Happy Tuesday! In our last blog the picks went 3/4 again! Unfortunately the Steelers last night looked absolutely awful so Warren didn't get much receiving work at all. The other 3 picks cashed with no sweat at all. We're now sitting at 6/8 for our last two blogs which puts us at 75%! Not too shabby. Let's get that all elusive sweep today. For the slate tonight we have 7 NBA games, 10 NHL games, and 35 CBB games. Let's hop right into the sports betting picks for tonight!
Bet #1 Bam Adebayo Over 2.5 Assists
Book: Bet365
Odds: -115 (Can take up to -125)
Bam Adebayo is a strong play to go over 2.5 assists because he’s actually averaging 2.6 assists per game this season, showing he naturally clears that mark on average. In his last five games, Adebayo has been assisting at an even higher clip, posting 4, 6, 3, 2, and 4 assists, which works out to about 3.8 assists per game over that span — comfortably above 2.5. That recent uptick suggests he’s more involved in playmaking, especially as Miami looks to get downhill and kick out or find cutters, and his usage with the ball in pick-and-roll actions has led to a boost in assist opportunities. Additionally, across his last 10 games he’s averaging roughly 3.0 assists, further supporting the case that 2.5 is well within reach based on recent form. All of these trends — season average, recent assists totals, and involvement in offense — make a solid statistical argument for backing Bam to exceed 2.5 assists.
Bam Adebayo Over 2.5 Assists at -115 on Bet365 is popping as a clear +EV target, backed by a 4% edge thanks to how the rest of the market is pricing this prop. Sharp books are already shaded heavily toward the over, posting anywhere from -152 to -136, signaling strong odds that Adebayo clears this line. With multiple sharp indicators aligned and consensus pricing well above Bet365, the projection models push a Fair Value of -125, creating the value gap bettors look for. Any time you’re getting a cheaper number than what the most respected books are charging—paired with an EV% advantage—the play is mathematically profitable long-term, making this Over a +EV bet worth grabbing.
Bet #2 Connor McDavid Over 3.5 Shots On Goal
Book: NoVig
Odds: -123 (Can take up to -135)
Connor McDavid Over 3.5 Shots on Goal is a strong play tonight, driven by elite scoring form and recent volume. McDavid has already piled up 30 goals on the season—2nd most in the NHL, a number that reflects his increasing shoot-first mindset. That aggressiveness has translated directly into shot production, as he’s cleared the 3.5 SOG line in 4 of his last 5 games, consistently generating high-danger looks at even strength and on the power play. Edmonton continues to lean heavily on his ice time and offensive zone workload, and when McDavid is rolling like this, sportsbooks often struggle to keep pace with rising volume. With elite finishing ability, top-tier usage, and a hot streak behind him, backing McDavid to hit Over 3.5 shots is the logical side.
This McDavid over 3.5 shots on goal bet is +EV because the available price of -123 is meaningfully better than the broader market and sharp consensus. Multiple sharp books are dealing this line much shorter at -170, -160, and -156, signaling stronger implied probability than the number you’re getting. Based on that market data, the fair value is -135, so locking in -123 creates a clear edge. That discrepancy results in a +4.2% expected value, meaning you’re beating both the sharp money and the true price implied by the market.
Bet #3 Buffalo Bulls Moneyline
Book: ProphetX
Odds: +128 (Can take up to +132)
Tonight’s Buffalo Bulls moneyline has real value because Buffalo is 13-3 and 6-1 at home this season, showing they perform significantly better in front of their own crowd and can close out tight games — something Kent State hasn’t done consistently on the road. Despite Kent State’s solid scoring numbers, Buffalo’s efficient offense and defensive rebounds give them a measurable edge, and model projections (from recent simulations) actually favor Buffalo to win straight up. Furthermore, the Bulls’ recent form and stronger MAC record contrasts with Kent State’s inconsistency in key matchups, meaning the moneyline at reasonable odds represents a spot where the wager’s implied probability is lower than Buffalo’s true chance to win, making it a sharp play for bettors who believe home court advantage.
This Buffalo Bulls moneyline is a +EV play because the market is offering +128, which is well above where sharp money and fair pricing suggest it should be. Several sharp books are already shorter on Buffalo at +107 and +110, indicating respected bettors see a higher true win probability than the current number implies. Based on those sharper prices, the fair value is +122, so grabbing +128 gives bettors a clear edge. That gap translates to a +2.7% expected value, meaning you’re beating both the sharp consensus and the true market price by locking in Buffalo at an inflated number.
Bet #4 Fland Over 4.5 / Under 4.5 Assists
Books: Bet365 / ProphetX
Odds: +155 / +155
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Fland Over 4.5 Assists on Bet365 at +155 odds for $83.47. If this side hits you win $212.
Let's say you take George Under 4.5 Assists on ProphetX at -121 odds for $116.53. If this side hits you win $212.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $212
No matter the result you make at least $12.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
