Happy Monday! Picks Thursday sadly went 1/3 our worst hitting rate day in a while. Unfortunately Giannis ended up playing so that hurt Barnes's rebounding opportunities, he also only played 18 minutes. And not only did West Georgia not cover the spread, they lost outright. I'm ready to get that nasty 1/3 taste out of my mouth and lock in for the 3/3 sweep. For todays slate we have the CFB national championship game Indiana vs Miami. 9 NBA games, 10 NHL games, and 40 CBB games. Let's jump right into the sports betting picks for tonight.
Bet #1 CJ Daniels Over 3.5 Receptions
Book: Fanatics
Odds: +135 (Can take up to +114)
If you’re betting CJ Daniels Over 3.5 Receptions, the data strongly backs that angle: he’s cleared this 3.5 catch line in 8 games already this season—not just in cupcake wins but including both College Football Playoff games against Ohio State and Ole Miss where he finished with 5 and 4 receptions, respectively. Daniels has 46 receptions on the year in 12 games for a 3.8 per game average, well above the 3.5 mark. With Miami projected or playing as an underdog in key matchups and needing to keep up offensively, they’ll likely be in pass-heavy scripts where Beck attempts plenty of throws—his 23-of-37 for 268 yards in the Fiesta Bowl semifinal illustrates the volume he’s capable of when the game is close. Coupled with Daniels’s strong target share, reliable hands, and production against quality competition, this makes Over 3.5 receptions a fact-driven play rather than a longshot.
This CJ Daniels Over 3.5 Receptions prop is a clear +EV spot, showing a +9.8% expected value based on market-wide pricing. While this book is offering +135, the fair value sits around +114, creating a sizable edge of over 20 cents compared to true odds. Even more telling, the sharpest books in the market are dealing this line significantly shorter — with respected sharp prices showing +100 and +103, and one shop as low as -110, indicating strong professional agreement that the Over is mispriced. That kind of discrepancy between a plus-money number and near-even or juiced sharp lines is exactly what bettors look for in positive EV plays. When you’re consistently getting +135 on a prop the market believes should be closer to +110 or shorter, you’re locking in long-term value regardless of single-game variance — making this a textbook +EV bet.
Bet #2 James Harden Under 9.5 Assists
Book: Hard Rock
Odds: -110 (Can take up to -131)
James Harden Under 9.5 Assists is a strong betting angle backed by the numbers: he’s currently averaging just 8.1 assists per game on the season, a full 1.4 assist gap below this line, which tells you the current number is already optimistic relative to his production. Recently, Harden has gone under this line in 3 of his last 5 games, showing a clear trend of lower playmaking usage in recent matchups. Even in games with decent scoring or usage, his assist totals have been capped by usage share dips or role adjustments as teams shift offensive balance. When you pair Harden’s season average and recent under performances with the volatility of his assist distribution — especially in games where scoring takes priority or Houston pushes pace — the Under 9.5 looks grounded in real production tendencies rather than short-term spikes, making it a sensible bet from a statistical and trends perspective.
James Harden Under 9.5 Assists stands out as a strong +EV wager, showing an 8.3% expected value edge based on market consensus. While this book is hanging -110, the true fair value is closer to -131, meaning you’re getting a meaningful discount relative to the actual probability. The sharpest sportsbooks in the market heavily support the Under, with respected sharp prices posted at -164, -140, and -137, signaling clear professional alignment that this line is too high. When multiple sharp books are pricing an outcome 20–50 cents shorter than what’s widely available, it’s a textbook indicator of mispriced odds. Locking in -110 on a prop the sharp market believes should be firmly juiced creates long-term profitability, making this a clean, data-backed +EV bet rather than a narrative-driven play.
Bet #3 Jordan Eberle Under 1.5 Shots On Goal
Book: NoVig
Odds: +135 (Can take up to +124)
Jordan Eberle has struggled to generate consistent shot volume recently, going under 1.5 shots on goal in 3 of his last 5 games, which highlights a clear trend of limited shooting involvement. Over the larger sample, his per-game shooting rates have dipped compared to career norms, especially when deployed in deeper rolling lines or against tighter defensive matchups, making it harder for him to get quality looks. He’s also seen a slight decline in individual offensive metrics like shot attempts and scoring chances created per 60 minutes this season, indicating that his role in driving offense isn’t aligning with this elevated line. When you combine his recent under performances with the statistical trend of lower shot volume and usage shifts, the Under 1.5 Shots on Goal looks far more realistic than the market line suggests, giving bettors a strong value opportunity.
Jordan Eberle Under 1.5 Shots on Goal presents a clear +EV opportunity, carrying a 4.7% expected value edge based on sharp market consensus. While this book is offering a generous +135, the fair value sits closer to +124, giving bettors an immediate pricing advantage. The sharpest books in the market are notably shorter on the Under, with respected prices showing +106, +110, and +113, signaling strong professional confidence that this outcome hits more often than the public line implies. When multiple sharp sportsbooks are pricing an outcome 20–30 cents lower than what’s widely available, it highlights a mispriced prop. Locking in +135 on a bet the market believes should be closer to +120 or shorter creates long-term edge, making this a disciplined, math-driven +EV wager rather than a narrative-based play.
Bet #4 Prairie View A&M vs Alcorn State Over 72.5 Total Points 1st Half
Book: Bet365
Odds: +112 (Can take up to +102)
This Total Points 1H Over 72.5 is a clear +EV spot based on market discrepancy and sharp alignment. Bet365 is offering Over 72.5 at +112, while sharp books have already priced this number much shorter, with comparable lines sitting at -114, -110, and -110, implying a true probability far higher than what +112 suggests. When you normalize the sharp pricing, the fair value comes out around +102, giving this wager roughly a 5.0% expected value edge over the market. That gap indicates Bet365 is lagging behind sharper consensus, allowing bettors to buy an inflated price on a number that professionals have already bet into. From a pure betting perspective, this isn’t about the teams—it’s about beating the line by grabbing plus-money where the sharp market says it should be closer to even money.
Bet #5 Wallace Over 3.5 / Under 3.5 Rebounds
Books: FanDuel / Bet365
Odds: +215 / -155
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Wallace Over 3.5 Rebounds on FanDuel at +215 odds for $68.62. If this side hits you win $216.
Let's say you take Wallace Under 3.5 Rebounds on Bet365 at -155 odds for $131.38. If this side hits you win $216.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $216
No matter the result you make at least $16.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
