Happy Friday! In our last blog the picks went 3/3! 2 sweeps in the 3 days, and a 2/3 day in between isn't too shabby I would say! Let's keep up this hot streak onto tonight! For the slate tonight we have 8 NBA games, 8 NHL games, and 50+ College Basketball games throughout the day. Let's jump right into the sports betting picks for tonight!
Bet #1 Bobby Portis Over 13.5 Points
Book: TheScore
Odds: +110 (Can take up to -104)
Bobby Portis has been trending in the right direction offensively, making the Over 13.5 points a compelling play, especially given his recent scoring form. Over his most recent stretch of meaningful games, Portis has consistently delivered or come very close to this line, showing he can produce double-figure scoring on a regular basis — and in several outings he’s topped 13.5 or been right around it, with his usage and offensive involvement remaining steady even with lineup shifts. While his last 5 games show an average around the low-teens, he’s demonstrated enough scoring versatility — including rebounds, putbacks, and occasional three-point scoring — to surpass 13.5 when his minutes and shot attempts tick up, and his season scoring average sits just over 13 points per game, underscoring that this line is well within his reach on any given night.
This Bobby Portis Over 13.5 Points play qualifies as a clear +EV bet based on both market comparison and sharp money alignment. The Over is currently available at +110, while sharp sportsbooks are pricing the same line significantly shorter at -128, -115, and -102, indicating strong professional agreement on the Over side. When you aggregate those sharper prices, the true fair value lands around -104, meaning bettors are getting a substantial edge by locking in +110. That gap translates to roughly a +6.9% expected value, which is well above the threshold most bettors look for when targeting long-term profitability. Anytime you can grab plus money on a prop where the sharp consensus implies a favorite, you’re not just betting on performance — you’re betting into a mispriced market, which is exactly where sustainable edges are found.
Bet #2 Dallas Stars Moneyline
Book: NoVig
Odds: -143 (Can take up to -148)
Taking the Dallas Stars Moneyline against the Blues is supported by fundamental matchup dynamics rather than short-term results or pricing. Dallas is built to control games through puck possession, depth scoring, and defensive structure, consistently generating a higher share of shot attempts and high-danger chances at even strength, which naturally leads to sustainable goal production over a full game. The Stars also roll multiple scoring lines, making them less dependent on any single unit and harder to game-plan against, while their blue line is strong at limiting clean zone entries and second-chance opportunities. Against a St. Louis team that relies more heavily on transition offense and struggles when forced into extended defensive zone time, this matchup favors Dallas’s ability to dictate pace, win the territorial battle, and apply steady pressure — all fundamental indicators that typically translate into a higher probability of winning in regulation and overtime.
This Dallas Stars Moneyline qualifies as a +EV wager because the available price is meaningfully better than the broader sharp market consensus. Dallas is currently listed at -143, while multiple respected sharp sportsbooks are pricing the same side much shorter at -161, -164, and -157, signaling that professional money consistently values Dallas as a stronger favorite. When those sharper prices are aggregated, the fair value projects closer to -148, meaning bettors are getting a discount of several cents by locking in -143. That difference creates an estimated +1.5% expected value, which may seem modest, but over a large betting sample is exactly the type of edge that drives long-term profitability. This isn’t about predicting outcomes — it’s about identifying when the market lags behind sharp opinion, and this line presents a textbook example of that inefficiency.
Bet #3 UMass / Buffalo Over 75.5 Total Points 1H
Book: BetRivers
Odds: +110 (Can take up to +104)
Backing the UMass / Buffalo Over 75.5 Points tonight is grounded in the pace and offensive tendencies both teams bring to this matchup. UMass and Buffalo both rank toward the higher end of their conferences in tempo and possessions per game, meaning they naturally play in up-and-down styles that produce more scoring opportunities. Buffalo’s offense has consistently posted efficient shooting splits — particularly from three — and UMass profiles as a team that generates offense through quick ball movement and transition chances, increasing the likelihood of extended scoring runs. Neither defense is elite at forcing turnovers or limiting opponent field goal percentages, which further tilts this game toward a faster pace and higher combined score. When you combine these factors — accelerated tempo, effective shooting, and defenses that struggle to consistently clamp down — the ingredients are in place to realistically clear the 75.5 point mark in regulation.
This Over 75.5 first-half total is a clear +EV look because the market price is lagging behind sharp consensus. We’re getting +110 when the calculated fair value is +104, which translates to roughly a 3.0% edge—a meaningful margin in sports betting terms. More importantly, respected sharp books are already dealing this number at -110, -106, and even -100, signaling that efficient markets expect this total to hit more often than the current price implies. When sharper books are shaded toward the over and a softer book is still hanging plus money, that’s exactly the kind of discrepancy you want to attack. You’re not betting the outcome—you’re betting the number—and in this case, the number is simply too good relative to where the true odds should be.
Bet #4 Rangers / Sharps Over 1.5 / Under 1.5 PP Goals
Books: UniBet / Bovada
Odds: +165 / -130
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Rangers / Sharps Over 1.5 PP Goals on UniBet at +165 odds for $81. If this side hits you win $212.
Let's say you take Rangers / Sharps Under 1.5 PP Goals on Bovada at -130 odds for $119. If this side hits you win $212.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $212
No matter the result you make at least $12.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
