Happy Thursday! In our last blog the picks went 2/3! Sadly Kon had a rough shooting night and couldn't clear 19.5 points. Onto tonight we're aiming for that sweep. On deck for the slate tonight we have: Ole Miss vs Miami CFB playoff game, 4 NBA games, 12 NHL games, and 58 CBB games throughout the day. Let's jump right into the sports betting picks for today!
Bet #1 Ole Miss Moneyline
Book: Stake
Odds: +121 (Can take up to +116)
Ole Miss on the moneyline is a strong play tonight because this Rebels offense — paced by standout QB Trinidad Chambliss and dynamic RB Kewan Lacy — matches up extremely well against Miami’s grind-it-out approach. Chambliss has been one of the most efficient dual-threat quarterbacks all season, averaging over 300 passing yards and adding significant rushing production, while Lacy has consistently powered Ole Miss on the ground with a strong yards-per-carry and big-play scoring ability, giving the Rebels a true one-two punch that can exploit Miami’s run defense. Offensively, Ole Miss ranks top-10 nationally in scoring and explosiveness, averaging around 37+ points per game and a high success rate in the red zone, while Miami’s offense, though efficient, operates at a slower pace and leans heavily on defense to win possessions. With this contrast in tempo and mismatches on both sides of the ball, taking Ole Miss to outscore Miami outright on the moneyline tonight feels justified — especially if Chambliss continues to sustain drives and Lacy controls the clock. 
This Ole Miss 1Q Moneyline is a clear +EV spot because we’re locking in +121, which is well above where the market and sharp books are pricing this outcome. Respected sharp sportsbooks have Ole Miss closer to -101, +100, and +110, signaling that professional money views this closer to a pick’em rather than a true underdog. The fair value is +116, so we’re getting roughly 5 cents of edge versus the true price. That difference results in a +2.3% expected value, giving us long-term profitability by consistently beating both the sharp market and fair value. When your number is better than what sharps are taking elsewhere, that’s exactly the type of inefficiency you want to attack.
Bet #2 Andrew Wiggins Over 14.5 Points
Book: BetMGM
Odds: +120 (Can take up to +112)
Andrew Wiggins is a strong candidate to clear the Over 14.5 points tonight because he’s shown a clear scoring rhythm recently, topping this line in two of his last three games, and he’s carrying a 15.9 points per game average on the season, which already exceeds the threshold we’re betting. The matchup further supports this projection: the pace of both teams favors more possessions, meaning more scoring opportunities, and Wiggins tends to benefit when the game opens up and the defense focuses attention elsewhere. He’s also been finding easier looks in transition and from mid-range, where he’s been efficient, and with his team leaning on his scoring in stretches, 15+ points is well within his expected output. Given the combination of his season scoring rate, recent form, and favorable game environment, the Over 14.5 looks like a logical play.
This Andrew Wiggins Over 14.5 Points is a strong +EV bet because we’re getting +120, which is notably better than the rest of the market and where sharp money is pricing this prop. Other respected books and sharp indicators have this line priced tighter at +110, -110, and +103, showing consensus that this over should be closer to even money or worse. The fair value is +112, so grabbing +120 gives us about 8 cents of edge versus the true price. That gap translates to a +3.8% expected value, making this a profitable long-term wager. When you’re consistently beating both sharp books and fair value on player props, that’s exactly the kind of inefficiency you want to exploit.
Bet #3 Brent Burns Over 1.5 Shots On Goal
Book: ProphetX
Odds: -123 (Can take up to -137)
Brent Burns Over 1.5 SOG at -123 grades out as a +EV play thanks to clear market value and strong projection support. Sharper-priced books are well above this number, with major operators hanging -156, -185, and -137, signaling that sharper markets expect the over to hit at a much higher rate than the listed line. Pick The Odds projects a Fair Value of -137, meaning the offered price is mispriced by more than 14 cents, and the model assigns a +4.9% Expected Value, reflecting a meaningful edge over the sportsbook. Add in Burns’ recent shooting volume and consistent role, and backing the over isn’t just trend-aligned—it’s mathematically profitable based on market consensus and implied hit rate.
Bet #4 Tennessee State / Western Illinois Under 148 Total Points
Book: Fanatics
Odds: -110 (Can take up to -119)
Tennessee State vs Western Illinois Under 148 Total Points looks like a smart wager when you stack the available tempo and efficiency data. Both teams play at among the slower paces in college basketball, with Tennessee State’s offensive possessions per game ranking near the bottom nationally and Western Illinois similarly reluctant to push the ball in transition, which naturally suppresses scoring opportunities on both ends of the floor. Defensively, Tennessee State clogs the paint and contests shots, while Western Illinois limits opponent efficiency inside the arc, two traits that help keep overall point totals low even when defenses aren’t elite. When you combine these pace-suppressing styles with recent trends showing both squads posting under-expected scoring outputs relative to their averages, the 148 line feels generous, making the under a logical, stats-backed lean for bettors focused on tempo and efficiency rather than inflated totals.
Tennessee State vs Western Illinois Under 148 at -110 rates as a +EV wager because the market clearly believes this total should be lower. Multiple sharp books are pricing the same number much shorter, with major operators posting -135, -127, and -150, indicating heavy lean and sharper action toward the under. Pick The Odds models project a Fair Value of -119, giving backers nearly a full nine cents of edge against the available line, translating to a +3.8% Expected Value—a meaningful margin in college basketball totals. When the wider market consensus shades significantly toward a lower-scoring outcome and the betting public still has access at -110, you’re getting the better side of the price, making the under a mathematically profitable +EV position.
Bet #5 Martinelli Over 23.5 / Under 23.5 Points
Books: Fanatics / UniBet
Odds: +155 / -124
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Martinelli Over 23.5 Points on Fanatics at +155 odds for $82.93. If this side hits you win $211.
Let's say you take Martinelli Over 23.5 Points on Fanatics at -124 odds for $117.07. If this side hits you win $211.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $211
No matter the result you make at least $11.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
