t be at full strength, which would open up rebounding opportunities across the board for frontcourt and wing players. Barnes also has a track record of grabbing more rebounds against certain teams (he’s averaged north of his season norm in similar matchups), and with more contested boards available if Giannis is absent, his rebounding role could increase even more, making Over 2.5 a compelling, fact-based prop pick.
Harrison Barnes Over 2.5 Rebounds stands out as a clear +EV opportunity based on market discrepancies and sharp money alignment. The best available price sits at -112 on Bet365, while multiple sharp sportsbooks are already dealing this prop at -161, -154, and -147, a strong indicator that respected bettors have heavily bet this side. Using the sharp consensus, the calculated fair value is -132, meaning you’re getting roughly 20 cents of line value at Bet365, which translates to a +7.7% expected value edge — a significant margin in player props. When sharp books are shaded that aggressively and a softer book lags behind, it’s exactly the type of inefficiency +EV bettors look to exploit, making this a fundamentally sound wager strictly from a pricing and market perspective.
Bet #2 West Georgia -3.5 Spread
Book: NoVig
Odds: +114 (Can take up to +103)
West Georgia has quietly built momentum in ASUN play and given bettors plenty of reasons to back them against the spread. After an up‑and‑down non‑conference slate, the Wolves are now 9‑6 overall and a perfect 3‑0 in Atlantic Sun action, showing they’re clicking at the right time this season. Star forward Shelton Williams‑Dryden is a matchup nightmare, consistently putting up big numbers and multiple double‑doubles, and even earning back‑to‑back ASUN Player of the Week honors thanks to elite scoring and rebounding production. West Georgia’s recent wins include impressive offensive outings, including a convincing 85‑73 victory over North Florida where they controlled the tempo and defensive rebounding. With confidence high and their best players firing, the Wolves present strong value at ‑3.5, especially if they continue to impose their pace and execute at both ends tonight.
The West Georgia -3.5 spread is a textbook +EV opportunity tonight, with sharps clearly leaning on the Wolves at ‑108, ‑106, and even +102 across top sportsbooks, signaling strong market confidence. When compared to the calculated fair value of +103, the current line of +114 offers a clear edge, translating to a 5.6% expected value—a highly attractive margin in betting terms. This means that over the long run, wagers on West Georgia at this line should yield a positive return, as the market is underestimating the Wolves’ chances to cover. With sharps actively backing the spread and the line sitting above fair value, this bet isn’t just about backing a strong team—it’s about exploiting inefficiencies in the market for guaranteed +EV.
Bet #3 Sidney Crosby Over 2.5 Shots On Goal
Book: ProphetX
Odds: +121 (Can take up to +113)
Backing Sidney Crosby Over 2.5 shots on goal makes sharp sense from both a statistical and situational angle. Crosby has been one of Pittsburgh’s primary shot drivers all season, logging 107 shots on goal through 42 games and 24 goals, putting him among his team’s top offensive threats and showing his willingness to fire the puck regularly. Even if his season average sits around ~2.4 SOG per game, recent trends show he’s consistently been above that mark — for example, he took three shots in a 5‑1 win over the Hurricanes and was shooting frequently in other recent contests — suggesting he’s trending toward hitting this Over as his ice time and offensive role remain high. With Crosby leading the Penguins’ attack and remaining involved on the power play and in high‑danger spots, there’s a strong floor to trust he’ll surpass 2.5 shots tonight, especially when he’s getting quality looks and goal opportunities.
The Thomas Chabot Over 1.5 Shots on Goal stands out as a clear +EV opportunity, currently carrying an expected value of +4.0%. This play has attracted sharp action, with three respected betting accounts backing the over at around -135, signaling professional confidence in Chabot’s shot volume. The model’s fair value is priced at -120, while the market is offering it at -110, giving bettors a small but meaningful edge. Getting better odds than the true expected probability — combined with Chabot’s recent run of consistently clearing this line — makes this a smart value bet for disciplined NHL bettors.
Bet #4 Severson Over 1.5 / Under 1.5 Shots On Goal
Books: TheScore / PointsBet
Odds: +135 / +175
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Severson Over 1.5 Shots On Goal on TheScore at +135 odds for $107.84. If this side hits you win $253.
Let's say you take Severson Under 1.5 Shots On Goal on PointsBet at +175 odds for $92.16. If this side hits you win $253.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $253
No matter the result you make at least $53.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
