Happy Thursday! Yesterday's picks went 2/3. Ingram cashed easily, Kane didn't even attempt a shot. But sadly Western Carolina lost by 12 which means we got hooked with our +11.5. That left a sour taste in my mouth so i'm looking for the 3/3 sweep today. The sports in action today include, 8 NBA games. 8 NHL games, 50+ CBB games. Let's jump right into the sports betting picks for today!
Bet #1 Dylan Harper Under 3.5 Rebounds
Book: Bet365
Odds: -130 (Can take up to -148)
If you’re targeting Dylan Harper Under 3.5 rebounds, the data strongly supports that outcome: he’s averaging just 3.2 rebounds per game this season, which is below that prop line on a per-game basis. Over his last 5 games, Harper has grabbed 14 rebounds total — an average of around 2.8 rebounds per game, meaning he’s gone under 3.5 in 4 of those 5 outings recently, including rebounds lines of 1, 3, 4, 3 and 3 boards in those contests. Even looking at the last 10, he’s averaged closer to 3.0 rebounds, indicating that his recent performance trend continues to sit below the 3.5 mark. As a guard playing roughly 21–22 minutes per night in a Spurs rotation that includes strong rebounders like Victor Wembanyama and Julian Champagnie commanding boards inside, Harper’s opportunities on the glass are limited, keeping this prop tilted toward the under.
Dylan Harper Under 3.5 rebounds is showing as a +EV opportunity based on sharps’ action and the fair value line. The market has him listed at -130, but sharp bettors from multiple sources (BM at -171, F at -180, D at -167) have all lined the under more aggressively, signaling strong professional consensus. The calculated fair value of -148 is below the current book line, giving this bet a positive expected value of roughly 5.7%, meaning over the long run, bets here are statistically profitable. Harper’s season average of 3.2 rebounds combined with a trend of going under in 4 of his last 5 games aligns with the sharps’ perspective, reinforcing that this line is priced too high and represents real betting value. This is a textbook example of exploiting market inefficiency where professional bettors are consistently ahead of the public line.
Bet #2 Jake Walman Over 1.5 Shots On Goal
Book: NoVig
Odds: -122 (Can take up to -135)
Walman has cleared this shots line in each of his last 5 games, a clear trend of him generating offensive attempts. Over that span he’s racked up 13 total shots, which works out to 2.6 shots per game, comfortably above the 1.5 threshold and showing consistency in his shooting role on the power play and at 5‑on‑5. His ice time and offensive deployment on a top‑end blue line unit give him steady opportunities to shoot, and the sustained recent volume suggests this isn’t a fluke but a real pattern you can lean on. For bettors looking for a prop with momentum and a statistical edge, Walman’s sustained shot creation makes the Over on 1.5 look well supported by form and usage.
This Pittsburgh Penguins vs Edmonton Oilers bet on Walman, J to have over 1.5 shots on goal at -122 represents a clear +EV opportunity. Sharps are showing strong confidence with their own money: -160, -152, and -165 across major sharp books, which is consistently above the market line. The calculated fair value is -135, meaning the current market line of -122 is offering a slight edge, giving an EV of roughly +4.4%, as highlighted in the graphic. Essentially, the sharps’ action indicates they expect Walman to exceed this shots threshold, and the line hasn’t fully caught up—betting here allows you to capitalize on that market inefficiency and lock in long-term expected value.
Bet #3 Texas State / Costal Carolina Under 142 Points
Book: Caesars
Odds: -110 (Can take up to -119)
the Under 142 points holds strong appeal based on recent offensive profiles and defensive trends. Coastal Carolina averages roughly 73.4 points per game while allowing about 72.6, and Texas State posts similar scoring near the low‑to‑mid 70s, meaning both teams sit near or under 75 combined points per contest rather than in high‑scoring territory, which compresses total output. Additionally, Coastal Carolina’s field goal efficiency is middle of the pack (about 40.97% FG), and they excel on the defensive glass—ranking top in defensive rebounding—which often limits second‑chance points that drive totals over. Texas State’s defense also tends to keep scoring modest, and in their recent games both squads have shown scoring volatility with points in the 60s and low 70s, not high‑octane outputs. Finally, historical head‑to‑head totals have skewed under more often than not in prior meetings, reinforcing a trend toward lower combined scores. For bettors looking to stay conservative, the Under 142 aligns with tempo, efficiency, and defensive rebounding realities for both teams.
This Under 142 total is a +EV play because the market’s sharpest books are already pricing it significantly lower than the available line. Multiple sharp sportsbooks have this total juiced to -135, signaling professional money consistently backing the under, while you can still grab Under 142 at -110, creating clear line value. Based on aggregated sharp pricing, the Fair Value sits around -119, meaning you’re beating the true price by nearly 9 cents. That discrepancy translates to an estimated +3.5% EV, which is a strong edge for a totals market. When sharp consensus, fair value, and available odds all align like this, it’s a textbook +EV bet.
Bet #4 Washington Over 6.5 / Under 6.5 Rebounds
Books: Bet365 / Hard Rock
Odds: +130 / +125
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Washington Over 6.5 Rebounds on Bet365 at +130 odds for $99. If this side hits you win $227.
Let's say you take Washington Under 6.5 Rebounds on Hard Rock at +125 odds for $101. If this side hits you win $227.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $227
No matter the result you make at least $27.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
