Happy Wednesday! Yesterday's picks went 3/3 for the 100% sweep that's what i'm talking about! Let's go back to back today, for today's slate we have: 12 NBA games, 5 NHL games, and 50+ CBB games. Let's jump right into the sports betting picks for tonight!
Bet #1 Kon Knueppel Over 19.5 Points
Book: Bet365
Odds: +130 (Can take up to +106)
Kon Knueppel’s scoring profile makes a strong case for taking over 19.5 points tonight. He’s averaging 19.5 points per game on the season, already placing him right at the number he needs to clear, and his recent production trends suggest even more upside. Knueppel has surpassed this mark in three of his last five outings, showing dependable scoring volume and growing offensive confidence. He’s also seen his usage rise in recent games, taking on a larger share of possessions and consistently getting into double-digit shot attempts, which naturally increases his scoring ceiling. With his perimeter shooting ability and willingness to attack mismatches, Knueppel’s current trajectory supports the over, and the matchup sets up well for him to continue delivering near or above a 20-point performance.
Kon Knueppel’s Over 19.5 points at +130 on bet365 stands out as a +EV play because the rest of the market is pricing this prop significantly shorter, signaling sharper expectation toward the over. Multiple sharp books have this same line between -102 and -113, showing that respected operators believe Knueppel is more likely to clear this number than the +130 price implies. The calculated Fair Value sits at +106, meaning bet365 is offering a clear edge compared to where the line should be priced based on true odds. That gap creates an 11.5% Expected Value, making this not just a good number, but one where the bettor is statistically gaining long-term profit by taking advantage of inefficient pricing in the market.
Bet #2 Ivan Demidov Over 1.5 Shots On Goal
Book: NoVig
Odds: -120 (Can take up to -140)
Ivan Demidov Over 1.5 Shots on Goal at -120 grades out as a +EV play thanks to clear market discrepancy across the board. Sharp books are pricing this same prop between -162 and -167, showing they expect Demidov to clear two shots at a much higher probability than the posted number suggests. The calculated Fair Value lands at -140, meaning the -120 price carries built-in value that isn’t being reflected by more efficient operators. That gap produces a 7.1% Expected Value, signaling long-term profitability by siding with the more favorable number before the market corrects. Anytime you can back the same prop 20+ cents better than where the smartest books sit, you’re grabbing legitimate edge—making this Demidov SOG over a strong value-based play.
Bet #3 VCU / Saint Louis Under 176 Total Points
Book: BetRivers
Odds: -150 (Can take up to -163)
When looking at taking the VCU / Saint Louis under 176 total points, the main logic is that despite both teams’ offensive efficiency, the pace and defensive traits suggest limited scoring opportunities relative to the posted total. Saint Louis sits around ~75.8 possessions per game, a tempo that isn’t elite fast-paced and often correlates with games staying under big totals. VCU scores a high number of points per game (87.2) but also benefits from turnovers and offensive rebounds that don’t always translate to extended possessions, and their defense allows opponents roughly 73–74 PPG, keeping games tighter than the point total implies. Meanwhile, Saint Louis’ elite scoring average has come with efficient shooting, not necessarily extra possessions, and their defense can clamp down and limit scoring runs, especially in half-court sets. When combining these trends — controlled tempo, strong defenses forcing contested shots, and statistical history of lower combined outputs between these programs — the UNDER is a reasonable lean versus an inflated number like 176.
This total is a +EV bet because you’re getting Under 176.5 at -150 while the sharpest books are already priced much heavier, with sharps showing -205, -200, and -188, signaling strong market agreement on the under. Based on that sharp consensus, the fair value is -163, meaning -150 is a clear discount relative to true odds. That gap creates an expected value of +3.4%, which is driven by both line inefficiency and confirmation from sharper sportsbooks that this total should be priced significantly lower.
Bet #4 Carrington Over 4.5 / Under 4.5 Assists
Books: Sportzino / NoVig
Odds: +115 / +138
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Carrington Over 4.5 Assists on Sportzino at +115 odds for $105.08. If this side hits you win $225.
Let's say you take Carrington Under 4.5 Assists on NoVig at +138 odds for $94.92. If this side hits you win $225.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $225
No matter the result you make at least $25.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
