Happy Friday and happy new year! In our last blog we went 4/4 for the 100% sweep! A great way to end 2025. Let's get that hot streak rolling into 2026 as we look to have back to back sweeps. We have a great slate of games today to go for the sweep with. 4 CFB bowl games, 10 NBA games, and 33 CBB games throughout the day. Let's jump right into the sports betting picks for tonight.
Bet #1 Kedrick Reescano Over 39.5 Rushing Yards
Book: Bet365
Odds: +115 (Can take up to +100)
Kedrick Reescano’s running game has been one of Arizona’s most consistent offensive weapons in 2025, and there are solid reasons to take him over 39.5 rushing yards: in the 9 games he’s played this season he’s totaled 394 rushing yards on 83 carries (4.7 YPC), including at least four games with 46, 90, 94 and 51 yards — all comfortably above the 39.5 SMU’s rushing defense this season has been vulnerable at times, allowing over 105 yards per game on the ground and giving up 161, 138, 110, 159, 128 and 122 rushing yards to opposing rush attacks in individual games, underscoring a consistent weakness in stopping the run. Reescano’s tendency to produce multi-carry workload games and Arizona’s confidence in his rushing ability, combined with SMU’s middling run defense, makes the Over 39.5 rushing yards a fact-based bet with strong statistical support.
Kedrick Reescano Over 39.5 rushing yards at +115 qualifies as a clear +EV bet based on market disparity and sharp consensus. While bet365 is offering +115, the fair value on this line is +100, creating a 7.5% edge compared to true odds. Sharp sportsbooks are already signaling value on the over, with Bookmaker pricing it at -112 and Pinnacle at -115, showing respected money is laying juice on the same side. When sharp books are shaded heavily toward the over while a soft book is still offering plus money, it creates an exploitable inefficiency. The combination of sharp alignment, a favorable price gap, and a +7.5% EV makes Reescano Over 39.5 rushing yards a mathematically sound long-term profitable play.
Bet #2 Cam Spencer Over 2.5 Rebounds
Book: Hard Rock
Odds: +100 (Can take up to -113)
Cam Spencer Over 2.5 rebounds is a strong bet supported by both his season production and recent form: he’s averaging 2.6 rebounds per game on the year, just above the line, which shows this number is grounded in his typical contributions on the glass. Even more compelling is his recent stretch — he’s cleared this 2.5 rebound mark in 4 of his last 5 games, demonstrating a trend of consistently hitting and exceeding this total against a variety of opponents and game flows. Given his role minutes, aggressive rebounding instincts, and this recent consistency, taking Cam Spencer Over 2.5 rebounds is backed by clear statistical rationale and recent performance data you can confidently include in your blog.
Cam Spencer Over 2.5 rebounds at +100 stands out as a strong +EV bet due to clear market disagreement and sharp alignment. While Hard Rock is offering even money, multiple sharp sportsbooks are heavily juiced on the over, with DraftKings at -128, Bookmaker at -127, and FanDuel at -138, signaling respected money expects this line to cash more often than not. The fair value is priced at -113, meaning +100 represents a meaningful edge over the true odds and results in a 6.0% expected value. When sharp books are forcing bettors to lay significant juice on the over while a softer book lags behind at even money, it creates an exploitable inefficiency — making Spencer Over 2.5 rebounds a mathematically sound +EV play.
Bet #3 Morez Johnson Over 6.5 Rebounds
Book: DraftKings
Odds: -105 (Can take up to -116)
Morez Johnson Over 6.5 rebounds is supported by both season-long efficiency and matchup context against USC. He’s averaging 6.8 rebounds per game on the year, already above this line, and has cleared 6.5 rebounds multiple times this season, reinforcing that this number falls within his normal statistical range. Johnson consistently logs frontcourt minutes for Michigan and plays a physical role around the rim, which keeps his rebounding floor stable regardless of scoring usage. USC has also shown stretches of allowing opposing bigs to rack up rebounds due to pace and shot volume, creating additional board opportunities. When you combine Johnson’s reliable rebounding average, proven ability to exceed this line, and a matchup that projects ample rebound chances, the Over 6.5 rebounds stands out as a well-supported, data-driven play.
Morez Johnson Over 6.5 rebounds at -105 profiles as a solid +EV bet due to sharp market support and a favorable price versus fair value. While DraftKings is offering -105, sharp sportsbooks have already moved this number with FanDuel at -135 and TheScore at -140, indicating respected money backing the over. The fair value on this line sits at -116, meaning -105 provides bettors with an edge over the true odds, resulting in a 4.8% expected value. When sharper books are forcing significantly more juice on the over while a softer book lags behind, it creates a clear pricing inefficiency — making Johnson Over 6.5 rebounds a mathematically sound +EV play.
Bet #4 Jefferson Over 1.5 / Under 1.5 3's Made
Books: FanDuel / UniBet
Odds: +310/ -112
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Jefferson Over 1.5 3's on FanDuel at +310 odds for $63.17. If this side hits you win $259.
Let's say you take Jefferson Under 1.5 3's on FanDuel at -112 odds for $136.83. If this side hits you win $259.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $259
No matter the result you make at least $59.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
