Happy Tuesday! Yesterday was our first rough day in awhile, we went 2/4 sitting at 50% which of course is a bit below our target of 75%/100% but we're looking to get back on track today and we have a great slate to do it with. 4 NBA Games, 5 NHL Games, 3 CFB Bowl Games, and 40 CBB games throughout the day. Let's jump directly into the sports betting picks for today.
Bet #1 Jalen Duren Over 15.5 Points
Book: BetRivers
Odds: -134 (Can take up -151)
Jalen Duren over 15.5 points is a strong play because he’s authentically averaging north of this line on the season (about 18.5 PPG), ranking among Detroit’s top scorers and doing so on elite efficiency (over 60% FG) as a paint-dominating interior scorer. Beyond the average, he’s been on a heater recently — in multiple recent contests he’s routinely cleared this threshold, showing scoring consistency with dominant finishes (including a 23-point outing and an 18-point performance as part of Detroit’s recent games). His role as a lob threat, pick-and-roll finisher, and efficient post scorer in a Pistons offense that is one of the better scoring units in the league further supports that he’s not just capable of hitting 15.5, but likely to exceed it, especially given his recent run of productivity and usage on the block.
Jalen Duren Over 15.5 Points (-134) profiles as a clear +EV bet because the market is mispriced relative to sharp consensus. Multiple sharp books have this prop priced as high as -180, signaling strong professional action on the over, while the Fair Value is -151, creating a meaningful gap from the available number. That discrepancy results in an estimated +5.0% EV, which is a significant edge for a player prop. When sharper sportsbooks are aligned well above the market price and recreational books lag behind, it’s a strong indicator the line hasn’t fully adjusted—making this over a mathematically profitable position long term.
Book #2 Dawson Mercer Over 1.5 Shots On Goal
Book: NoVig
Odds: -127 (Can take up to -134)
Dawson Mercer Over 1.5 Shots on Goal is a smart play because he’s been consistently aggressive shooting of late, clearing this line in each of his last 5 games, showing a reliable pattern of shot generation regardless of matchup. On the season he’s a key offensive driver for his team with 10 goals and 24 assists, ranking him among his club’s most active scorers and playmakers. Mercer’s role on the top lines and power play units gives him plenty of opportunities to shoot, and his recent usage and shot volume trends support the idea that he’s not just likely to hit 1.5 SOG, but has made a habit of doing it — making this over a fact-backed, data-supported choice.
Dawson Mercer Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-127) qualifies as a +EV bet due to a clear pricing gap between the available line and sharp market consensus. Several sharp sportsbooks are dealing this prop significantly higher at -160, -162, and -165, indicating strong professional support on the over, while the listed Fair Value sits at -134. With the market still offering -127, bettors are getting a number below where both sharps and fair pricing suggest it should be. That difference translates to an estimated +2.3% EV, making this a mathematically profitable edge when targeting long-term expected value.
Bet #3 USC -0.5 Spread 1st Quarter
Book: Hard Rock
Odds: -110 (Can take up to -122)
USC -0.5 1st Quarter Spread is a strong short-term play in their bowl game vs. Illinois because the Trojans typically come out with fast, aggressive offensive intent, especially in big games where setting the tone early is key. USC’s first-quarter scoring trends this season have shown them consistently building early leads, often establishing rhythm quickly on both sides of the ball, while Illinois has struggled to start fast against quality competition. The matchup also favors USC’s pace and explosive playmakers getting into rhythm right away, making it likely they’ll outscore Illinois in the opening frame. Backing USC to cover a slim 1st-quarter spread capitalizes on their tempo advantage and history of strong early execution, giving this play solid situational and statistical support.
USC -0.5 1st Quarter (-110) stands out as a +EV bet because the current market price lags behind sharp consensus. Multiple respected sharp sportsbooks are dealing this same 1Q spread at -130, -134, and as high as -145, signaling strong professional money backing USC early, while the Fair Value is priced at -122. With bettors still able to grab -110, that gap creates a clear inefficiency in the market. The difference between the available line and where sharps have already moved it results in an estimated +4.8% EV, making this a strong value position that benefits from both sharp alignment and favorable pricing relative to true odds.
Bet #4 Western Michigan Broncos +11 Spread
Book: Fanatics
Odds: -110 (Can take up to -116)
Western Michigan +11 Spread is an appealing play because the Broncos’ style and recent trends suggest they can keep this game closer than the number indicates. WMU plays at one of the faster paces in college basketball, which helps them generate more possessions and scoring opportunities — particularly valuable when they’re underdogs, as it increases variance and scoring volume. Defensively, Western Michigan has shown the ability to limit opponent efficiency inside the arc, and when combined with an offense that pushes tempo, they’re well-positioned to stay within a double-digit spread. Meanwhile, their opponent has had inconsistencies slowing teams down, meaning WMU should avoid getting blown out and instead stay competitive throughout, making +11 a smart hedge that takes advantage of pace, offensive rhythm, and matchup dynamics.
Western Michigan +11 at -110 grades out as a clear +EV play because sharp money is consistently pricing this spread shorter than what’s being offered. Major sharp books are dealing this line in the -124 to -136 range, implying the true probability is much higher than the -110 price suggests. Based on that market consensus, the fair value comes out to around -116, meaning you’re getting several cents of edge by locking it in at -110. With an implied edge of roughly 2.4% EV, this is a classic case of beating the closing line by following where the sharps are already positioned and taking the best number available.
Bet #5 Thomas Over 34.5 / Under 34.5 Rushing Yards
Books: PlayNow / Bet365
Odds: +160 / -115
This is an arbitrage bet meaning you bet on both outcomes and no matter what happens in the game you win money.
Let's say you take Thomas Over 34.5 Rushing Yards on PlayNow at +160 odds for $83.66. If this side hits you win $217.
Let's say you take Thomas Under 34.5 Rushing Yards on Bet365 at -115 odds for $116.34. If this side hits you win $217.
Total amount invested: $200
Total amount returned: $217
No matter the result you make at least $17.
All of these picks were found via Pick The Odds. Pick The Odds is a comprehensive sports betting platform designed for bettors seeking to gain an edge through data-driven tools and real-time analytics. With tools such as the Odds Screen, Positive EV, Arbitrage, and more we have you covered for all yours sports betting needs.
