Happy Friday! We have a huge slate upcoming tonight. CFB Peach Bowl Oregon vs Indiana. 10 NBA games, 3 NHL games, and 14 CBB games throughout the day. Let's end the week off on a high note with a sweep. Let's jump right into the sports betting picks for tonight!
Bet #1 Oregon +8.5 Spread
Book: Hard Rock
Odds: -185 (Can take up to -198)
Despite Indiana’s undefeated season and early win over Oregon, history and matchup dynamics favor a tighter game this time — in four of the five College Football Playoff rematches like this, the team that lost the first meeting ended up winning the rematch, suggesting Oregon could flip the script. Oregon’s defense is elite, ranking among the top in the country by yards and points allowed (around 267.4 YPG and ~15.1 PPG) and has held opponents in check consistently, including a 23–0 Orange Bowl shutout. Quarterback Dante Moore (3,280+ yards, 28 TDs) gives Oregon enough offensive firepower to keep it within one score, and the Ducks’ ability to score efficiently in the red zone adds value to the underdog line. Taking +8.5 gives you a cushion if Oregon’s defense keeps this tight late and the Ducks — battle tested all season — adjust better in a rematch scenario.
Taking Oregon +8.5 grades out as a clear +EV play because the market is telling you the number should be shorter. Sharps are consistently pricing the Ducks tighter — major sharp books are hanging +7 to +7.5, with labels in the graphic showing FanDuel at -235, DraftKings -264, and another sharp book -225, all implying Oregon should be a smaller underdog than +8.5. Pick The Odds’ EV tool lists the Fair Value at -198, meaning the true probability of covering is higher than the price you’re paying at -185, creating 2.3% Expected Value on the wager. Anytime sharp books disagree with widely available lines, especially with +1 or more points of cushion in a key bowl game, you’re backing the side the smartest money believes is undervalued — making Oregon +8.5 a mathematically justified +EV position.
Bet #2 Shaedon Sharpe Over 3.5 Rebounds
Book: Bet365
Odds: +115 (Can take up to +101)
Shaedon Sharpe has pushed past the 3.5 rebounds line in multiple recent games, including 5 boards vs Utah and 5 vs New Orleans, and going back a bit five-rebounds nights in other contests show he’s been capable above that threshold consistently. He’s averaging around 4.3–4.8 rebounds per game on the season, giving him a solid floor to clear a 3.5 reb line if he plays starter minutes and is active around the rim. The Blazers play at a middle-to-above-average pace (~101–102 possessions per game), which creates more shot attempts and rebound opportunities for all players. With Portland’s roster construction and games featuring a lot of missed shots and rebounding chances, Sharpe’s athleticism, position on the floor, and recent box score history support taking him over 3.5 rebounds in your bet.
This Over 3.5 rebounds play is +EV because you’re getting +115 at bet365 while the sharp books are pricing it significantly shorter at -118, -115, and -104, showing clear market disagreement in your favor. When the most efficient sportsbooks are shaded heavily to the over and a softer book lags behind, that’s a strong indicator of mispriced odds. Based on those sharper lines, the fair value is +101, meaning +115 offers a meaningful edge. That gap translates to an estimated +7.0% expected value, making this a mathematically profitable bet over the long run.
Bet #3 Tyler Bertuzzi Over 0.5 Points
Book: BetRivers
Odds: +110 (Can take up to +106)
Tyler Bertuzzi’s Over .5 points looks like a very reasonable bet because he’s been consistently involved in his team’s offense, registering 5 points in his last 5 games and sitting at 34 points on the season, which shows he gets rewarded with scoring chances regularly. Bertuzzi is averaging offensive ice time in key situations — including power play minutes — and has been noticeable around the net and on secondary scoring lines, where his shooting and playmaking translate to point production more often than not. Given his recent form, consistent usage, and the fact that scoring is more distributed across this lineup (meaning he’s less likely to be shut out), the odds of him getting on the scoresheet at least once are strong. All signs point to this being a logical and potentially profitable Over .5 points play tonight.
This Over 0.5 points play on Bertuzzi is +EV because BetRivers is offering +110 while the sharp books are tighter at -111, -110, and -110, indicating the market consensus prices this outcome as more likely than the listed odds suggest. When multiple sharp sportsbooks agree at a shorter price, it’s a strong signal of true probability. Using those sharper lines, the fair value is +106, so grabbing +110 gives you an edge. That discrepancy results in a +1.9% expected value, making this a small but positive long-term play.
Bet #4 Northern Kentucky / Milwaukee Over 74.5 Total Points 1st Half
Book: Fanatics
Odds: +105 (Can take up to -101)
Taking the Over 74.5 points in the first half between Northern Kentucky and Milwaukee makes sense when you look at how both teams play and what they’ve shown recently. Northern Kentucky pushes a relentless pace, ranking near the top of their conference in tempo and early-game scoring, while Milwaukee isn’t shy about getting out to fast starts, often pushing the ball in transition and attacking the rim aggressively. Both teams have consistently come out firing in their last several outings, with each squad posting high first-half point totals thanks to uptempo possessions and loose defensive starts. With this combination of quick pace, early offensive aggressiveness, and both lineups showing they can score in bunches before halftime, the projected total under 75 simply seems too low — making this Over a logical play based on game flow and scoring trends.
This 1H Over 74.5 total points is a +EV bet because +105 is available while the sharp books are aligned well below that at -115, -106, and -115, signaling the true probability is meaningfully higher than the offered price. When multiple respected books converge on a much shorter number, it’s a strong indication the over is correctly favored by the market. Based on those sharper odds, the fair value is -101, so getting +105 creates a clear pricing edge. That difference results in an estimated +2.9% expected value, making this a solid long-term profitable position.
Bet #5 Demin Over 15.5 / Under 15.5 PRA
Books: Bet365 / Bovada
Odds: -110 / +170
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Demin Over 15.5 PRA on Bet365 at -110 odds for $117.16. If this side hits you win $223.
Let's say you take Demin Under 15.5 PRA on Bovada at +170 odds for $82.84. If this side hits you win $223.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $223
No matter the result you make at least $23.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
